Iran War Fallout For India Energy Chabahar Trade And Strategy

TITLE: Iran War Fallout for India: Energy, Chabahar, Trade & Strategy • #ThreeGoodGenerals CHANNEL: PGurus DATE: 2026-04-23 URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnEWRdwUAso

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Namaskar. Hello and welcome to PGurus channel. This is Three Good Generals. Unfortunately, General Rajiv Narayan couldn’t make it. But we have General Dushant and General Shankar.

[Host]: General Dushant, your thoughts on the Iran war fallout on India. I just finished doing a three-minute concise summary of what happened in the last 24 hours. I’m concerned that now global prices are going to go through the roof. A 4,000-mile extra detour for all ships going from Asia to Europe and beyond.

[Gen. Dushant]: You’ve hit the nail on the head. The impact of the current situation — we are in for a very long haul. That will have a direct impact on two or three things, but we have a shield also, so I would like to be a little positive on that aspect. There is a definite impact on the energy front. Prices are going to stabilize at around $120 to $150 a barrel. If that is going to be there for a long haul, then it will have a direct impact on our home front. Things will start becoming costly. The subsidies which we were giving — I think they will be the first to be hit, whether it is in oil, gas, or CNG. If those subsidies are taken out — the government is also holding on primarily because of the elections. Once the elections are over, we may see a rise in oil and energy prices. There will be a ripple effect. Inflation may become very high.

The second big challenge I see is that the diaspora will become very restless. There are almost 1 crore people in that part of the region. If their remittances stop, and they start coming back, that will be a major shock for our country.

People say, what is the alternative? The alternative is diversion. There will be a detour of 2,000-odd kilometers, but we have shown in the past that we are willing to stomach the ire of Europe and the US and go in for Russian oil if required. If we get Russian oil at a discounted price, we may be able to mitigate the impact.

The shields: first, Russian oil — good old friends. We already have a strategic agreement. We have not really annoyed the Russians in a major way. While we might get oil from Venezuela and other places, America etc., the cost factors would increase in those cases.

The second shield is the monetary management of the RBI. That’s quite good. RBI will be able to stabilize the prices through their various initiatives — repo rate, interest, etc. If the rupee is stable vis-à-vis the dollar, we might be able to extract more products out of the same dollar. If the dollar and rupee start fluctuating widely, that will have a great impact on our economy.

This war has had a very unpredictable trajectory. You find one day an agreement is nearly about to be reached, then suddenly things go bad — Indian ships get fired upon, a whole lot of things happen, and the second round of talks go out. But imagine what kind of pressure Iran is also under. To my mind, Iran will succumb, and succumb soon, given the kind of pressure it is going through — leave aside all its maneuverings, asymmetric warfare, Iraqi resistance force. Ultimately Iran is likely to succumb. Short-term, I’m placing another two to three weeks. Medium-term, maybe one and a half to two months, unless Russia and China keep abetting it — providing support in the space domain, technology domain, or surging their manufacturing of missiles and drones. But ultimately people of Iran have to eat something. They have to survive.

Two scenarios. First: Iran succumbs with the existing regime weakened but the highly enriched uranium remaining in its control. If that happens, there will be diplomatic constraints for India, because we will not be able to reach out to Iran — and because of that, our connectivity investments (Chabahar, road connectivity to Afghanistan, North-South Transit Corridor) — these we will not be able to do anything with. It might turn out to be a sunk cost. April 26th, if I’m not wrong, is the last date when the waiver of Chabahar port gets over by the US. If they extend it, fine. But in the current situation, I don’t think that is going to happen.

The best state is that Iran succumbs in the short term with HEU also taken out. In that eventuality I’m sure there will be a regime more acceptable to not only the US, not only Israel — acceptable to the entire region with Mostazafan being sidelined. IRGC also has a limit to fight. It cannot fight endlessly unless the Iranian army jumps into the fray. Based on the last few days’ events in the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC seems to be active, and some reports I’ve got — I don’t know whether correct — that generals are not even listening to the Imam or Ayatollah. There is some rift. Liberals and hardcore people are emerging. If IRGC gets weakened, Iranian army and liberals will call the shots. A neutral Iran might emerge.

Our reserves are intact. National reserves are intact. We have not touched any critical resources. We are managing with our surpluses. The only thing is that the subsidies might take a hit after elections.

