How To Make Big Money With Cyclicals Stocks Niteen Dharmawat

TITLE: How to make BIG MONEY with cyclicals stocks? | Niteen Dharmawat CHANNEL: Exploring Minds DATE: 2026-01-03 ---TRANSCRIPT--- When cycle is at peak, your company is Making Lots of Profits and at the Peak of The Cycle You Don’t Make Money. Always at the Bottom You Make Money. If I am looking at any industry. [Music] How do I see this industry? Is it at its peak or at its bottom? Is? Oh, it’s very simple. When that industry What if the company is making a lot of profit? will be? There will be euphoria. You will see that this The entire discussion will be centered around that. In groups. And if you feel like it, I felt like these industry shares are mine. is not with me. And I’m missing out. I am Missing out. then definitely you are heading For problem. Such times must be avoided. Even if you don’t make money. My Investing The style is simple. I want to avoid losses. I want to make reasonable profits. Butt Eye I’m afraid of making such mistakes when I lose big money because of my entering into Cycle in the Wrong Time. You mentioned cash Flow cannot be manipulated. everything Else can be manipulated. How are you able to Get that financial engineering thing back. See Everybody Runs Behind PNL. That’s the Isshu na? PNL itself tells you the growth. Cash Flow will not reveal you the growth. Cash Flow Will tell you the truth. How do you understand this inflection? The point will change and when will the inflection point Will there be a change? What is the risk in any investment? Equity market? Bankruptcy is one of the Biggestness. The money will disappear. I Came in Market in 1992 and I Made Losses. I was almost out of the market. Then some people you know wed me that Do this. This is the right way. I had orange I hadn’t even heard the name Buffett. somebody Suggested me to read these books Needed So I ordered those books. that too Change my life. You are known as a king from Cyclic. I Want to Understand the Core Genesis, Why Markets Are Cyclical? Whenever there is a cycle there is a power. The Problem Is That Our Human Behavior Is Not in our control. What are some industries that you believe are? Out of flavour. which nobody is looking at and which you believe has some capacity to do A turnaround. When Industry Companies Are Going Through a Beer Face You Shouldn’t See That Is Red, Rather You should see that is green. whenever there is A Green, there is a problem. So, Wherever you see bull, see red. because Whenever there is an optimism getting Built In, You Will Not Be Able to Find Stocks with a comfortable margin of safety. And which other industry is at its peak right now? Is it on optimism, sir? that you are staying Away from. Bike the Pay Passivism Doesn’t Mean That You Are Negative. You Need to Be Extremely पॉजिटिव अबाउट द फ्यूचर। what does not kill यू मेक्स यू स्ट्रांग। 101%. So Joe Sustain Can’t. Hi everybody. I Am A Host Shivank & V Are part of the One Network by Zerodha Together We Intend to Bring You Insights From the top thinkers in the field of Entrepreneurship Technology and Investing. I saw a lot of your questions up. So When I search your name, what does it mean? Lots of transcripts If the question comes then that really tells To Understand What Kind of Questions You Ask and What Kind of It Tells a Lot of Stuff About Because the Questions You Ask Display What’s There So I I Went And So All the Questions That You Should Know Ask So generally I don’t get upset with Management I am very reasonable with Management only point of you know a You know I’m getting upset would be if Get Upset One where it has happened only was reporting Yes Not Done Yeah. सो दे हैव डेलिब्रेटली ऑर वाज़ अ बैड न्यूज़ ना। And and sense we are Doze Stubz. so we could find out that there Is something long that has happened in that Plan. There was a flooding okay. Peepal Varu Not agreeing but there was a flooding. V New About It. So we question them and it is not the right thing to do and then we Excepted and They Continue to Struggle Now there was another chemical company where We expose them about the way they have short Change the many shareholders so what they were doing is there was a main company And the main company was funding the subsidiary and The subsidiary had a shareholding of 57% with the Promoters and Rest with the Main Company OK and Entire Funding Was Happening Back Then Company by Company OK and Company Vas Constantly funding all the new Projects Facilities Everything or In That Company And then one day they did something okay which was absolutely legal okay there was some Financial Jiggery They Have Done and There Shareholding Went Up From 57% To More Then 74 without paying a signal new money What did Irani say about the financial district? They have done okay and then I question them in Cornall Because Cornall Was The Only Way I Came Think You Can or So On That Day I Was There in in a in a city area and I had to attend this con call so i went into a restaurant and there I I did that that Can you hear the background noise and That for I Ask Them First Question The first question was more normal than the second. The question was this, so they tried to skate. And then I came back, came back, and that’s it. was a very very difficult very complex structure they have put in so It was very difficult to understand also that they have done some financial you know Hankypanky Thing and They Are a Financial Engineering They Have Done in This Finally Since They were not able to convince and there were no They a to answer them through me out of that con They release the online conversation, yes they release it. Given there was no problem, so people will not I came to know that they have Removed me from the call now next Subsequent Question Nobody Asks and Then After that, there were some senior investors. The question again, but nothing happened. Management is Management Then After that, those people who had heard the tweet I tweeted that who is this I have taken it out, this has happened, give it, could make it out that I have been thrown out and both of them He tweeted, then the CBC kicked him up. Did NBC cover the story on that? Bahut matlab chakkar hua and then we got an Exit Call on the Same This Is Not Done. let it sleep Saved Almost 150-175 crore in this entire financial Bigger Investor The Company The Company Management ok yes they were saving that much ok 175 crore something like that with this personal Personal Book yes but you know how much they lost almost 15000 crore in the market This is a very interesting I was just reading this same book while you were here Venture Taking Shortcuts Being Not Long Term Or Praise And see then the serious money would never come to That and company never but they were very well Actually, they have you know demurrage that Company The Demerge Companies Name Got Cheap And That is how they discard getting you to know some Traction from the market but So there are two things that you are going to learn from this. There is one thing that is coming that I may be you please tell us when Do Risky Ah How Do You Find These Frauds? How are you able to get that? Financial Engineering Thing Done? End The second thing I think of you and I saw one of Your presentation where you mentioned cash flow Cannot be manipulated, everything else Can Be Manipulated and The Only Guy That My limited knowledge. Aditya Kemka Sir Always Tell that always start with cash flow. Cash flow. Start with cash flow. some of his Whatever profit you want, yes that is mine. Give it to me, I will show it to you, tell me whatever you want to say. Two 100% Can’t do anything about cash flow. You can do it but the scope becomes very limited. Right scope is greatly reduced and It is limited, I also told you how They do it in cash flow also. But that is difficult and it is not sustainable. It is lying there, will you sell it? You will sell it, right? Or you will show me that cheap money in cash. Because you can only do it once You can do it only once, do it twice You will give it, yes brother, how is it not sustainable? So, there is an issue of sustainability and here So what is it, you keep showing the sale on credit We So the opto circuit was a classic case of Opto circuit OK So Octo Circuit Was Doing Two Things One Was it doing constant profit and Acquisitions. Okay and then equalization. OK, there is a case. Study that I covered in 2011-12 that period व्हेन इट वाज़ एट द पीक। Yes. I said that People are going to fill it in. He became zero Was. And FII’s holding in it was 37%. And who are these people who are not able to see? What Jhula Wa Di Jo Company Was They See Everybody Runs Behind PNL That’s the Issue No because PNL comes every quarter yes And PNL itself tells you the growth. Cash Flow Will not reveal you the growth. Cash Flow Will Tell you the truth. Very interesting. End Sometimes What Happens? Not That Cash Flow If it is there then people think no friend next Will come in quarters. come next year Will go. That’s OK, Na is showing growth He is doing this now but if he shows growth V-Dept is showing V-Equity Showing valuation and no cash flow Its direct competition those does it happen often Of course, I mean, many times, many such Companies try to No, no, the irregularities in the companies These common things will definitely do it for you Equity dilution will be visible, promoter will be seen Prime promoter’s play will see a lower stake Leasing will also be visible, a lot of growth will be visible. Profit will look very good ROE ROCE You will show it very well, you are there, everything will be visible. No cash flow will be visible And the dept will look increasing Or And sometimes this happens when you see them from the front. So you think how high the PE is, but When You Actually See the Cash Flow Then You Get to Know That It’s a Ripley or Very interested so what are you studying now a Days Sir So I’m studying you know generally financial Services Banking All those chemicals Service sector which is going down Or that’s your style, that’s the style I came I saw what happened in your last quarter. It was Bank of India and two-three banks I saw your name in it, you are asking were from the question Sir, you have also posted a case study of yours. Isn’t it Bank of India? I have just covered Bank of India. But yah. So Bank of India was already in our Coverage. Ok. It’s already in coverage. then i covered This in one of the events. So I Cover It Very Rarely Companies & Events. But how I How We Have to Do This? What’s Desa? Very Simple Actually We Look For Valuation We have significant patience. So whatever we have recommended early and also it’s not that they have gone up from Day One. And So the Stocks Have Seen Significant correction. So One Stock V Recommended which was very early actually In 2018 which we exited. Ok. And We Exited negative. Yes. And We Book Loss After We Gave the Exit To our clients. Ok? So, clients head. Taken Ah Exit First Because That’s End Then we have a wait time. we could have done Exit immediately and then after one month we Could have given exit to them. and there Was another option that we gave them the first Right to exit. And we have to wait for Five days. We said that we will wait for five Days. So it was a big loss for us. If there is a SEBI regulation and SEBI Regulation. Got it. Got. For there very interesting. 