Solar And Batteries Are Thriving Even In Trumps America

TITLE: Solar and batteries are thriving — even in Trump’s America | Zero: The Climate Race CHANNEL: Bloomberg Podcasts DATE: 2026-06-25 ---TRANSCRIPT--- The US renewables industry is dead. Killed by a president [music] who hates wind turbines and loves supporting the fossil fuel industry. That’s the narrative we often hear coming out of the US right now. But is it true? This is zero. I am Axhatraati. This week, what’s really happening to the renewables industry in the US? [music] President Donald Trump’s administration has taken a big swipe at clean energy policies in the US, gutting tax credits for wind and solar, removing subsidies for electric cars, and even using taxpayer dollars to halt the development of offshore wind farms. That has [music] certainly hurt the country’s clean energy credentials. But if you look at the deployment figures, renewables are still winning. 90% of all new power generating capacity added to the grid last [music] year was made up of solar, wind and batteries. The same thing is expected to happen this year. So why the discrepancy between the narrative and the deployment? One place we can try to find an answer is in the US state of Arkansas. It is now home to the Steel River Energy Center which will become one of the largest solar and battery storage projects anywhere [music] in the US. When all three phases are completed in 2029, it will have 2.5 gawatt of solar and 2.9 [music] gatt hours of battery storage. That plant alone will be enough to power a small city. My guest today is playing a leading role in that [music] building frenzy, having secured $3.5 billion in financing. His name is Kevin Smith and he’s the chief executive officer of Cypress Creek Energy. He spent the last two decades working in renewables in [music] the US and abroad. And he believes everything points to a future powered by solar and batteries, even in the US. But given the barriers that the Trump administration has put up, can that really happen? The government keeps raising tariffs on China, does it have enough of its own manufacturing capacity for clean energy? And do companies building artificial intelligence, the core reason for rising electricity demand in the US, really care if it comes from renewables?

Welcome to the show, Kevin. Thank you very much. It’s nice to be here. So, you’ve been in the energy industry for 40 years, two decades in oil and gas, and then the last two decades in renewables. And you’ve seen many ups and downs in both industries. In the US specifically right now, the narrative is that the US renewables industry is under attack from the Trump administration and the future for the industry is dire than it has ever been before. Is it true? Uh well, the first part is true, the second part is not true. Um so certainly the industry has been under attack by the administration. Frankly, you know, with Americans struggling to to pay their electric bills, doesn’t make sense uh to be attacking the uh most affordable coh energy cost out there with with solar and and renewables generally. Um so yes, the industry has been has been under attack with policy changes and policy issues with the with the administration. However, the industry is thriving. If you look at 2025 and 2026, um you know, upwards to 90% of all new generation is renewables, primarily solar and and battery storage has been upwards to 80% of new generation is solar and and and battery storage. And largely that’s because it’s the most affordable cost of energy. And so right now, you know, the deployment figures do reach this record. But one of the reasons why we are seeing a sped up deployment in 2025 and 2026 is because there were these tax credits that are supposed to expire. So from July 4th, 2026, if your solar plant is not under construction, you are not going to be getting US government credits. Is the boom then over? Uh no, not at all. And in reality the the you know projects to qualify for the tax credits um you know have certain conditions where they can qualify for starter construction. They need to be in into commercial operation by the end of

2030. Um so we have you know a number a number more years where tax credits will be applied and frankly that helps keep you know electricity prices down. My view is with or without tax credits, and I think the industry’s view is with or without tax credits, we’re the most competitive source of of electricity out there. You take away the tax credits, it raises the the cost of the most affordable um electricity price. Um but we’re still, you know, much more competitive than than natural gas or certainly more competitive than than nuclear, new nuclear or new coal. But I’m looking at Bloomberg NF forecasts for solar for example and they peak in 2026 and start to decline all the way till 2031 and only really reach the 2026 levels in 2032. So there is a decline. It’s not like it’s going to zero. It’s going from something like 50 gawatt built which includes all types of solar by the way down to 40 gawatt and then back up to 50 in 6 years time. But there is a decline right. Well, I I mean, you could argue whether it’s the decline or whether we have this, you know, kind of short-term boom um that’s resulting in a a increase in in renewables for a short period of time while the tax credits are still in effect. And then it goes back now down to a normal level. I mean, even the normal level, I mean, 40 gawatt a year, um, you know, if a decade ago you said we’re going to build 40 gawatt a year of wind when we were building, I don’t know, a tenth of that, it would be kind of an amazing figure to look at. So 40 gawatts a year is is, you know, hundred billion dollars of construction on renewable energy projects, which is tremendous amount of growth. So, you’ve just signed this $3.5 billion financing deal for one of US’s biggest solar and battery projects. Just to put it in context, China, India, and even the UAE have built far bigger projects, but for the US, it is one of the biggest. How long does it take to build it?