Overall, I look at the situation in Iran as unpredictable. It might collapse tomorrow, or it might not. War has two phases — intense phase and normal phase. This looks like a normal phase where both sides are gambling with each other, calling each other’s bluff. I don’t want to comment on the US because Trump comes out with all kinds of statements. He’s commented on Indians, etc. — doesn’t behove of a presidential level personality. But what the US is doing otherwise, I think they are on track to militarily crush Iran. With Gerald Ford, and now George H.W. Bush carrier moving into the area, that looks a greater possibility.

[Host]: Thank you, sir. Indonesia is also mulling putting a toll on Malacca Strait. Activity is picking up. General Shankar, over to you.

[Gen. Shankar]: The first thing I want to put across: what is the fallout of this whole story today. The whole world is looking at energy. India is looking at elections with terrific voter turnout. Proper democratic exercise is going on in Tamil Nadu and Bengal. Politically India is stable. Political stability is the basic stability a country needs to move forward.

China is virtually out of the equation in the past 54 days. Why? And I’ll do a full show on this later. I believe there is an audit of all weapons going on in China. Very interesting. And there is the Zhang Youxia-Li Lianyi problem that has not sorted out. There are things happening — like an underground test whose ripples are coming out slowly. I don’t think China has the military capability or the political bandwidth to interfere. So China is out of the equation.

Russia is swinging both ways. It’s got oil surplus but doesn’t have gasoline till July. There’s no gas, and Ukraine is still hitting it. The US is doing its trick. Trump thinks he’s riding on a tiger himself because it’s oil surplus.

Right now, look at Iran. Everyone thinks Strait of Hormuz means oil doesn’t go out. Iran has all that. What will Iran do with the oil sitting in the Strait of Hormuz or beyond in the Gulf? Nothing. And they don’t get grain in another 15-20-30 days if this blockade continues. Iran won’t get grain. So what does it do?

This is a low-cost option for the USA. They have to put 20 ships there, which they’ve done — got everything ready — and they’re stopping anything going in. There’s no fighting going on, and the Houthis have been paid off. Virtually been bought. So they’re not going to interfere. The only action is the blockade.

Saudi Arabia’s almost 50% of oil comes out through Yanbu. It’s not as if nothing is going out. Another 30-40% of UAE oil comes out through Fujairah. Gulf is not the only source of oil in the world. Gulf was only 30% of the whole world. Out of that 30%, about 50% is still coming out. And any case, Iran oil was only for China. It was not for anyone else. So that was discounted out.

Energy availability in the rest of the world is largely stabilized into a steady state — lesser but stabilized. Other countries have stepped up. Approximately 50% of the gas coming out of Qatar has been made up by other countries. Shortage is there, anything up to 30% globally. Even in India I showed a graph — we are short of about 30%. So the world has got into a steady state. Like COVID days — we started coping. The whole world is coping.

Who will cope better? Obviously we are in a better situation. Why? Because you have refining capacity. The world may have crude oil everywhere, but there’s no refining capacity anywhere else. The refining in Jamnagar — people have to come here. They’ll not go to China after what has happened.

If our government is smart and they look at macroeconomic stability, they will not increase prices. Whatever discount they give at the pump, they can get out of refined capacity exports. They have a formula — giving 1x discount, getting 2.5x from exports. Maybe instead of 100 you might pay 105 rupees for petrol per liter — 5% or even 10%. Four years back you were paying 108-110 rupees during COVID. It’s not alarming. It’s not going to upset your macroeconomic fundamentals.

What we need to worry about: first, Pakistan. Pakistan has got its tail up now. It’s in a bad shape — loan upon loan — and IMF is hesitant to give even the first tranche of that $7 billion. But will it affect Pakistan at the end? No. Will it affect the common Pakistani? No. If that doesn’t happen, Asim Munir might be tempted to do something nasty. That’s the thing we have to worry about. If you see the trajectory of Asim Munir, he’s always done something surprising. He’s shrewd, thinking three steps ahead. Not many of us can think that way. And now he’s got the wind of Trump behind him. So he’s got wind in his sails.

Second: this Iran war, the way Iran has fought and the way America has responded — a lot of equations of battles have changed. Do some backward integration with Russia-Ukraine, with what happened in May-12th affair, what happened with us in Sindoor — non-contact firepower base. Is there a case for us to rethink our defense policy, rethink our entire thing? America will be the most unreliable of the lot. We can’t rely on America after what has happened. The tweet Trump has put out today — no government will touch that. How do you reconfigure your security system? We have to rethink our relationship with USA — what will be the character, the trajectory.

We have to rethink the equation between Saudi Arabia and India, Iran and India, UAE and India. And seriously think about the Malacca Strait and this belt. Six months back, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia invited India to be part of patrolling the Malacca Strait — please come and patrol, they are small states and don’t have much capacity. Is there a case for us to now formalize that, taking Hormuz because this is something which is very important?