15 days. So that time it was 15 days because We were using RI license. now we are Using your license that I continue you Will continue this and you this December or yes But such a good service or disc start from May I have no pee I PMS something. Ware There are lots of restrictions which come on Our trade and there are lots of regulations Also and nothing wrong actually in Regulation because a lot of these regulations might Be Required Also But What Happens There is collateral damage, so you see that we Are the collateral damage for that because we are Not able to manage so many complaints. can’t it take a lot of time energy what If You Outsource That Compliance If You Have The Ultimate CRO Somewhere Ultimately Responsibilities are on us and on our shoulders Have to get involved and You can’t do that as of today we follow Almost 92 compliances every year Hmm 92 Compliances There is too much, which means every three days I Any compliance needs to be filled every three or four days I mean follow that, friend. To fill yes or no, to follow have to follow 92 We Can’t Do This But whatever limited I heard from people They Just Love Your Services They Just Love You Guys | Yes because we are C we said the Expectation is very low. Hmm. You Know. We Will Say That You Come to Us. you will Make losses. We never make any calls. V Never recommended our service to anyone. You No. We Have Never Asked People to Subscribe Ourselves. Never. We Don’t Have a Cell Team Also. We kept it very, very simple. We’re Just Passionate About Equity Investment. And we thought that we shared the Ideas. because we were doing it earlier Before RA regulations chem in. And we were Doing it free. I used to conduct Equity Awareness Session in Pune for Almost 10 years I did that from 208 to 2018 No Charges Monthly Session We Used To Do one hour and that good boiled was Converting Yes, and the idea was that I learned from Society I am giving back to society the way you Are you conducting this session? Are you charging? Anything to your charge means you charge your Viewers know you are not charging why are You’re doing it because you want to give it to society you are you are learning in the second Effect First R Effect’s No Grand In Both things are gone. Both things are there. It will be great when you think for others What you are going to get is not that big. will be. You will not be able to image. So that Time My Thought Was Simple 2008 You Saw Books Right Or that I got in 2001 I came in market In 1992, And I Made Losses. I was almost Out of the market. Then some people you know Guided me that this is the right way to do it. I haven’t even heard of Aaron Buffett. Was. someone suggested me that these are books Must read. So I did not put those books but That Picture in My Life Somebody Recommended So That’s Wanded Do recommended there was some group were i You know we came part and then they recommended So that was great, then I said, friend, this So we must do something for ourselves. I have learnt today that by the time 2008 came, it had been six or seven years. I learned something in Maybe I will be able to Contribute something for the people we I started out with a lot of friends. It started today, six-seven people, 10 people, 15 people Keep joining that community of 100-150 people. Gai twain hu did it for 10 almost 10 Years and free no no charges nothing its Only Free One Said a Month One Hour Session Now Look at the outcome of this entire exercise One Was That I Got Personally Very Embarrassed In terms of my understanding about Market My Understanding About the Common Questions That People You Know Have Generally Ask Yes, generally, how do we handle it? What behavior issues arise? And the second aspect that was found was that friend, when we If you do all this then you will meet good people. Let’s go into this. So somebody recommended my Partner Jitendra and 2015’s Yaar Unko If Silical is very good then call him. You. So I Called Him Once and I Spoke Him And said boss told me about you. And he was in Pune. So I was not knowing About it. Despite being you, I know both of us. I called I spoke to him and he was Nice, he was kind enough, he agreed and then he Came and He Presented His First Presentation on Sickle in our forum Ok In Pune what’s the forum it was ah value investing ah equity ah forum okay yes So the idea was that just value Investing Nothing Else Okay and Ah There Is there no other objective of this Sharing the Knowledge and Learning from People and sharing the knowledge and learning from the People the Community and Build That Community of investors. So he came he presented And then I liked it that this is a big one. That’s a good way. means in a different way or We are looking at it from a different perspective. I am doing Some Part of It. But in a different and a The Very Systematic Way You’re Looking At Cyclicles. and then it helped me in Developing My Own Thought Process. Of Course It could held others also those who are part of It. and then subsequently he presented Refined that presentation multiple forums. And became very popular. Ah very Popular That Presentation Is Very Popular. So, ah that helped me and understanding in Steel Industry for For That Matter. For Example. So, Still I Wasn’t Investing Earlier. and since this forum Was form one of the friends, was knowing About the steel industry and how it was going Through a passivism. Skill Industry Steel Steel Industry Okay 17-1 18 was a period when 17 was the Period Where Steel Was Going All Through Bad Period All the Companies Were Getting Bankrupt Okay and that’s where I thought that Let’s invest, let’s look at this industry And before that I had not, I was not Knowing what is long what is flat Flat steel Long steel What I have you No Implications What Are the Things I Should Look What Are the Moving Parts to It How Do I measure whether it is doing good or bad? Worst Now How Do I Find It Out. So slowly and gradually I got some handle And then I said three or four factors too It is critical. That’s what you have to keep in mind. anything else Don’t want to do. And how did they come? That’s these friends Who made friends in the circle Were made. They explained to me that yes It is like that. Isn’t it? And then with some research I Thought that dude is a great company. Godavari Power That Time We Look Back It. End It was at a market cap of around 20050 Ten million. Today it is 15,000 crores. And We Looked at it and I said this is a very good Company. So I spoke to my partner. Off The course itself became my partner network. End Then I told him to look at this company. Needed He said, no friend, this company is mine. My hand has been burnt once. His previous The exchange was bad. So I said no Must see. So the gift was ₹55 at that time. Time. Of course, he just splits the bonus and everything. It’s done in this. I am talking about प्रीस्प्ले प्रीबर्स। ₹55 ₹250 crore 200 Market capital of crores. So We Boat Some Small Company and I Started Tracking Friend, take care of yourself on these parameters. Is. And you know as it happens, you know when something Is going through a lot of pessimism somewhere Some good news comes from here. things Change happens. If there is no permanent damage That industry is going to be affected. means 1991 If you look at the typewriter industry, right? So that became a permanent damage. Permanent destruction will not work at all. It won’t work, we can come now. Neither if you go into that industry There is a problem right, if you are not in that industry There is no risk of permanent damage The Steel Is of Course Not Going to Be If there is no permanent damage, then If that industry turns around than you make lot of money specially in Companies where there is a financial leverage So if both financial and operating Leverage increased as remaining capacities Has gone Please explain both to me once Financial and operating leverage once you explain both So look what’s happening, a lot of it Companies Bank was going into sepsis. Isn’t it? Abhibhushan Steel etc., all these were in abundance at that time. But you will see those from 2012 to 2017-18. There is a period, there is a lot of steel in it. Companies that moved out of the university. There was a lot of stress. This company is Pat She used to make it. Currently the rate of pet is around ₹3400 But ton etc. was the rate at that time. that was the Beck even rate for this companies. Not much further down than this. If it goes below this, they will incur an operating loss. They went. when they were almost on the verge of The. If it goes down even by ₹100 then it gets affected. You probably I spoke to the promoter. The promoter said That it is going to be closed. why you Are you interested? Even after this it did not happen and after that it happened. it After that, many more things happened at that time. So This one happened, then we took that state and Since I was you no researching about it. I Thought that if the industry is getting agar and apne If I find someone I know, I can understand it better. Then I was searching that time who are you If possible, then one of my relatives was Was CFO in a company listed on Of course it was a big company and that too later. The bank was a promoter issue, all that was there. When she used to make pate, I spoke to him only Sad friend, we have money to eat poison. No, you’re putting money into it. Yes, why are you putting this in the industry? I said look what’s in this. I know there are issues but this turn There are chances of around but that was not enough. Agree because he was inside that. he was too much inside into that industry and he was Facing Everyday Trouble Into It. And I Was And investors, we have that luxury. Standing Outside. sometimes we can be Overconfident also and sometimes. V Can be reasonably you know right also because We have taken the position which is controversial To what market varies in January. So V We were standing outside and we could see that If there is even a little change, a lot of money can be made. Will go into it. Because the capacity is gone There is a lot of situation right now. And that’s what happened in China. I had some pollution issue so he Closed a lot of capacity. Then he He started taking higher grade iron ore. Did. So the requirement of pet increases in it. His is gone. So the export of pet started Happened. So the rate of the pet was 3400 Reach to 20,000 in with in you know couple of Months years. First it doubled, then it tripled. Happened. So You Made a Lot of Money That Company which was almost on the world of Bankruptcies Turn Into One of the Best Investments. And when the promoter told you, friend Why are you doing a story about my company? we are are about to close. Otherwise, we will talk to the promoter much later. Had met. generally also Did this happen? Yes, this was the story. No, we told them that this is us at this time We took it for the first time. Dombali if you If we had remained at these rates for a quarter, One quarter would have been enough. We Used to go to bankruptcy. NCLT cases Used to go. Already so many companies in NCLT She had left at that time. Lots of Pete The companies had gone away. तो आप पैसा बनाते हो It is very difficult to sustain it. You get emotionally drained out. Your stock prices fall. all of that It does happen. So this is just an example. स्टील से रिलेटेड ही थी। But that automatic सेक्टर को कर रही थी। In 2018, I think we Nothing and they just have to do their job Now there is nothing to do when the shares of that company When we took it, we made arrangements, so I came I thought I did it at 55-60 and then I started. Coming down and we realised that this is the problem Is. So a there was an option that time in Our service where we can you know suggest our Aa subscribers and new subscribers not To buy this for the time pay period. it’s a Good company ah but we will not add more at this Price. Two it is by we will not add more. When It Came Down to 23 Was the Price It Came Possible. we got a lot Of platform duest of course and we were Very early that time wasted so we had to Handle those queries and we know that this The company is not going to go bankrupt for sure. Equity Market Bankruptcy Is One of the Biggest The money will disappear and the second is the Valuations. No, if you have given very High valuation of a company for Example, Infosys in the year 2,000, it’s a Great company. It has been done very well over a Period of time. But since the valuations If you are not on your side, you will not make money. Is an equity investor. So, the company has Not Gone Away, But Investors Have Not Made It Mad Money for Several Years, Because CO Entered in the round price. So, so you too Be very careful about the valuation. So Valuation was also in our favor. it was Not Very Expensive But Since the Entire The Cycle Was Bad for the Company It Started Doing Verse. And Then Things Turn Around Things You Know Have Changed. So at around 23-24 He attended HEO and we realized that there Is Not a Bad Company. There is no risk as The Truth About Losing Money Which Was Our Thesis End Which again got reinforced. and we believe that there is a chance fair chances that now Cycle Wood Turn Around and From There 23 To Now It Is Around 2230 So That Turnaround Has Happened Since 2018 to 2025 and it has seen Covid, you know it Has seen all that you know term oil in UK Europe everything and promote is great and They started doing well Very interesting you are known as a king on Cyclicals I Want to Understand That Code Genesis Why Something Why Markets Are cyclical what are certain things Which Make the Market and the Industry cyclical and let’s take an example of Any Industry That You Wish to Like Lets See Tech for Example