It’s about a two just over a 2-year construction period. I mean, the first phase will start generating electricity by um say mid 2028. The first two phases um are 1.6 gawatts of solar PV and then 1.9 gawatt hours of uh battery storage. There’s a third phase. They’re kind of three equal phases. So there’s a third phase that we’re hoping to start construction on later this year or early next. That third phase would be into operation by the end of 2029. Where are the solar panels and batteries for these projects coming from? Um the solar panels are 100% US-made for solar. Um so it’s and and they’re you know uh First Solar has some overseas manufacturing but but these these these panels are 100% made in the US. Um we’re also quite proud that that it’s the vast majority of the steel is actually being manufactured in Mississippi County, Arkansas. You know, we like to refer to the project as built on Arkansas steel. The batteries are coming from LG and they’re US manufacturing as well. you know, for those that that think you can’t um supply um the renewable energy industry with US manufacturing, that’s happening as we speak. I mean, tens of billions of dollars have been invested in US manufacturing. Um and that’s continuing to supply and and will continue to supply um US renewable energy projects for the foreseeable future. And what about the battery metals that LG uses to be able to make those batteries? Well, that I mean there are some certainly there are some components that are coming from overseas. Um you know I don’t think you could pull pull look at one energy industry supply whether it’s natural gas or nuclear or coal and and look at and say are 100% of all components coming from US manufacturers. I would like to think that renewable energy, you know, the the percent of components that are coming from US is greater than most of those other other uh electricity supply. Um, you know, a lot of the nuclear technology now is overseas. Two out of the three main gas turbine manufacturers are overseas. Like I said, I think renewable energy and and solar and and battery storage specifically are are are being dominated by US component supply. And you talked about the fact that you know solar and batteries are now the cheapest that can be offered to US consumers. How much cheaper would they be if there were no restrictions on imports? Well, that would you know I mean we’ve got two things happening. One is is that the tax credits are being taken away and you know we’re paying you know probably for solar panels. We’re probably in some cases paying triple what the rest of the world is paying. you know, um, you know, we’re, you know, panel prices right now, solar module prices are in the, you know, call it, you know, 32 to 38 cent range depending on the time of year and and and who your supplier supplier is. You know, the rest of the world can can get uh less expensive panels in the in the low teens, 12, 13 cents a a watt. And all that all that tariff is being passed through to to electricity consumers. So you and I are paying that in our electricity bills. Well, I am based in London, so not me yet, but uh certainly I’m paying it in my electricity bills. All those tariffs are, you know, have to be passed through into capital costs and passed through into electricity prices. And what about batteries? If you compare no imports with tariffs on Yeah. I mean, we’re similar issue. It’s probably not triple. I would probably say it’s it’s certainly close to double what international projects are are dealing with with regards to battery costs because of the tariff issues. Um so as I said that increases uh capital costs and it increases prices to consumers. A solar battery project right now is about $2,500 a kilowatt in the US. You said roughly if you take these reductions and tear away the trade barriers what could it come down to? um you’re certainly probably under 1,500 I would think given where the cost is today and where the trade barriers are and where future looks like which doesn’t look like it’s going to come down anytime soon these trade barriers. How does the pipeline for you and developers like you look like today? Well, obviously we have projects that we’re proceeding with in the over the next several years that would qualify for tax credits. as the tax credits start to roll off, we’re going to have to increase our electricity prices, you know. So, I like to talk generically about a a $60 megawatt hour solar project um today with tax credits without tax credits is probably more like $85 or $90 a megawatt hour. But you compare that against a natural gas project, combined cycle project with, you know, top-of-the-line equipment, you know, high efficiency gas turbines, you’re probably in the $120 to $140 a megawatt hour range. So, we’re still even with rolling off the tax credits and with paying all these tariffs, we’re still cheaper than than a natural gas combined cycle facility. And so for this first phase of the Steel River Energy Center in Arkansas that you’re building, where is the electricity going to go? I’m assuming a data center. In reality, that that project is grid connected. Okay. So, we we sell 100% of our electricity to the grid. Um we have a we have a I’ll say a financial contract with a tech player that will be announced uh next month. Um, but Energy Arkansas is is receiving all the all the energy onto their transmission system and they’re distributing it across their network. Like I said, we have a financial structure with a a tech player to give us a guarantee on the price that we’re getting for our electricity. That’s a bit more financial transaction. The actual electrons are going to the grid and being distributed by Energy Arkansas. 