The 10-degree channel and 6-degree channel in Andaman and Nicobar goes through our EEZ. Is there a case for us to say — this is how passage will happen? Which means do you start focusing on Andaman and Nicobar or not? The 8-degree channel and 6-degree channel between Lakshadweep and Maldives also comes into play. The US did a FONOP outside Lakshadweep long back. Now we are looking at maritime laws, maritime norms, maritime trend lines changing — are we thinking about it? Your security and defense footprint has to increase.

[Host]: One thing for RBI — gather courage and peg Indian rupee to the dollar at 92, 95, even 100 — but say it’ll stay the same for about a year. India has a great opportunity to grow. You need to put up a couple of refineries in short order. If the rupee keeps fluctuating, it becomes that much harder. Number two — you mentioned Asim Munir has the wind of Trump behind his back. Sir, in my humble opinion, a wind and a fart are never too far away from Trump.

[Gen. Shankar]: I go with that.

I’ve been showing this for the past 3-4 days. There’s this chap called Chaitanya Chinchilkar in the US. A US army veteran who teaches military tactics says the most studied country at West Point currently is India, and its aerial offensive and defense capabilities. The current study involves Op Sindoor. India had 11 air bases and 9 terror training sites, intercepting over 700 missiles and drones in 88 hours to bring a nuclear nation to its knees — where they started begging the Americans to save them. Most Indians still don’t understand the gravity of what your country has accomplished. Every serious military tactician in the world has taken note and is studying the system. For a second I froze while a wave of both pride and apprehension washed over me.

The way we hit surgical strikes — really surgical in nature. We took a few losses, but they’re hardly losses compared to what USA has done. That’s why people from Peru are coming to General Dushant — to see the change. We need to invest more into our defense security, maritime security, even landward security.

[Gen. Dushant, showing slides]: Two variant options. Option one: a weakened Iran minus the HEU — uranium taken out — with regime character change, Mostazafan losing control. Best case option for us. Option two: Mostazafan and IRGC in full control. Option three: the dangerous one but least likely. The future is not so gloomy as people are pointing out.

Impact on oil, remittances — we have the shield: reserves, diversifications, RBI’s initiative. Hope RBI takes that strong gamble and keeps things fixed.

Real problem areas: weakened Iran strips India of regional partnership — Chinese and Russians might step in and close the net against India. Broader collapse of Iran would lead to refugee outflow. In the garb of these connectivities, terrorists could infiltrate. Asim Munir is smart enough to take advantage of what these guys have been doing since Zia-ul-Haq’s time — infiltrating sleeper cells.

What to monitor: ceasefire durability — daily basis. War duration — short-term or medium-term — I don’t think it will go long-term. It doesn’t have the heft of Ukraine. Negotiation outcome. Most unpredictable: the HEU plus Hormuz versus Iran’s hardened position and IRGC’s commands and actions. If this continues, war might go up to 1.5 months.

Even in Iran conflict, the Chinese have been very cleverly supporting the Iranians. I had been tracking land route supplies, shadow shipping. Today I found these guys are also selling satellites to Iran in orbit. Satellites in orbit. The Chinese are invested but not so heavily as to be seen overtly. That’s why Iranians achieved some success against Americans — destroying aircraft resources, MQ-9s, Warthog etc. Thanks to China and Russia. These two countries may step in quickly if there is no alternate.

Why can’t India, along with European nations — call it UN, call it any damn thing — create a body like the Board of Peace for Israel-Gaza, a Board of Peace for Strait of Hormuz? Combine together, and if there is a need to use force, we use force and clear the Strait of Hormuz. Two channels there — have to be controlled. 30-40 countries coming together, including parts of NATO now disillusioned with US policy. That will be the third front moving very effectively. India will have a say in a future geopolitical order. India is in France doing some negotiations for Strait of Hormuz. No need to build this kind of alternate route. Why are we only harping on Americans and Israelis? Americans will fall in line because ultimately they want to get out of this place. Israelis — I don’t take guarantee. But Americans will join the bandwagon.

[Gen. Shankar]: It’s not out of the box — very much in the box. If countries like France, Germany, UK, India get together and have some kind of organization that can pull the whole thing out, US will jump at it. Today they have no other choice but to go to Pakistan. And now Iran also says they’re not confident of Pakistan. So something has to come out.

[Host]: Sometimes I wonder if Trump is trying to effect regime change in the wrong country.