PSU Why Are PSU Cyclical What is the Fundamental Core Reason for Them to Be So First of All Late I clarify that I am not the thing okay I I’m just a student on the market and I Continuously Reign What I Believe Is That Everything is everything has a cycle. Ok? Nature is a cycle. You C We Have Three Different periods during a year when it races Where It’s Cold, Winter and Summer. Ok? It is a cycle. every year it will Less. Ok? Sometimes it gets extended, even Time there is overlap but it will come. Ok? So there is a cycle in nature. Sleep Cycle Is very very- you no natural thing, natural Phenomena. So it’s there in business also Cycle Length Can Be Different for Different Industries OK Impact Can Be Different So Whenever there is a bicycle there is Opportunity OK the problem is that our humans Behavior is not in our control, so when Cycle is at peak you see company is making Lot of profits ok euphoric euphoric and Different Industries Behave Differently During those cycles, each industry Each company may have a different cycle also So for example steel and commodity sales Steel Cycle If It Is At Peak You Will See The company is making lots of profits so much So That You Will See There Pee Is Coming To Five may be three may be two, okay, and you will Start Believing That OK, This Is a Great Company because PE is no that is half as Be Taut All The Way Normal And Necessary कि भाई यह तो बहुत छोटा पीई है। to us This is what should be taken. But that is a peak of the Bicycle me B. Ok? And at the peak of the साइकल यू डोंट मेक मनी। Always at the tough end The Bottom You Make Money. Ok? Where is the bottom We don’t know. सो व्हेन इट टर्न्स टू अदर फॉर दैट साइकिल टू हैपन। If It Is Not आपको अपॉर्चुनिटी मिल जाएगा। at that time all the time it occurs. If I am looking at any industry. I Is it there or is it at the bottom? Oh, it’s very simple. If that company is very In? There will be euphoria. सारे सब्जेक्ट करेंगे भाई Sir. उसकी ना उसके आपको आर्टिकल्स Will meet. If you go to Train Media. बारे में न्यूज़ मिलेगी। If you are social Must be talking. If you have WhatsApp Building is going on on the side. Isn’t it? And if you It seemed as if these people of the industry I do not own the shares. And I Am Missing out. I’m missing out then Definitely you are heading for problems. Heading for Problems. So from that time on Must be avoided. Even if you don’t make money Because there are increased chances of losses. Will go. My Principal and My Investing Ok? I Want to Make Profit Reasonable Profit. But I am afraid of Making Such Mistakes Where I Lose Big Money Because of a my entry into cycle at the Wrong time. Hm wrong ah part of the cycle where it Is going towards speak. I Don’t Know Weather It is peak or not. Isn’t it? It Can Still Go Up. So let’s take the IT industry Example year 200. Ok? during that period I think I was in Ahmedabad and a I was a bachelor staying with friends. Money So it wasn’t much. Yes. Was working in the company. So one of the rooms is Infosys. Ok? And he said I botched it, it was when I had Previous Experience of Going Towards See peak and losing money period 92 93 A lot of money had been lost, so I knew that friend, I should not do this work in life. I had learnt one thing that this work never Don’t do that when something is going up Neither should one stay away because it is very It is fire, you can make money a lot but if you don’t get out and Wrong, absolutely right, if you go to the wrong type You can lose a lot of money and generally your Greed increases as one goes up The same thing happens with this friend also. So He took some small position and that’s what I said Dude, this looks very expensive. Then he is It doubled in 15 days. So he said, look I had taken it, it has become double. he only Both more and he was also not having money. He has a father and a brother. took money from him It happened. Then again after a month and a half it doubles again. Went. Then he added another 10,000 rupees. That rate has come close. He did a lot of Put it there. It reached 15,000. He put it all in there. everything that was Put everything in. He became his pick at 18,000. And those guys took more than 10 years to come. Were. Right? When You Lost a Lot of Time, You Lost Patience, you will lose confidence, you know When true things happen. So avoid those Things are very, very critical. To Sustain in the Market for the Long Term Perspective. You can still make money. If You Are Smart Enough to Enter and Exit And then you have no complete discipline and Control. Generally it doesn’t happen. when you are Entering it in such a furious you know Momentum in these industries and companies. So You need to be very, very careful while Entering this. I understand what you are saying. I was reading you know I was Talking to someone and I was talking to sir. And he said that friend, let’s take a case study Rakesh Sir’s Titan. and he said this line ki vadare vadare level today if someone What company, so someone told me that friend You should see which company is giving its 52 weeks breaking high Because if there is any company, it If you want to move forward, then without 52 High Week will not break And as soon as you do something, it starts walking and if you If you have conviction, you double down on it. Yes, you do double beak. So go ahead and take it, Then if it increases further, take more. So that’s a concept Is. But here you are saying that anything Am. If you already have it, yes. so you नीड टू प्रिपेयर टू टेक एन एग्जिट। Maybe ग्रेजुअल एग्जिट फ्रॉम दैट। Ok? that is Forest. ऑफ़ कोर्स यू नीड टू इवैल्यूएट कि ग्रोथ के पैरामीटर्स क्या है? what growth Is it coming? What packs are we offering? No दे रहे हैं वो क्या दे रहे हैं? If it is कैन मेक लॉट ऑफ़ मनी इन दैट। And if you यू लूज़ लॉट ऑफ़ मनी इन दैट प्रोसेस। For Stories were there. सो यू कैन स्टिल यू नो मेक लॉट ऑफ़ मनी ड्यूरिंग दिस पीरियड। But तक बैठने वाले हो उसके अंदर। So now your Industries That You Believe Are Out of Flivver which nobody is looking at and which you Believe has some capacity to do a turn Around. But talk to people who feel ashamed even while doing So even if you tell me this right now, friend In the interview that friend, this is in the industry I should invest and I should invest four times. I have to think about what people will say. Dude, he is investing in this industry. Are. Which industry is it? who no one wants to talk to right now about. Isn’t it? I told you every time, every period You will find some industry or the other. As such It will never happen that the entire industry is very She is doing well. What’s wrong with doing right now in 2025? Who He is doing the worst. Hey, Infra is doing very badly. You look They have not been doing any infra work for the last few years. From. Absolutely not to do it. A little cement A good thing has started. Financials The service has been very bad in between. They I think a turner out might be coming soon. It has started. PSU banks are very good So you were not doing it. Just started back From. That is also a sector. chemicals a lot of the time It is worse than it is now. It’s been almost two or three years It has been three or four years that they are spoiling it. Are. They are also doing poorly operationally. You can spoil the market and do a lot more There is negativity regarding all these sectors. So These sectors will be termed sometime or the other. You would think that these sectors Will remain. Is there any permanent disruption to them? Is. When the disruption is not permanent then off Course you make money. So now if we talk about PSUs Are. So the name of the stock I am saying You remove that. But just to understand the process when I was searching This Is Publicly available information. Whenever your name If you search, Bank of India will probably be there. Your name comes up. and you have given this Presentation also. can you help me Understand what SN Industries is all about Was it bad? What did you see after that? That friend, this is not permanent destruction. How did you figure it out about Bank of India And what turnaround do you see in that? So Bank of India Public Sector Bank in Is a classic case of cycle gating Repeated what has happened in the year 200L Almost similar. The names might have changed. Banks has had a bit of a buzzer. Its number Of banks have been reduced. Butt Cycle Exactly the same. Of no difference. so there Is one presentation which I did and which I did in Pune in our monthly sessions it was About Election Year Performance. In That Eye Am doing since 2013 every 2013 14 was the Election Year 14 or was a first Mr. Modi got id and That 2019 then 24 And I Was Analyzing Elections Since 1991. OK, so I’ve created that History in this presentation. It’s Available in public forum also. So, I Because I have gone through this entire period 91 ICI started voting during That period. 90 There was a period when I voted for the First time. So 91 than 93 from 93 to 95, 96, 97, 98 and from 99 And then 2004 200 or all those periods okay so One Year Before That So My Presentation Thesis Was That a Year Ago In the period of one year since one year ago Markets never give negative returns He never gives negative returns in a year The reason for this is that the government does nothing. I don’t want to do anything wrong The industry never will not tease Will you maintain your status or will you get more help? will help So this will never lead to negative Now if you see, this is from 96 to 98 I had my period and it was very challenging for me. balance of payments crisis Balance of Payments Crisis and 91 What was the problem in 1996-98? Okay, so Gujral was Mr. Gujral was Mr. There was Devgoda, then there was Vajpayee, all of them came and went. Were there? पहले 38 डेज का गवर्नमेंट फिर का गवर्नमेंट नहीं आ गया। so because of that Forest. सेकंड इंडस्ट्री वाज़ आल्सो गोइंग थ्रू Lot of pain. Ok? बिकॉज़ ऑफ़ दिस टू थिंग्स Have gone through a financial crisis. NPS had increased a lot. So if you were in 2001 Come and see when they are at their peak. Because these NPAs remained hidden. First Was. फिर गवर्नमेंट ने सबको डंडा चलाया तो All those norms were set and then all the NPAs Come out. In banks. That was such a huge NPS. all of that Clean up done. So in 2001, all that Clean up is done. Everything became clear. You look The government funded it all again. There is still money to distribute And growth is coming in all the parameters. in place Same Thing Has Happened Same Thing So Ah 167 There was a period when all the NPS got Trees 17 18 Was a period all list came Yes, it was absolutely clear that this NPA I did it by making everyone sit. Bank Nubs Changes happened. If unfortunately Covid comes, give it We lost the year. 2020 21 and 22 one Period, if you remove it then our The period already starts. It would have started from 2020. But due to Covid we got delayed. You are late. But now this thing is picking up again. Pickup is taking place. Credit growth also increased Has been. Credit growth is also increasing. NPS It is absolutely low. are falling and Recovery is also being done from where NPAs were made. Is. Isn’t it? And all the norms are reset back. Went and got stingrayed rather. Right? and right now This being Banks’ version, it is also powerful. Have become. And Since They Have Not Invested Fortunately Unfortunately in Technology They are invested in the latest technology Now. So they are much ahead than the private Banks. Hmm in technology and they lurked All the Lessons What Private Banks Were Doing. So now they have they are developing this aggressively with the deployment of Technology. So if you look at the number of people Added in public sector banks in last Five Years You Will Get Surprised That This The number is negative because that is one of the parameters people say that you know there pe to They recruit anyone as much as There is no pressure, only numbers are recruited. There is no need because everything Technology is becoming a big thing with tech. If there is deployment then there is a big saving there. You have it, right? And it’s doing very well operationally. Have been. So They Are As Good As Now Private Bands They Are Behaving At Least As Good Good Edge Private Banks So Valuation Wise Of course they have a lot of comfort, right? You told us that the cyclical nature of How did you get PSU banks recognized? Now since you gave the example of BOI And again not a recommendation it is available Anyway, but I want to understand the mindset how did you figure it out that dude is BOI is the one to play the cycle Best Play All The Best