7 8 years ago you did an interview with CGTN where you said you know India and China are building a lot of renewables because those are the countries where electricity demand is growing at 7 8% and when there is growth the industry grows you can now say the same thing in the US but that electricity demand is now finally growing maybe not 8% but it’s growing 3 4 5%. And a lot of that is to do with AI and data centers. One thing that we’ve seen in these data center stories is that these companies want to build these data centers really quickly and then they want an uptime that is 99.9% of the time. Now solar and batteries can be built fast. You know, you’re talking about 2-year project to build one of the largest solar and battery project in the US. But gas and batteries can keep the uptime that they need. And right now it seems like gas plus batteries are winning out. How can renewables compete with those constraints? I mean that’s interesting interesting uh I’ll say statements in there. So there’s a few things going on. One is my view is the vast majority of data centers if in order to get 99.999 or even 99.9 really need to be grid connected. Okay. So there are a number of projects, you know, we had a debate internally about how many of those behind the meter projects were getting built that were off-rid and had this mix of gas and batteries and solar. It’s really kind of a handful. Okay, the vast majority of data centers are in order to get that reliability are going to need to be grid connected. with that as a backdrop that most of them will be grid connected then solar and battery storage is a great tool for the utilities to provide you know affordable energy. Um they’ve got a mix you know their own base where where includes a mix of fossil fuels and nuclear and renewables to serve that load. So, you know, and and we are looking at, you know, for a data center that does need a behind the meter solution, we are looking at a mix of of solar and battery storage and and potentially some natural gas in there. But, but like I said, my view is 80% plus of data centers that go in are going to be grid connected. That might be true this year, next year. Uh but it looks like when I look at again projections from Bloomberg NEF’s new energy outlook that was just recently published purely a data centerdriven addition on the grid. It starts to become gasheavy starting in 2027 all the way to 2035. By 2035 we are looking at 80 to 90% of the additional power demand for data centers being met by gas. Are they wrong? I’ve looked at other projections, you know, from the International Energy Association, from, you know, the National Energy Resources, from, you know, Wood McKenzie. We’re still seeing substantial amount of growth and supply from solar and and battery storage. I mean, you you talked about 40 gawatts a year. Even 5 years ago, 40 gawatt was would be viewed as a tremendous amount of growth in the in the solar space. projections will be interesting to see how that all sorts itself out. I mean, what’s happening today? 90% of all new generation is coming from renewables and battery storage. Now, will that change? Yes, I believe there will be more natural gas put onto the onto the system. But when you talk about, I’ll say grid connected, you know, nuclear and and and and natural gas, you know, they need that $120 to $140 price round the clock. Okay? So even when power prices drop to 20 or $30 in the middle of the night and the grid could provide very coste effective power um because demand is low in the middle of the night that gas turbine project or that nuclear project’s got to continue to generate in order to pay its off its its capital costs. So this is where I think the global numbers and the US numbers actually diverge drastically. And you look at a global picture and the global picture certainly says that a lot of the power demand will be met by solar and batteries, a little bit of wind. But when it comes to the US, it’s the only place, the only large economy that is increasing its gas power load from 2025 to 2035. But you don’t think that’s the case because financially renewables have to win? Um, I’ll say yes. The simple answer is yes. I mean, the dynamics in the US are a little bit different. Number one is we’re penalizing heavily with tariffs uh renewable energy. So, we’re forcing we’re forcing prices higher than they normally would be. The rest of the world isn’t doing that. The rest of the world is trying to do the opposite is is is restricting barriers. The other dynamic is that US does have an abundance of natural gas. Um and and and our cost of natural gas is cheaper than the rest of the world. Now as we build more LNG terminals and natural gas becomes a bit more like oil, a commodity, a worldwide commodity as opposed to trapped gas in the US, then the price of natural gas will rise and that’ll affect obviously you know the build. I’m, you know, very bullish on solar and and and battery storage even at the 40 to 50 gawatt level that that we talked about, you know, because I actually, you know, solar largely, if you look at the projections, you know, from 20 years ago and from 15 years ago and from 10 years ago, solar has beaten all of those projections and I’m pretty bullish that it’ll continue to do that. One other bearish uh note on solar that I should bring up then is uh the residential solar industry in the US uh which installed about 4 GW of solar in 2026 15% lower than last year and less than half of what was installed in 2023 and a large part of that is because of the removal of federal subsidies uh on rooftop solar and the fact that you have all these tariffs etc. you don’t worry that that kind of impact that’s come on a residential solar will come to the utility scale projects that you work on. It’s a completely different market. You know, I mean, putting 20 or 30 panels on a on a roof is a whole lot more expensive than, you know, building 2 million panels on farmland in Arkansas