[Gen. Shankar]: Let me put it very bluntly. The Americans and the Pakistanis have a love affair. Call it legitimate, illegitimate — this is as old as Pakistan. The problem in Afghanistan went on for 10 years not because Afghanistan was the problem. The problem was Pakistan. They didn’t realize it. Same thing in USSR time — all the problem started in Pakistan. Pakistan is a problem.

Why did 9/11 happen? It didn’t happen because terrorists from all around came to USA. It started in Pakistan. If USA decides to be blind about Pakistan — you’ll get that result. You keep reinforcing a line of thought, the results won’t change.

If the talks fail, it is because of Pakistan. I’m very clear about it. No one knows what Pakistan is telling Iran. No one knows what Pakistan is telling USA. Three people lying to each other. Pakistanis don’t trust themselves. How can anyone else trust them?

[Host]: Churchill said — the Americans can be trusted to do the right thing after they have tried everything else. Every place I’ve seen, they don’t have a 360-degree vision — rather they have blinkered vision. The blinkers are put by other countries.

[Q&A]

Q: Ceasefire extended indefinitely, mostly due to shortage of weapons and munitions. Ukrainians feeling the pinch. Your views?

[Gen. Shankar]: I don’t think you’re completely right. In Ukraine, they might need modern weapon systems. But in Iran they’ve stopped using cruise missiles. They’re putting old bombs — those bombs in another 5-6 years would have finished their life. I don’t think they are really short. They needed a break from heavy bombing. Now they’ve gone into a low-cost option — this blockade. If they had cut down bombing by a few days and got the blockade into action at that time, results would have been much better. Their planning was faulty — holistic planning was not there.

Q: What is happening inside Trump administration — one day conversation with PM Modi for 40 minutes, next week calls India a hellhole?

[Gen. Dushant]: The second line is the answer to your first. Americans are studying India in such great length that they are realizing it is going to become a challenge. I’ve seen this one-on-one and in their writings. When they used to study Kautilya in one of the universities, they laughed at the concept of elephants being used as weapon systems. They always thought India was a country with snake charmers. Now they see India as a country going to be a challenge. They are dreading India will become a China. That’s why it is blow hot, blow cold by Trump. Even prior to or after Trump, India will be targeted — be prepared. There will be sophisticated presidents and diplomats who tell you in sugarcoated statements what they want. And people up front like Trump who speak their mind. I kind of appreciate that at least this guy is speaking his mind. Remember those spate of tweets during Op Sindoor — Indians are bad, dirty, blah blah. He’s just reflecting what the common American feels.

[Gen. Shankar]: Trump endorsed it. It’s about China and India. It’s in the larger context of immigration. But it’s a bad thing he’s done. Not in good spirit.

Q: Essential food supply to Qatar, UAE, Kuwait during blockade?

[Gen. Shankar]: Essential food supply will go in. Fujairah is still open. Roads from Fujairah. Yanbu is still open. Syria-Turkey, Syria-Jordan route. Won’t go in easily but will go in some manner. Pakistan’s 18,000 soldiers and their generals, majors, colonels are all going to be taking the Houthis head on. Let’s see what happens.

Q: What is India doing about its Kandla-bound ship captured and held hostage by Iran?

[Gen. Dushant]: First route — ensure safety of the ship, which I suppose has already been done. Getting out of Hormuz is a dangerous prospect — Iranians and Americans sitting at the mouth. India must step up on the pedal and take a leadership position — maybe kinetic action through other countries — to convey the message to Iran: partner, open the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise the world goes against you, and God save Iran.

India has a fairly dominant Navy in the Indian Ocean. After US, if there’s any Navy that can do these tasks — it’s not UK, not France, not US, not even China — it is India. India has the trawlers, has been training for these tasks. We want a global forum whereby we decide we will clear the Strait of Hormuz for good of the international community.

Q: Non-kinetic disruptions except energy?

[Gen. Shankar]: Fertilizers — everything will get into steady state for this year. Two weeks back I heard the IFFCO chairman — for this year we are home and dry. Only after 3-4 months things will start. The problem, if any, will come from Pakistan. At some point Pakistan will have to divert attention from itself — when this of being Trump’s barmaid finishes off, they’ll start looking this side.

Q: Is all this Iran war negotiation charade a precursor to the bigger deal with China?

[Gen. Dushant]: Not really. US wants China to be squeezed further. Can only be squeezed further if the oil supplies China gets 37% from Iran is choked. US doesn’t want to invest so much in China anymore — will create dependencies, further beer hug with China. May be a conflict later on. Could be guarantees of Taiwan being left alone, Philippines being left alone. But Strait of Hormuz and Iran attack is more against China rather than in favor of China.