Humne To Humne To Aur Also recommended one thing. This is from the sector We have recommended multiple stocks Are. One thing got covered in public forum. That’s why we’re talking about it as a Case study. But This Is Not the Only Stock That we covered from public sector banks. There were multiple. There was another public Sector Bank That We Picked Up and It Went Beyond our parameters within a few months. So we exited. It Came Down Again We Again Recommended. So That Is The Only Stock We Recommended three types. in our entirety History on the Last Seven Years. So in Both these three four who are involved in banking What was the common threat in stocks? When you saw this similarity, then these in three or four companies Valuations are comfortable. OK how did the valuation comfort come about? So what Are there any benefits of this? So you see the price to book value How much is it? Your book is quite good. Has been. Clean up is done. Yes, meaning otherwise the book itself is wrong. So one of The question was, are these books? It is problematic. The book has just been cleaned Is. Isn’t it? Government funding returned Is. ROS are improving. No recoveries are being made. Which became your NPA था वहां से रिकवरीज हो रही है। right now for Example: They are saying in Bank of India Every year recovery is ₹1500 crore From us. They are writing it back. So you get this money It is going to come back and you can share it now. Be a holder. Those who lost have gone Went out. You are taking advantage of it right now. So these recoveries are happening and in general The economy is improving. And they are Aggressive now they are aggressive. They want to Have shared intestine. Cement Industry I understand. A little bit of cement intesti You explain cyclicity to everyone. See And I’ve also seen this in cement, perhaps The growth in the last 10 years is only 1% There has been an increase in the price. Absolutely absolutely absolutely. So cement Will be seen. सीमेंट का कैपेसिटी देखोगे तो It is quite big. हमारा ओवरऑल कंस्ट्रक्शन जो इंडिया में देखोगे तो वो काफी बड़ा है। Is No? And वो हो रही है कंसोलिडेशन। Ok? Awesome Consolidation has happened in the industry in the last In a few years. काफी सारी जो छोटी-छोटी There were companies, there were capacities, they got merged. Is. या कोई एनसीएलटी में था तो वो भी चली Has been. So, firstly, the capacities have gone out. Or due to merger there is huge capacity. So दे मेक लॉट ऑफ़ मनी इन सच केसेस। We ऑपरेशनल एफिशिएंसीज़ आई हैं। So where लेकिन प्रॉफ़िट्स तो फिर भी हो सकता है। So of money na cement companies start making Lots of money. And that was visible in Southern Status Now. So in the Southern States, you You will see it two quarters or three quarters ago. Ah, the price had started to rise. If you track it, and it started This was the first time it was sustained, it had happened before also. But it was not sustained, so 3 months If it remains sustainable then it will remain sustainable for 6 months. When the monsoon season is over, I was attending Few calls of cement say they are saying that 3 There was a correction of 4% which is very seasonal This happens every time, isn’t it, but the demand is still there. There is also intake and we feel that the demand It will increase a lot because growth is coming in that If this happens in the area then this company will Going to make a lot of money a little bit Delta increases for example mobile We also got a recommendation from a mobile company. had done mobile cellular service providers Okay, right, when those prices were changing Cellular service writer so who It’s clear, it’s clear, so now it isn’t. In Our Coverage So I Can I Can Tell the Name Also it was Airtel hai na so B Airtel v Recommended It Very Early So What was the thesis thesis was simply that he The price is increasing. Isn’t it? You think if The allegations are increasing. The price is increasing. The monthly charges Yes, it is growing. Very simple Your mobile bill in the language That of prepaid is increasing. So it was ₹100, 100 became 150. 150 200 It happened, 250 became 300 now till 300, 250 came to 300 Used to be. So we were seeing that growing. Isn’t it? And this is being sustained because Today it has become a necessity for people. Even if it reaches 200 and is sustained If the delta has increased by ₹100 per month then It cost ₹1200 per year. your if your if 50 There are crores of customers in the entire industry. Look at how big the industry is. Delta change will be 1200 * 50 crores It’s It’s Incredible It’s Huge Number Hughes’ number two-thirds in the year he became the company’s The entire date will be clear. We so you have financial leverage Operating leverage is coming your way Running right just gives you that recognition Doing and then you make a lot of money and The players are there and consolidation has already taken place. All the players were cleared. Two or three players now Only those who are left. How long is that now Whether we fight or not is a different matter. Everybody Will Have to Know You Answers For their own return on equity return on investments to their investors we And that is happening in cement companies Also. So I’ve gone back to cellular too Explain the concept of Cement company. Cement companies. So wherever there is a little bit The price delta will come. You Make Lots of Money In those days you know your capacity is 10 million If you get rice for ₹50, you will get it. Look at the size of the bag, Delta is And this is the delta of price. And not just that, sorry, yes. Sir, he does not come, he comes with capacity. So where you run at 30% or 40% capacity Were there and the demand has increased, hasn’t it? The demand has increased. The players have decreased and your If capacity utilization starts increasing then what Capacity was 30 40 50% 70 80 90% Capacity gone, capacity increased, price increased You read it and increased your efficiency. You see how much money, margin and everything. You don’t have to spend a lot of extra money will have to do it for And then that price will suddenly correct. What are its lagging and leading indicators? And how will we know what the price will be? Will it grow from cheese? If a bag of cement is expensive It has to happen. Just now it shows that the last 10 It hasn’t happened in a year. Now what is such a thing? Will this cause the price of cement to increase? We will have to see what happens. Tell yourself how much new additional capacities you will get. Has been. ओके और वह इंडस्ट्री में पैसा कहीं से उधार लिया होगा ना। He Yes everywhere he has to show those profits. Already. हो जाएगा फिर प्राइस। And plus the demand यार लोकल डिमांड कैसे बढ़ रही है। Some? बड़े प्रोजेक्ट्स आ रहे हैं। So in the house वापस स्टार्ट हो गया। The government change Will make. सो दैट यू नो बिकम्स अ ट्रिगर Some reason or the other will come up. always something Regions come into play. So China said that No friend, we still need a lot of pollution. Used to be. So we want to stop this. So they stopped some steel production. Steel Production stopped and they said that this Sudden demand for your steel by our name It increased. Steel was the same. We also do production Were living. We were using the same material. suddenly The price increased. And from 3400 to 5000 6000 are gone. You Start Making You Know Profits. Make your operations sustainable Will go. If their operations become sustainable then off Of course, that return on equity will come, so you You will make money in this Sugar Industries came to understand a little about cement. Think Sugar You Also You Know Track How to see cyclicality and what changes are happening is in the market right now Look at the sugar a little bit A second sugar before adding a little cement Let us now consider how many in India Cement companies will be roughly Sir Another type of cement is different in all areas. What’s the problem? Cement is a very regional Business is We are not a pan India business for example. Mumbai mobile so if you are sitting in the poo So you can give it in Jammu also. anywhere You can provide service. You need to install a local tower Is. Tower installation companies It provides. Isn’t it? So you have There is a license. You can offer anywhere yes. This is not the case with cement. of cement If there is distance, then a major in logistics There is an issue. So if you have a cement If the plant is set up in Pune or Mumbai or just put it in some area You supply his money. 300 400 300 km You are at a distance of You can send the goods. don’t send him out Can. You can’t make it from China. That is not sustainable at all. So logistics is a major major major road road block to It will remain where it is. what there You have to keep in mind the capacity. Okay, so how many plants are there in India today? It doesn’t make any difference. in your area How many plants are there? what is the demand for it Is it being generated? that can also make a lot Of difference. So during this period North Companies on the East Side and the West Side very well done. In the House In the Companies The problem was with the cement. Rates in the House Did not grow. So when you’re looking at rates Mostly everything is coming out average. But The North and West Company reasonably Good money has been made for investors. We made some recommendations there. He gave us very good returns. There was a problem in the South. Rates are the same in the South They were not growing. Many small towns in the South All capacities were there. She was sustaining And there are many reasons for that. of the South For that you will have to understand the market. Now! That change has happened. वहां पे भी काफ़ी सारा Consolidation has happened. Capacities are gone. Has gone to the West. Some from Southern Market लिस्ट अह लिंक थी वह गई है। So the companies that If she is taking it then she should look at sustainability. You will have to take care of your operations. So right now the cement companies you are seeing Meli Yes Again I am taking names because I I tried to understand it a little bit. There is no recommendation. Have you studied Ramco Cements? I know rap. Yes, how do you You See How Do You Look at the Company? Do You find it good? Better? It’s a great company. It’s a great company. So but ours There are parameters, how can we get into cement companies? Let’s go? हम जाते हैं रिप्लेसमेंट कॉस्ट Value Pay. Ok. Ok? तो मोटा-म मोटी आप देखोगे तो Sits. What is replacement cost? means if तो दो पैरामीटर बहुत क्रिटिकल है। one then मटेरियल लगेगा उसकी माइंस कितनी है? How many? To you. ये दो पे ही मोटा-म मोटी इनकी वैल्यूएशन बनते हैं। So if you It is available. उसका एंटरप्राइज वैल्यू जो है The cost sits. If it is below that then it is very good. over him There is an operation. What efficiency is there? So if 60, 100 मिलियन की कैपेसिटी है। obviously one another You will find it below. लेकिन कितना नीचे है क्या वो Is it $50? Is that $40 pay? is that Is it $30? बहुत सारी कंपनी जो छोटी थी जो This change happened and their capacities also increased. If that happens then you will see when this If a delta is formed, it will become a very big delta, sir. Interesting is your cement company. in that you are looking at the two Three Thais That’s interesting, what else are you looking at? Your company is how they are different. Is it better than other cement company Of course, whenever they are expanding If yes then how efficient is the management What does it take to implement that expansion? There is a lot of delay in its balance sheet. Scrap how is the promoter’s track record What is and how do they deal with minorities? There are no shareholders, nor how much they have Disclosures are all those paraphernalia very Critical Got it sir about the sugar industry too Sir, examples of multiple industries so that We Can Understand the Cyclicality and Latency Understand a Little Bit About Sugar Do You Think it’s out of flavor right now Course it is why it is out of flavor so There Are a Couple of Reasons One Is a Sugar Prices Haven’t Gone Up OK Sugar Prices have not gone up from the The government side should provide the support price MS The government has not increased the sugar rate. For whatever political reason, not that and who There was ethanol which the government purchased. She was still getting it from multiple sources. If it is procuring then there is some Stress comes due to these two reasons, it builds up Valuations of Hua and Sugar Companies decreased Where can change happen now? One change is this. It may have been The market prices of sugar I came a little faster, despite not having If you