or on a in a in a ranch in Texas. So the demand that we’re seeing on the on the solar side is is going to continue to to to grow our business. After the break, I asked Kevin whether President Trump’s anti-wind crusade is going to come to solar. Going back to your point about electricity demand and that’s sort of helping the solar and battery boom in the US. There is a fear that perhaps maybe all this demand may not pan out. Um that could be a bare case for AI data centers. The other bare case could be that AI data centers are not popular. Lots of people oppose them uh just for how they look or the noise they produce or others oppose them because they are increasing power bills as you talked about that could also start to reduce the number of data centers that get built in the US just from a power demand perspective if that comes to pass if there is not quite the bull case for power demand for data centers does it affect the future for renewables you think in the US well you know as As I’ve kind of said, you know, multiple times, the the, you know, solar and battery storage is the most affordable. Okay. And it’s also quick quickest to market. Now, a behind the meter natural gas fired project for a data center that needs to provide 59’s reliability is a very expensive facility. Um, if the data center load goes down and you don’t have as many of those behind the meter projects, then you you’ll likely it’ll come out of the natural gas side of the of the model, not so much out of the solar and and battery storage, which is largely grid connected solar. Some people talk about data center is about 50% of the growth, you know, or 60% of the growth that we’re going to see in in electricity demand. But there’s electrification going on across the across the country. You know, manufacturing activities, you know, electric vehicles. We are continuing to see growth that is non-data center related. But as you point out, if that data center growth doesn’t materialize as we expect, my expectations are it probably means that we build less natural gas. It’s worth mentioning wind as well. In 2025, President Trump signed an executive order halting the permitting of new wind projects. That was challenged in courts and a federal judge blocked that executive order. And this month, the Trump administration has decided not to appeal. But then there is a new case that’s been brought by renewable groups who are suing the US government because the Pentagon, the Department of Defense is holding back the review of wind power projects which has really brought wind development to a halt. Do you think this this anti- wind crusade is going to come to solar? It doesn’t appear that it will. Okay. Um, and and mostly because I think I think the economics are clear and the and the the amount of solar and and battery storage that’s that’s helping helping the grid and helping keep electricity prices down. It doesn’t make any sense to try and shut that off. It’ll it’ll likely raise electricity prices, but the administration seems to have, I’ll say, a non-economic um non-technical adverse reaction to to building wind, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense either, quite frankly. Now, taking more a global view, and you know, you’ve worked in renewable energy projects outside of the US as well. One framing that shows up again and again is that look oil and gas companies they are high risk but high reward. Renewable energy companies now they’re kind of low risk low reward. Do you think low profitability in renewables is holding back the industry? Historically, returns, you know, over the last five years, returns on investments in renewable energy have have been lower than on the oil and gas sector. Postco and and the and the the war in in Ukraine and now the the the war in in Iran, we have seen over the last couple of years returns because of the demand. We have seen returns for renewable energy projects improve substantially but they are lower risk. Okay, which you know you know a lot of utilities, pension funds, you know, other investors like that lowrisk profile that renewable energy provides. So there is a segment of the market that likes to drill and and and is willing to take those high risk high return higher return potentially higher return projects. And there’s also a significant segment that that’s looking for lower risk, but still strong returns. I mean, we’re we’re seeing pretty strong returns in the renewable energy sector these days. Um maybe not quite as high as a return if you decide you want to do a, you know, wildcat drilling program in West Texas, but it’s a completely different risk profile. Is there anything that can be done to increase the profitability of renewable energy industry? You know those things have a tendency to to sort itself out based on supply and demand of investors as well. If there was a a shortage of investors in re renewable energy, you would see returns rise. Okay. But there isn’t a shortage of investors in the renewable energy sector. Both on the debt side, you know, tax equity, you know, while those tax credits exist and and the equity players like ourselves, you know, there isn’t necessarily a shortage. Um, but like I said, returns have have have risen, you know, to double digits over the last several years. And so, you know, we see adequate and and I’ll say substantial amount of invest investment appetite still looking at investing tens of billions of dollars of year per year in uh in renewable energy projects. We are seeing though in markets where solar penetration has been high that investments are starting to slow down because you’re getting so many hours of what we call negative electricity prices essentially there’s too much solar than what the the grid can consume that of course is encouraging battery storage but it has just because of the