Q: ASEAN countries don’t like India so much. Why?

[Gen. Shankar]: We don’t like Bangladesh buffoons coming here and talking like this. This chap is a buffoon from Bangladesh. He’s a beggar. Joy Bangla — you keep trolling India despite begging for petrol from India. You don’t have enough gas. Look at your own backside before talking about India and ASEAN.

Q: Old Tank — choke points, Malacca, etc.

[Gen. Shankar]: India is on these choke points. Earlier in land warfare they’d be raised for passes. These are the passes of the maritime. India has been on these passes from the time Indian Navy is existing. If it is hidden, don’t try to take it — expose it. We don’t want unnecessary escalation. If 60-70% of the trade goes into ASEAN, 40% comes to us also. Two-way traffic. International trades are complicated. Take them with logic and brain, not emotions.

Q: Who is playing in Nepal — US or China?

[Gen. Shankar]: Both. Both are playing in Nepal. Both are targeting us.

Q: With all that happened, Pakistan has not crumbled. Will Iran crumble?

[Gen. Dushant]: There is a difference. Pakistan is not being made to crumble. Iran is being made to crumble. Pakistan is being saved. Direct support from China, direct support from US via IMF, Saudi Arabia. Lot of people feeding liquid oxygen to Pakistan. Pakistan neither can die nor live — being made to float around because it is geographically important for all players — US, China, Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, Turkey. In Iran there is limited support, no direct support. That is why it’s not going to crumble — there will be a different Iran. Iran will not be in this current form under a Mostazafan, under a highly religious. Iran will be the start of death of radical Islam.

Q: How will Mullah Munir be taken care of? Will fellow generals take as ladder or Kissinger court to be a friend of US in fatal way?

[Gen. Dushant]: You’ve seen in the past people being eliminated. Bayad Bhau — various methods. When his utility is finished. He has concentrated so much power in his hand — anyone who concentrates power is a target. That’s why Musharraf ran away — he realized he was being targeted. It’ll soon happen.

[Gen. Shankar]: Look at previous dictators — Ayub, Zia, Yahya Khan, Musharraf — all completely supported by US establishment. All supported initially by people of Pakistan. When Musharraf became dictator, people said good riddance to Shabash Sharif. When Zia became dictator, people did all namaz. These people were liked till people said no. With this chap — when he came to power, people never welcomed him, nor did America endorse him. Only now America is endorsing him. He’s swimming against the current constantly. If Trump gets hold of Iran, he might drop this fellow. He’s in not a good position.

Q: Russia lowering heat with US recent reconsideration of dollar trade. Will Zelensky be thrown under the bus? Can he see exit strategy from Ukraine?

[Gen. Dushant]: There is some understanding between Putin and West as of now because of war being fought elsewhere. West not in a position to support Ukraine at this point. Strategic arrangements between parties. Putin is respecting that. That’s why Russians and Chinese are not directly supporting Iran — doing it in very subdued manner. Basically arrangements on both sides. Give and take.

Q: Why army doesn’t induct Wheeled APCs in large numbers?

[Gen. Shankar]: Wheeled vehicles, APCs are not our priority. We have priority of AI, communications, networking, firepower. This is only for the desert. We’re not in a hurry to fight a war with Pakistan. We know what the shape of Pakistan war is. We’re getting adequate APCs indigenously at the right time.

[Gen. Dushant]: The APC utility in our case is very limited. Weight is almost similar. We have necessary alternatives. We just don’t want to spend money unnecessarily. Our terrain has also improved. Desert terrain is not so difficult as it was earlier.

Q: Can West Asian conflict be best resolved by creating a new country Balochistan from Iran and Pakistan?

[Gen. Dushant]: Is it your wish or solution you are suggesting? Looks like your wish that Balochistan becomes a separate country. I will wholeheartedly welcome it. But whether it will solve the Iranian problem — I have serious doubts. Iranian problem will be solved through means we have just said — has to be crushed militarily — IRGC and the spiritual elements ruling.

[Gen. Shankar]: Problem with Balochistan is lack of population. Sparse population, huge area. Because of lack of population they don’t have political heft. No resources out there. True in Zahedan and Sistan-Baluchistan area, true in Pakistan Balochistan area. That is why they’re not able to get this kind of heft to affect a country, go across border, get together, form a revolution or freedom movement. It’s not happening. That’s the problem.

[Host]: Thank you. What a session. Hope you had as much fun, viewers, as I did. Namaskar.