look at the government support, in the last 10 Sugar prices did not increase much during the year. Are. It is not someone weighing 40, 50 or 60 kilos, it is you. That means the good quality sugar that you buy in retail They must be taking white branded sugar. Isn’t it true if you are not buying branded ones? You can get it even for ₹30-₹35. No The little change that happened was in the first 30 years. It was around ₹35, ₹37, one for ₹7 That ₹1 must be making a difference to their profit. It makes a lot of difference to us If their prices do not change There is pressure in ethanol, so the companies There are profits, they will be less. Isn’t it? Very Not all companies have operational efficiency If so, what will they be? Will be closed. Sustain Will not do. That’s where the stress is There will be a build, after that a great opportunity It will be made in that. Or maybe the companies are doing something new. So One is our company in our coverage. The promoter is very nice and did a good job. He has done it. It also worked well in ethanol. The balance sheet is good. Yes. So he can expand into something else. Have been. which is again very interesting Considering the size of the [ __ ]. So expand Don’t tell the company. Butt on top of what? Let him go now. Ok. Okay, right? Ok. So they don’t talk about it. Discuss. Otherwise it will become a case study. Here. Ok. Isn’t it? So that’s what we were made for. Over there. Interesting. What else are you looking at, sir? Industry which is currently out of flavor. But you Believe there can be an opportunity. Infrastructure. In infrastructure infrastructure What else besides cement? Let’s see You No, no, the infrastructure companies There are road companies that build roads. There are no projects He doesn’t have any projects right now Not at all And the projects that were coming from NHI He is not there, he has reduced because of It has reduced. गवर्नमेंट का फोकस कहीं और गया Is. So that’s also a cycle, that’s done. Now! But You Believe This Is Not Permanent Destruction. Of course not, this is permanent destruction. How can this happen? मतलब रोड तो बनी थी ना What people generally drink in the road साल में नेटवर्क हाईवे डुगना करेंगे। Then There are companies, they are not getting projects. What is happening like this? So you will see that थे कंपनीज़ को उसमें थोड़ी कमी आई है। in that Now this is stress. अब हाउ डू साइक्लिसिटी Understand. अब हाउ डू यू अंडरस्टैंड कि ये इनफ्लेक्शन पॉइंट चेंज होगा? how do you Understand that? तो देखिए यह जब होगा जब These are already these companies which are ours Three Year Four Year Five Year Log Lo Pe Hai Companies are very valuation wise You will become comfortable. what is the second thing It is possible that if it is completely focused from the road were on the road then migrated from the road Associated started doing some other work for For example, they started building railway bridges because I have a job in the railways, I am just giving some Example and may start canal work If a canal is to be built there, then its Government projects are coming if It is there because it is from infrastructure. Related: If he can do that, he can do all such work. They could have built road bridges. Also start building railway bridges. When such projects come to this place If you start seeing yourself in the company then you It should be understood that this company is doing some pivoting. Has been. This is bringing some changes to the business. Things to be taken care of and Bringing in margin payments. How will you know from which margin? Oh, look at that, you won’t know it immediately. They When you start seeing quarterly results If you do it then you will understand that these margins Is the profile being changed again? We So if those margins were shrinking back Are you coming? The most important thing is that Are the projects coming or not? Because the projects are not coming yet. are. Isn’t it? If we look at many companies If you look at the order book, Depletion is the order books are shrinking and order books are dwindling and when their Who will listen to the results when they are seen? You will understand what the management is saying. that they can see the stress there Price competitiveness is visible. When Projects will appear larger and companies will Will you start getting easy projects or Companies are taking a pivot. some other Starting to serve the industry. Similar is related to the road where it goes He can start to happen then you Start Looking At These are some of the industries you mentioned which are turning Are going around. I have something like this Name the industries in which you can ever You don’t invest and you think it’s You will never make any money. There are also such industries But I’ve invested in them too. Actually. Ok. Ok. And when she went from peak pessimism An industry for example hotels, tours, Tourism is where I never invest. Does. So you have seen the market cap of IFFCA and Its market in Covid The market came which was 20,000 rupees for work yes correct correct 20000 and 27000 Right And then he got 1 lakh and 400 rupees. 2 lakh now Now on 2 lakhs So that hotel is an industry in which I never put money in because your There is no control over input and output. You don’t know how many people will come and how many keys You don’t even know what to make nothing nothing know Nothing, nothing is in your control It is not there and at what price should I go? You don’t even know that there is a demand If there is a lot then there is a lot of money but when That period of 202 when Covid came second wave That was a period when he was a victim of peak pessimism. The industry was gone, all the hotels were closed. Those related to Covid were also ongoing, whoever People were coming from outside, it was to keep them So almost everything was dead, there was no movement. There was no and this was during the period when anyone The industry goes and if that permanent I am not going by description because This is temporary, someday Covid will come. It will end, so what doesn’t kill you Makes You Stronger 1101% So Joe Sustain He will make so much money that you can’t even imagine. can’t And is there a way to predict that this Child, this man will sustain this company. will sustain Yes, its financials are very simple. Strong means your balance sheet Strong is the parent, strong is he sustain I will do it, right? But there is one more thing in it. Wherever this week is, it is financial week. No, and the parent is not big in banking. But if he sustains this stress Period, a little luck, luck was with them with them and they sustained like for Example: Steel Company That Sustained He made a lot of money in the downturn of 2017. These are the companies whose balance sheets are strong No, but if she sustains it and ज्यादा पैसा बना के देगी आपको। One operating language and a financial Ok? So the enterprise value is Rs 3500 crore. Whenever we are buying a company हम उसके मार्केट कैप पे नहीं खरीद रहे। We Ok? No, we have not bought only equity. The Owner of the Business As an owner of the business I have also Responsible for the Department Not Only Equity Not only equity, brother, equity It is a small part, so the department has to serve. You will have to do it and if you don’t do the deputy service then the most He will fly first, his right comes first and then yours. If you stand up then the day ones from liquidation First of all you will get your debit money back. We will go by liquidation because If this period remains the same then it will continue further. You will stand behind him. you something Not going to get it. So if the debt is Rs 3200 crore and Rs 300 It has a market cap of Rs 3500 crore. There is enterprise value. You reverse a little bit We do. The equity that was down turned It is over, isn’t it? Luckily, it is over. reverse What will happen if it happens? You are making a profit Real right. Creating cash flow. Price Yours has increased. Your demand has come which is 30-40% But you were running increased in capacity. And In May B Hotels it was 0% pay. 5% 10% pay It was 80, 90, 100% utilization. So what are those people doing with that money? If it becomes possible, what will you do first? Dept. will serve If we do day service then yes that is of the department. Enterprise value is considered to be only Rs 3500 crore I am fine, right now I am not rerating my PE. We are just assuming that this PE was the same PE will remain A This is what enterprise value is. Enterprise value will remain the rerating of PE If it is not happening then debt of Rs 3200 crore Tree Pe is complete so now Enterprise What will be the value left, Rs 3000-3500 crore? you told 30,000, remember the entire equity in it How much will the component be? The maximum will be the same What Maximum Equity Component Right to equity will come 12 You became homeless 12 people became homeless directly, 3000 This was financial verge This is financial This is operating leverage, this is Financial Financial With the help of operating leverage right So operating leverage kicks in. Financial leverage kicks in Now if his peer rating has improved, right? So brother, that 7000 worth 3500 crores 10,000 crores came because its PE increased. So the equity valuation you are giving for it there he went So then you’ll make more money and that PE retech will be a huge money grab And that comes when your operating leverage Keen because you’re doing well and Investors think it’s good Sustainability Sustainable Efforts Pay You If you are going to do it for a long time then do PE. will rate itself And to Make Maximum Money You Need to See Tell around in both the both these things way Interesting and which such industries are there right now? that you stay completely away from Absolutely, you know, it is on the help of optimism. I won’t say optimism, but another thing that The industry is the airline industry. So there too there is the same tourism hotel. The issue of the industry is the same issue there. Where input and output are under your control I am not there. fortunately unfortunately whatever has happened What happened in India that the whole Consolidation has happened. There is almost one player Single player everything is very different. It becomes a story. But if here If there is competition then you will not make money. Can. So wherever there are small airlines has started, there are big airlines There has been an impact on rates. 100% Meaning, where those people are not there, there they are They are asking for more money. right now but right now If you look at any market, एक अलग ही स्टोरी चल रही है। Of course this The story of consolidation is going on that friend He is the player. दूसरी स्टोरी चल रही है कि It is absolutely free. पूरी ऑक्यूुपेंसी पे चल Used to be. After that they see that friend इतनी सारी ऑर्डर बुक दे रखी है। to Airbus He has given so much. and then speak Is. पेनिट्रेशन सिर्फ 1% पापुलेशन के पास Is. So it will grow slowly. so everybody Is Saying Good About the Industry. It’s Good case where in a single player is Making lots of money. Right. But It Is Not As If competition cannot come into those areas. Ok? Slowly and gradually they will come. Ok? Capacity हुए हैं इस इंडस्ट्री में। big players ऑलरेडी आउट हो गए हैं। and input into it and बनाने का चांस होता है। Competition comes Then it will go away from you. आपके मार्जिन शंक हो Let’s go. तो बहुत सारी चीजें आउट ऑफ आपके There is control. इसलिए मेरे को थोड़ा वो ना जो In the industry. तो दैट इज द रीज़न आई वुड Like to stay away. It’s Not a Bad Industry to be in considering the fact but There is only one player there who is the major player Yes, but this risk will remain and then Valuations at your comfort It will not remain. If this is the valuation of 2020 If the valuation is for 2022, it’s MK. It’s a Blind of course. Optimism is on Sir that you are staying I would say stake away we have invested in Industries were in like Power Transformer Company We Saw in 2020 That change is happening so we requested also We invested also so I would like to put fresh money so there is a growth which Is Visible Because of Variety of Changes which are happening in the industry ah or Growth is happening there right now and it’s quite There is huge growth. A but then the valuations then the same According to him, he has grown up a lot. so to me Thinking hard about getting back into a new position It will fall there. Industry is some of your tweets. This The Story Behind the Tweets We Want To Learn You say the day you know that you are buying a Multibagger Stock. It Is Never Going