negative electricity prices and hours hundreds of hours now here in Europe for example um it’s starting to slow down the deployment of solar as a result and also of course it affects the profitability of those projects. Is there a way that not just batteries but other demand side projects could take off? Are you seeing the growth of projects that want to take advantage of negative priced electricity come through run only in the hours when those prices exist? Um yes, I mean there there are industries that you know I mean cryptocurrency is probably the one of the bigger ones you know they you know where where they can kind of run when electricity prices are low. You know there are other industries that are looking at that. I mean the US market is is quite a bit different and you know to a to a large extent less advanced from renewable energy than some of the European countries. So, you know, while California and Texas, talk about times of the year where there’s 50% of the energy is coming from renewables, you don’t see that in, you know, Arkansas and Indiana and Pennsylvania and Alabama and, you know, those kinds of places where you see maybe a few percent um coming from renewable energy. So, the the ability and the areas for growth across the US are still, you know, still pretty tremendous. I mean, you could see, you know, dramatic increases in those markets over the next couple of decades, and it would take them a while to get up to 50% supply from renewable energy. So, one thing that’s worth noting in these uh 2026 record figures for solar installation is that 74% of all solar capacity that was installed in the first quarter of 2026 was in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Arizona, and Mississippi. all that voted for Trump. These are the places that are seemingly loving solar. Do you see that kind of wedge showing up at US politics in maybe the midterms or the next presidential election where this attack on renewables turns into people wanting a leader that actually brings renewables regardless of climate goals, but just because it’s cheap. It definitely should. And it’s not just what what’s critical is it’s not just we’re building projects in those in those markets. You know, the vast majority of the manufacturing jobs that have been created over the last 5 years in the renewable energy sector is in those same same states. I mean, First Solar’s manufacturing facilities, you know, historically the the legacy facilities in Ohio, they built new facilities in Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina. Okay. Uh, Next Power, um, LG, you know, QC cells, there’s and there’s just a long list of manufacturers that have built manufacturing, tens of thousands of jobs, tens of billions of dollars of investment in red states. Okay, the figure was more than 80% of all manufacturing for renewable energy is in red states. So I mean that is not having as a big effect as you would think, but it’s starting to resonate. One reason why the oil and gas industry seems to get its way is because it has had for a long time a very powerful lobby. The renewable energy industry is newer uh but is also as some people say not as organized. You’re part of that industry. What are you doing to try and improve your political chances in the elections to come? We’re participating in the industry groups. I mean there’s you know the three main industry groups that affect renewable energy and and solar you know the solar energy industry association you know called sea there’s ACP which is American clean power and there’s and there’s ACOR which is American Council on Renewable Energy those three groups are the three largest industry groups and and we are trying to to to kind of mobilize from a a lobbying activity um and policy and also trying to make sure that those three groups are working together. I’ll say the main difference is you know while you know renewable energy is is the most affordable supply out there it’s also and and as you mentioned it’s a lower risk low lower return. So you know the oil and gas industries have been have been thriving for 100 years. you know, you’ve got, you know, record profits during the the the current war in Iran and record profits when the war in Ukraine broke out. That profitability is is a lot more muted in the renewable energy industry. So, the the oil and gas industry, you know, outspends uh probably 100 to one the renewable energy industry in lobbying efforts. And unfortunately, I think that’s likely going to continue. I think we’ve got the right message. We don’t have the right lobbying dollars behind it. We’re trying to figure out ways to to increase the voice uh of renewable energy and get that message out that this is the most affordable electricity supply out there without having to spend the massive dollars that the oil and gas industry does on lobbying and and policy activities in DC. So would you conclude that the narrative that the renewables industry’s future in the US is dire is not true? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. I made a conscious choice. Okay. You know, I was in the nuclear industry. I spent a good portion of my career, you know, upwards of 20 years developing natural gas projects both in the US and internationally. My view is this is going to be a solar world. Okay. It’s just a question of when. Thank you, Kevin. Thank you very much. And thank you for listening to Zero. Now for the sound of the week. [music] [snorts] That is the sound of a steam engine [music] recorded by Robert Dudsick. If you like this episode, please take a moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcast, Spotify, and YouTube. This episode was produced by Oscar Boyd. Our theme music is composed by Wonderly. [music] Special thanks to Ma Chediak, Somadi, Laura Milan, and Shahon Chan. I’m Akshhati. Back soon.