to Be Multibagger. What does it mean? So what happens is you become biased. He from the room. Isn’t it? So you think that The valuation of this company is very good. Is. This is going to be a multibagger. So you are a Expectations build up. Expectations build up. You are biased They start doing it. Then you can take its negative There is an aspect that they would have started leaving. Are. If anything negative happens, you Let’s start discounting it. Any Even if it is telling you negative You discount those negatives. Because you know you feel like I know everything about this company. about. Because in my opinion, It is a multibagger. Today it is ₹30. This is for ₹300 Is it going to be sold or is it going to be sold for ₹3000 Is. Whatever is the level of multibagger you are R Thought About. So, you have a preconceived notion Notion Built in Your Mind. as soon as you Have that, you are going to lose money. Because you will not be able to hear the Negative part of that company. You will be so You four. There your ears will be banned. If you make money, you are lucky. there is no Doubt about it. Ok? But if you don’t make Money, it’s because of your behavior issue. So You keep your expectations on Extremely Very Low Extremely Low Still so I am whenever I am buying I’m buying with the thought process that these 15 50% is going to come down, minimum, this is a lot It happens in companies like I started that company What did you say, who will do this, later, then later It’s a different matter but it’s multibagger Keep your expectations very low and you should have the capacity when He’s coming down, so go get him. Because you’re buying pessimism right now. पेसिमिज्म कब तक चलेगा यह पता नहीं है। Is No? Nobody knows. Optimism is also Doesn’t know. Does anyone even know about pessimism? Not there. Making Money From Butt Pessimism Relatively It will be easy. If you have control over your behavior There is only one. The second one is when he’s coming down. in pessimism and you know that permanent There is no disruption. पब्लिक परमानेंट ये बंद If not, the valuation will be more attractive. It will happen for you. Case for you Strong will be there to take over and from there when If it goes up, it will go above that price. Who You have taken it, it will go from there. below We are going to go higher with money. You had tweeted during Covid itself, tell me The first thing you do when you step out of the house What would you do? Everyone had said hotel कि हम बाहर जाएंगे घूमने जाएंगे। and that was a clear sign that you had a case study I saw that the entire hotel was Industry I was going through crazy stress. you understand I came to the conclusion that there is no permanent destruction. Is. फिर आपने देखा कि यार कुछ कंपनीज़ के Pass you know pentage is good. Dept also I need that much. The balance is strong. as much as Operational Excellence They Could Do That He had done it. He was strong to them. And then you bot the put identity and hens You treated this also. you also treat it Will there be a customer base for completely Offline banking. No online transactions. You will have to write checks. Visit your bank for Any transaction? No IDs and passwords. No ATM, No Paytm, UPI, No Credit Cards. विल यू बी इंटरेस्टेड इन सच अ Service. What Was the Insight That You Were Thinking so before publishing this tweet? So That’s a so first is about hotel Industry We Already Discuss Away Hotel Because of Covid, we know about its second wave. Pestilism You Will See That Companies Are Butchered Okay, ah, these companies, which I analyze and Covered in my case study for the 10 companies Excited and they were having great assets Amusement parks and those kinds of things Asset. इफ आई लुक एट ओनली रूम्स रूम्स दिस R Five Star Hotels 2 crore is the thumb room For one room. सो इट्स ₹1,000 करोड़ एसेट Coming at Rs 29,000 crore. Simple a simple of That. Second there are restaurants Amusement parks which are outside now this valuation thimble valuation so if it’s going to be bigger than that so it’s a it’s A No Bread Up Go By Clear Cut And Just Be Pay And if you don’t know who’s in it, man. Will survive, will not do financial Leverage of so and so or its management There is a chance that you may not buy the full bucket. Five, six, ten companies As you said, top 10. These are the top 10 companies, buy from them. Look, you had to make money and today it is 29,000. Enterprise value of crores today 2 lakh It is above crores. It’s been 4 years, it’s been 4 years I made so much money, if you look at the CAGR There is a huge CAGR. Right? We Were Lucky Also because the company survived. seconds I am no longer what we expected Were you saying that it will not happen? Human You Know Race Will Win Over All the Hearts That We Have. End We Rebate to Be Very-Very Positive During the passivism period. Isn’t it? passive Buying Passivism Doesn’t Mean That You Are Positive about the future. So, I’m the Guy Who is extremely positive over the fees. Which are buying pessimism? Isn’t it? I am I’m thinking that it’s going to survive. The human race is going to survive. De R Going to win. All We Are Against All Orders But will do well. So, that’s as simple as that That. Now, The second case that you are talking about, About the banking industry. so what What was there in my mind was why I Tweeted This is a different kind of service Can be offered by the banks. Ok? Ware In Those who are not interested in online at all Okay because I heard about some of the cases Where people have lost substantial money so During that period I met one of the Promoters or relatives of the promoter himself Expires in a cybercrime case And it was very unfortunate it impacted me very badly at that day so After that I tweeted about it so I thought That Why Not If We Have Only Offline Banking Available For certain things, will there be customers? So I still believe that there is a Market for it. Ok? There is a market For it were it if banks could provide Completely Offline Jain. Ok? Everybody Has Gone Online. Beautiful Fantastics Required Fast Superb. But Still There Can be no Transactions which if we can bring it Completely offline. a product which is Completely offline which is only through Cheques and may be through banks and may be you No bank employees coming at your place if You If You Are If You Are A Customer Which Can Be Service from your home then bank is Directly providing that service okay so If something like that can be provided By the bank, this rate is charged with a premium of Of course because this will be a premium service Then There Is Looks Like There Is a Market for him very interesting In the Stock Markets, the Most Dangerous Fuzz Is that this time it’s different and the most डेंजरस वर्ड इज नेक्स्ट। Its example Give it. So this time is different, it is every time is different actually every time whenever Ah you’re going through pick optimism ah Not that the pick pessimism. pick optimization You will see people saying that this time is Different. Ok? in every sector which is Going Through Optimism. Weather It Is It Boom of 2000. Ok? एंड आई डिस्टिंक्टली Remember during that period it was ToK Bug. Or Started with the Because of That. End The Indian Engineers Got Famous Because They Were able to solve the Solve the Provide. Or yes because you had the old legacy Digits. Year was written in two digits. Bus Or And It Has to Migrate to Four Digits. Otherwise 99 would not have happened now. Year 2000 was an issue. 1999 and 2000 was An issue because it remains 99 to zero and क्लॉक विल बी वहां से शुरू होती। Now Look At how it got portrayed in media को फर्स्ट जनवरी होने वाला है। that day प्लेन जो है गिर जाएंगे। Isn’t it? This Kind Isn’t it? और ये बहुत बड़ा अपॉर्चुनिटी है Life’s Year 2000. What happened? Just 8 9 91 Unfortunate incidents occurred. But that It got triggered. एक कुछ ना कुछ ऐसा ट्रिगर It happens. चाहे जब ऑप्टिमिज्म पे हो कुछ ना Pay Ho. वो ट्रिगर हुआ और आप देखो पूरा का पूरा सेक्टर नीचे आ गया। The valuations that were सर्वाइव ही नहीं किया हुआ। and among them These were reputed firms. मतलब लगता नहीं था कि वैल्यूएशंस कभी खत्म हो सकते हैं। For Has gone. तो जो आप सोचते नहीं है वह होता It has started online for the first time people accepted that you can work from home You can, otherwise it was very difficult to Make the industry accept that you work from home You can do it if you work in the industry If you have done it then you will know that people Were not comfortable now how people started. Accepting this after Covid? So ZM has a A different time came. The company also started doing it online. Now Zoom has a A platform for communication came into existence. His Look at the valuation, where did you get to? and then P will started believing that friend iska to no mean Everything is This Is Different, right? This is to stay It is the same one. it’s gonna happen. You saw the valuation, it crashed. Where did the price come from? Isn’t it? Still online but in a different mode is in. Did Zoom make that money? To the people? Probably not given. Isn’t it? Then If you look at it now, it is an AI The wave is going on. If you are in front of someone If you speak against AI, it will say friend They don’t know anything. And This Type Is Different Again Because A.I. It is sustainable, it will sustain 100%. The computerization that has taken place and the computers The field of software is It has been sustained. Because of valuations There is no money to be made in those companies. AI right now Because of the valuation of those companies Money will be made or not. Is this company Will she be able to make that much money or not? Will people pay them money? For a subscription model? Or is it just a Will it remain a story? Only Time Will Tell As Weather This Time Is Different Or Not. So Time is Different or Not Only Time Will Tell You, but I think every time you believe that it It is different. It is not different. it is the Beans. Talked to me. Ah paper industry is one of your I think favorite industries, right? Let me Understand what is happening in the paper Industry. Why are you always seeing me? You in this book company, the book company We have read the book every time, from 11th to 12th. This Book Company That You Tracked in 12th Red a lot that’s paper industry that is Actually a Publishing Company Publishing Company Yes So So in publishing in the listed space, two There are only three players Okay, he’s a player and Valuation wise is reasonably valued when it When IPO was brought, it exhibited high prices. The price was very high and the valuation was very rich. Was. We went there and died in it. Now that he is dead Then the whole Covid came and then the end Gave him a lesson too. उन्होंने सब क्लीन अप Did. His 2.2 gave him all that run. Sarah Cleaned up. जहां पे उनके हाई कॉस्ट ऑपरेशंस थे सबको क्लोज डाउन किया। Ah Joe के क्लीन अप चाहिए थे। All that happened in it. ok that’s now 2023 The भी चेंज नहीं नहीं हुआ था। so there are two NEP is education policy. Period. Before that I was in 11th only. 11th class After that came 10th plus two. So you started doing 12th. We just got the old First one. 12 curries were 12. Ok? So 12 लिए फर्स्ट या सेकंड था पहले है ना? So 10 Has gone. आज यार आप 86 के बेसिस पे पढ़ा रहे हो बच्चों को वो चलेगा ही नहीं। Absolutely This won’t work. 86 में तो कंप्यूटरर्स ही I wasn’t there, friend. Today is in your hands There are computers. in the hands of children There are computers. What is that even? The child will get bored going to school. For him वो डिस्कनेक्ट दिखेगा। He is very advanced and बहुत ज्यादा वायरल हुआ था। Ah My Intent Wasn’t Dead. आई वाज इन फ्रस्ट्रेशन टू सी फॉलोइंग सर्टेन प्रोसीजर्स। Ok? and those Right? अब वो आप अगर 44 इयर्स बाद उसको Time. But of course this process got Started. NCF is the second part. So Get Changed Right Old Books Gate Discontinued and New Books Come Whenever New books and second hand market should be completely out goes and those who are ah publishers they make Relatively good money over a period of couple of years and if you look globally Just five globally will you see yes Publish Company Book Publishing Company Wiro lot of money just to give an example A US-based book publishing company Whose name is Megan, you know You must have read books in India too, right? He comes in white colour on red colour. Do you know which company it is? The company votes in the US Don’t know pass SA OK SAP votes vs company Europe no Chrysler So Book Publishing Companies Are Very Cash Ray Companies Magroh Hill Ones Chrysal Chrysal Indirectly indirectly Yes, until a few years later, I think now. Something has changed in the meantime That I must not be aware of but for a Very Publishing companies make so much money. How does she make so much money? So it is sustainable, right? Official Sustainable Is. You have a very high margin in books. Is. Isn’t it? and Since You Started Publishing The Books You Get Aligned With Schools. School These are aligned with the curriculum. Isn’t it? And you follow only those books. Are. If the book you were given in school They continue to follow the same people. Isn’t it? So you second Will not buy anything. If unorganized Something might be coming from the sector, you will take that No. That’s why it becomes very difficult to tell anyone else To take entry. So many entries. It is in it. So much more in India There are also more publishing companies listed There are three major players who are listed There are many players in the unorganized sector who Let’s work. But the Indian market also It is very big. And the Company That Number of School Wise Right. The Company That We’re Talking About? How is it better than the other two three listed Companies? Sir? Yes. see because That’s the For that you will have to understand the industry a little. So if you look at the school industry, right? So there are two parts in it. Majorly two There are parts. One is the State Board and the other is It is CBSE. There is also ICSC. Cambridge also There are many others too. But mostly you will see whether it is CBSE or It’s a state board, right? Yes. The power of the C State Boards is slowly It is gradually decreasing. Schools from many state boards are either Are you going to ICSE or CBSE? Are being transformed. Ok? and parents Also the same where CBSE goes to CBSE. They Their inclination is slightly less in the State Board. yes. So CBSE is the major service. Three 50% of the players who are one of the players The revenue comes from publishing and 50% of it comes from stationery. So one thing of his ended here. Second In what comes from publishing, it is majorly It works only in two states and those states She does it for the board. Gujarat and Maharashtra. So he completely Got out. A. Another company which is very It is small in size. And this is the company that It works primarily with CBSE. Is. But she also does it for the state board. Since India has a legacy business which is Acquired through Everyday and to him also that So there are almost 30,000 CBSE schools. Schools in India which is itself a Big mood. Right? Very interesting. But they make a lot of money out of it. And what you said is that because their IPO I came on premium, I got Covid. Very interesting. So when we started looking at it the Now to 30 This In some butt Overluded or not Used to be? उसको प्रॉफिटेबिलिटी कितना आने Going to do? How much profit is going to come? His How is the cash flow? its balance sheet How is the strength? of that which is receivable Are you going to? ये चीजें देखेंगे तो आपको It will become clear. Can You Only Come Across by Talking to Buy Looking at the number. looking at the Publicly available information. Should we take one balance sheet? I Want to know what you’re watching on screen when you’re Looking at Certain Things What’s the Flow Of Things That You Look We Can Remove the Name Of the company, but I want to show you can we Can We Do yes we can do that You will see my tweet, no name in it. It is written but the name of the company is not mentioned in it. Generally avoid company name not public Good or bad, whatever happens, I am not puts It will be very very rare whenever the name is mentioned Especially when I’ve covered it somewhere. only then And even when we cover it, I’m very Be careful when you see the recommendations. We are giving it to our clients, right? Remain careful. But still that thing It is under our control because if there If something is wrong, tell them again. You can tell your clients that boss, this Take the exit, this is going wrong here. But now if you go somewhere on a public platform or going and speaking in front of a group You will never have that opportunity Also. you don’t know that kiss Who bought it because I said so and then when I I will never want my position, friend. That someone might be harmed because of me Had to bear it. Hee or I’m very very very Careful, so what happened to this company? I also tweeted. I was completely He is a biased friend. He told me that this Look at the company, you are still turning around. I refused saying no friend I am not I will see. बट ही इज़ अ वेरी वेरीरी गुड friend hum And I trust him a lot. Naresh sir doesn’t have it. No, not Naresh Sir. Ok. Ok. Naresh Sir has that other one The company was. Ok. So I told him that friend, this company So don’t take it. This second company is out Of question. I didn’t make that, did I? For him. He has also done relatively well. इतना बुरा नहीं किया। Therefore, the price at which We have come a long way from there. तो फिर 101 दिन चले गए। Then back he He called me and asked, “Did you see that?” मैंने कहा नहीं मैंने नहीं देखा है। See आप फिर पांच सात दिन चले गए। Then he मेरे को बोला कि यार देखा कि नहीं यार? So If it’s his third time someone is calling तो देन आई हैड टू सी दैट। And I have to Give my feedback. Then I looked at it and I found it very interesting. 202 Hu Was नहीं वो फ्रेंड है ठीक है। Okay okay. Not a Famous Public Market Investor Only Not very visible cricket ok This is very interesting. And then I Forest. Got it. Ok. पीएनएल में देखो नहीं। No flow First to see. वही सबसे पहले पब्लिक देखती है ना। Correct Is. पीएनएल देख के ही गलतियां करनी है। So Ok. It is in 675, right? Isn’t it in 2017? No? इसका 2017 तक का रेवेन्यू अवेलेबल will be. We Correct वो कोई क्वेश्चन नहीं करेगा। then be 47 गया और आईपीओ आया तब तो 61 हो गए। it बढ़िया ग्रोथ दिख रहा है। Dazzlingly if you brought the IPO In Covid Sales were down, sir. Here you will see things that will help in growth It was happening, now look at the receivable numbers. Because no one can see him till 2017 Look how the receivables are growing? 631 How fast are receivables being processed? You check the number of the receivable and Check the profit numbers. You will see that There is a lot of divergence here. Then The number of receivables has decreased. These decreased Meaning what did he do? of receivables I booked my loss. He is not coming. This is a bad date. This is the loss book here. Happened. Then this and clean up happened. Now you You will see that the number of receipts kept decreasing. How did this number come? is stable and Growth is coming because of receivables numbers With your revenue and profit numbers There should be only growth and if there is too much If growth is happening then there is a problem, isn’t it? The number of receivables became second Look, look at the cash flow -8, this is 13 38 This is a crore, this is 32, this is 39, isn’t it, this is the profit? No, whether it is good or not depends on profit. I will speak on the basis So if you people say whatever you want, then it will Look at the comparison of operating profit Or look at the comparison of net profit Net profit should be 1:1 and or It should be more, that’s the thumb rule, right? You Look how profitable this is. 61 crore, 47 Yes, it is 33, it is 43. Isn’t it? If I look at these four years till 2017 then These 100, 130, 150 180 It is around 100 150 170 crores. Isn’t it? You Look at the cash flow, it is not there till 2017. It doesn’t exist. There’s nothing. There is no cash flow. और इन्वेस्टिंग बड़ा The amount is increasing. of investing It is becoming a huge amount. Cash flow then Isn’t it? So it is bound to happen to you. These फिर नंबर कहां बिल्ड अप हुए? Your रिसीवेबल्स पे नंबर बिल्ट अप हुए। Isn’t it? And you see these dapts, you dapts kept increasing. Kia came to 197 and then it decreased further and here payables is Have receivables increased? is 100 It’s almost 200 Isn’t it 310? the exact reverse Can you play games? She does it when she रियल नहीं है तो बढ़ेंगे क्या? Your रिसीवबल के नंबर्स बढ़ेंगे। Right? So that इज़ वन डेफिनेट रेड सिग्नल। of receivables नंबर एग्रेसिवली बढ़ेंगे। Second, if his कैश फ्लो में वो दिख नहीं रहा। again and अगेन एंड इंटरेस्ट थिंग। Third Is Company मल्टीपल एक्विजिशंस करते जा रही है। So many का ही प्रमोटर्स का। Specially Overseas There is a problem. ऑक्टो सर्किट में सारे What do they usually do? सो दे सी देयर आर मल्टीपल वेज़ ना। Today, which कंपनी है वो खुद की कंपनी है बाहर। own ओवरबिलिंग कर दिया उसका। his money is more Gave it. पैसा ज्यादा दिया और फिर वहां से Took it. Take it like this. Interesting. What Else? कैन यू मेक आउट अपार्ट फ्रॉम Understand Will not come. The money will not come. It’s been over 180 days Meaning there is a problem. Isn’t it? that money comes It is not going to happen. अनलेस अंटिल इंडस्ट्री इस It is typed. The publishing industry is one such It is an industry where there is a cycle of one year. Can. There may be a sale of 180 days. So you Give the benefit of doubt. But if the one with 180 days The numbers are continuously increasing. and that is related to the growth of your profits. are also increasing So then it’s a major problem Because those old ones also built up are there Right, and they will never come. They won’t come again And then sometimes you will have to book a loss. You will have to ultimately book that loss. will have to do it Short Term Where do those receivable numbers sit? Where do the receivable numbers sit, that PNL They don’t fit in, they don’t fit in cash flow. They sit on your balance sheet. You can remove it from the balance sheet. You will take it out someday, not today, but in a year or two. You will take out three years sometime or the other. When When you take it out, it will reverse it for you. If you have to calculate the profit number then that loss will come. is going to be there So you can predict this, you can see that 100% You Can See Now Like Octo Circuit Pe If your numbers are available here Don’t know whether that trade happens now or not. Will there be such an old number here or not? Let’s see Yes, it is from 2011, look you are very It is interesting, you will see it right in front. Look at this, look at the receivable numbers. 600 Crazy In 2015 and it was crazy at this time too. It was crazy in 2012 too. What happened suddenly after that? All that was cleaned up here. If there is a clean up here, you can see it in 2016. Profit. Look, the loss has come. In 2015 itself He started it. And Los came. Loss has come. There was a complete loss. And He must have made the pic here. here it is You must have understood it. Ye Ye in 2014 Its peak was 2012-13 and if you find yourself here Go to Pay Investors and look for Yearly It is not before that. This is FII’s Holding is not shown here. We So there was a very high holding and in this their There was also the promoters’ pledging and Sara’s All acquisition led was that you if that If you read it, all the acquisitions are happening. The goodwill will increase If you also see goodwill, it will increase. Look at that payable, you’re not moving any payable. Were C There was nothing payable, your receivables kept increasing. Your inventory is increasing If you look at the numbers, how much profit Showing that they were making profits Yes, it was 63 to 699 crores and look at the profit. Look at its operating profit margin. 40 42 39 39 44 Look now - 45% revenue of 8 crores still They show it’s a clear case of you know Having Issues and You Didn’t Get It If you look at Consolidated Consolidated, and You will see a good picture, wait a minute now. You go back and look at this in Consolidated. Look at the receivable, oh my God, this is receivable. want to see Because he did a lot of things through subsidiaries. subsidiaries it has acquired I brought it through you see this receivable number This is a true picture, you should not stand on it. I have it consolidated by default. And look at this, look at the profit numbers. Look at this profit, from 573 crore 200 to 573 800 Crore to 2300 Crore Three Times Revenue in Three Years The stock was about to dance, then what happened The light has come on, yes the light has come on, cash flow Look at his cash flow, you can find it here. Let’s see what happened from 2009 to 2014. 2009 number these these 500 6 550 right 550 crores is 1 2 3 4 plus 500 is 550 crores 2 3 4 500 crore About 600 crores yes After that the negative started and the game itself ended. He is over Very interesting It is not in this Old नहीं वो कहना मुश्किल है। in going bust It is difficult. But for example, AI only We will take it and whatever is associated with AI will happen. May be sustainable in the long term Sir, will money be made in that business? It will not be for the company and the investors. I have a doubt. Something other than AI Are there AI companies in India? I am the one talking. Global to Impact Then he is going to come everywhere. It is going to happen if something must happen somewhere. And do you invest in US company also? Portfolio in India ok got it Fully Risky But not diversified that one Some People Do a Crazy Job If I leave India, I think we have Lots of Opportunities We May Miss Some Like No AI yet But in the form of AI which is supportive There are industries there so there should be something in it There is a sector of Like Power where But we are also exporting. Power Key If there is huge demand then transformers are going I am from India. He is one of his growth Look Sir Charp has gained 6% in the last 10 years. Was in India. meaning something more No, I am talking about transformers. Let’s talk about transformers. Transformer ki woh to huge growth woh The growth that has come is for almost 8 years. The latter has come from 2013. Actually That 2009 I was busted with that bicycle power. We There was a huge capex then and after that The bust that happened continued till 2013. 2013 After that, he really struggled, especially Transformer companies have no new There was no investment. After 202 he There was growth. Sir, one last rapid is wrong but Before that I completely heard you I Understand the Reasons But with Full Discover Can We take one last case study of a current Company and Not That Invested Without Taking Names and Something We Can Understand Your Fresh Mind Set Perspective and How Do You See Something Uniquely Where Other People Are Not Seeing and You Tell Me Which Company Whatever Company Want to share and take name about so we can We have already talked about the public sector Bank for example Bank of India So the valuation is okay, significant. Investment is in IT I again sir this birla new were you wait I think Jitesh Sir Jitesh Sir You are also I am also doing But what the hell are you playing what do So I don’t know what we’re seeing here Not so far we are not right on that but we Very cheap valuation I would say very cheap Valuation not very very cheap definitely cyclical pain you know it’s at a down Cycle It Said to Building Construction Material Company or It’s a Strong Brand Very Good Balance Sheet of the Company in nature and एक्सपेक्टेड फ्रॉम दिस कंपनी। A one is the डिमांड फॉर इट्स प्रोडक्ट। Second One Is Some Ok. इफ दैट हैपेंस देन द वैल्यू्यूएशंस आर डेफिनेटली इन फेवर। So you again have Has date also. That Wood Cake Inn. enemy Interesting. अह यू यू यू वर अगेन सीइंग दिस कंपनी कॉल्ड सिलचर टेक्नोलॉजीस। What इंटरनेट पे सब मिलता है। If you see all the Transcript. ट्रांस्क्रिप्ट पे ही शायद Your name was Perhaps. I don’t know. Who has become a fool? ok whatever we was able to see So a Silchar Scleral Pain Low Bass Hum Terms of A The Possibility of Turnaround Looking At The numbers, okay, I thought we should give At least one more year than one year turn Around to be one and a half year and then Covid Happened OK, so we waited when 202 was a period. When We Seriously Started Looking For All such opportunities including Transformers and Capital Goods Company. So this company was having a market Cap of around 75 crores that time. well it Was offering significant? I would say that there is a margin of safety. It has extremely good operations for Transformers. It has done all the necessary Expansion. It Has Moved Its Operations From its main facility in the city shifted outside that land was also Available. So that gives again you know some Comfort level in terms of a because we are buying crystallism it can stretch and The company is not able to support what it will Happened so this client can be sold off And you have some support system available so That is also available and when we Thought that there is a possibility of turn around in transformer companies because it A going through a cyclical low. there could be Another two to three years pain also. We need to Be Prepared and Whatever We Are Buying Can Come Down By Another 50% Veer Mentally Prepared we started recommending to our Clients also we recommended almost a Basket of Companies in Our Services When This Was the Company Which Was So Small That We could not recommend it to our clients. This Was the only company that we could not recommend To the client because 75 crores per month. so it Was a basket approach turn around over Gazeable. So, that is what I am saying. Even Demand the Parameters That We Were Looking At That changing? What was changing? What triggered the Change what happened which triggered the Scenario? So, Ah When We Were Actually Interacting With the industry people and we were Realizing That There Is a Change In the inquiries for their products. that We could see. When we were attending the con Calls of such company we could sense that there There is a demand changing for this company when We started looking at exports data We could see that some change is happening on that front also so smallsmall things could tell You are fine and when we talk about it Investments in such companies and people are Completely you know distort and you know Lost Energy Those Who Are Already Invested Then it’s making that case even stronger. Because people are now fed up, they want to take An Exit And if we are investing, we may also be Making That Mistake It Can Continue For Another Couple of Years and We Can Still Make Losses it’s not that it’s full proof and we End Up Making Profits All the Time They May Turns Out to Be a Loss-Making Strategy also but since as I mentioned earlier Valuation is on our side because you have They Imagine We have huge margin of safety. The Kind of Losses Will Incur Will have time correction as one loss and second सम प्राइस करेक्शन आल्सो। This two are the Possibilities But The Permanent Damage Of The Capital The Chances Of That Will Be Low In This True cases. सर लास्ट पार्ट क्विकली। You can send a line or You have to answer in one sentence. Ah what is one thing that you don’t agree With Jitendra Sir Rao. I know your partners. Yes. That You Have a Different Belief or Opinion From which is contradictory to the editor. It Happens many times, he may not agree on Sudden things with me I may not agree to थिंग आई विल कम टू दैट पॉइंट। Ah But The For each other. And It’s Not Only in Saying Over here. इट्स डेफिनेटली देयर। Enough of It Ok so for example Godavarivi which I give us an example then will have jalaw not this Factory Visit That You Have Made So One Factory Visit That We did it in Indore, okay it was and that is A company I again covered in public forum ok It Was Covered at the Time of Pick Pessimism For That Industry Industry I Meant to Say It Belongs to That Time It Used to Be From SME segment OK When SME Segment Got Bust 2018 Was the period when I covered that and again I visited this company afterws ok so I Visited and I found this proper to be Extremely Extremely Honest Extremely Honest What? So I will tell You. I will tell you. So generally whenever you Meet Management Okay They Will Always Talk About Positives. Very Rarely Will Management Tell You Negative. This person started with negative My voice is on. I had company there Have acquired it. I am suffering a loss Is. Isn’t it? I am going from here to what I I am making the product and sending it to the US. My logistics cost in that is Rs 5 crore. Used to be. Logistics worth Rs 2.5 crore is coming Is. These are all my losses. yes I try I am trying to fix it but all this Losses very rarely will be fine very soon And He Did IPO Few Months Ago Only What was the plan, what were they making? Water gates etc., flame gates etc. So again sort of a capital in products Goods I am very customized Products But It Became Multibagger Promoter Is Extremely Extremely Happy Honest Extremely Honest Very Rarely Will Find And He Still Remains That Way If You Attend Con Calls You Will Realize He will be telling you on your face that boss This is wrong, this is right. And you still hold that company? A little too smart Why did you reduce it? Because valuation Valuation Purely Valuation Your favorite investor from Pune? Jitendra of course Who Are What You Are Most Grateful About Right now? What? I am grateful to the market always. We Whatever I got, I got because of the market friend circle your interview is also of the market It is happening because of this. I think you have given the answer to this. could you Find Your Investment Side Closest Too? स्टाइल क्लोजेस्ट टू So My Investment Taste Style Is Very Close to buying the companies which are more Buying the industries which are going through a Significant. You told me. Yes. In Terms of a Person See in terms of person there are many People, what is that, his style is very different It can be from You mentioned that ES Chandram sir and your Style is Va yes whats the common So I am saying that you are ES Sir. Rajiv Thak Sir Rajiv Thackeray Sir, if you will see this or my partner who is jitan What are all these people doing to valuations? Sir or Manish Shokani Sir Still Means New Age कंपनीज़ में भी जाते हैं। Isn’t it? traditional Give respect. Isn’t it? Or Ramesh Damani I Thought Yes I Thought The mindset will remain. व्हाट इज वन थिंग अबाउट पुणे? and that Var Ruling Indore. So give form Indore. So डिफरेंस बिटवीन इंदौर एंड पुणे। and both the Heritage. सो व्हेन आई गो टू ओल्ड पार्ट ऑफ़ The City. आई रियली लिटरली गेट गूसबम्स दैट दिस सिटी एट वन पॉइंट ऑफ़ टाइम। so it I’ll see your Twitter. Yes. सो बिकॉज़ यू आर मेंशनिंग अबाउट टन यू इंदौर इतना क्लीन नहीं रहेगा। and after Going to Surat. सूरत विल बी वन ऑफ़ द मोस्ट Cleaner City. व्हाट व्हाट डीड यू ऑब्ज़र्व? Say that. Indore I see since you know I did my college Education from there so I know the background my my wife also comes from Indore my In loss from Indore I spend good 10 12 years, 15 years in Indore and what I See Is A Is It Complete Transformation That has happened in Indore when it became you No Cleanest City of India and It Remained so there was a public awareness which I could see but during last my Couple of visits I saw that there is a there Is there a different decline in an in This sense of pride and sense of Cleanliness I Think That Fatigue Was Coming In So that actually happens in Delhi Places. So Now what did you see in Surat? Oh! Surat was amazing. amazing. I Vent May I go to places which were Were relatively clean but wherever I vent It was superb. It was super road wise and You know cleanly race wise this was much much Better What’s your favorite ticker on Screener Metric and Triticale So I’ll be looking at you from the bottom Want to know the stock name The Ratio Ratios Yes Sorry Ticker No Ratio So it depends on the industry ah to be Very honest okay different industry will Have a different kind of ratios applicable Ah, it could be mostly, it is starting with Cash flow so I would be interested in cash Flow to profit ok is there converge Happening OK and if it is a financial Services Company This will not be applicable Right OK Because Financial Companies Will Not Have Operating Cash Flow Positive Because There Nature is Different or They Are Dead Best There Not be applicable but for other industry i Getting converted into profits गेटिंग कन्वर्टेड इंटू कैश फ्लो ऑन। So That is the starting point. then I will Look at the strength in the balance sheet. You know what is happening in terms of the Day Levels, What Is Happening In Receivables? Ah what is happening in there Fixed Assets, How They Are Growing. Ah सो, आई वुड लाइक टु लुक एट दैट। and if it What is happening if fixed assets are going Coming from the Investing Cash Flow End I would like to understand if this a Binance Financials If He Were Not In doing I would like teaching इन्वेस्टर्स वहीं पे ही बात खाते हैं। When रियल इंपैक्ट होता है आपका। How you? कंट्रोल करोगे उसको? so very much प्राइस देख के ही फिर रिएक्ट करते हैं। You बिज़नेस को इवैलुएट नहीं करते हो। You प्राइस को इवैलुएट कर रहे होते हैं। And this Language Reading Human Beings That You Have recently figured out that guy for yourself Helpful in explaining the business to the other person Kitna emthi hai that is very critical isn’t it The one in front is a minority share. The holder is the majority, you are your interest. What will that do to the share price May it increase. May it increase. Isn’t it? Whoever comes, you You will say good things. You will say good things. But when you You get such promoters who come forward shareholders are seen as If this will be its loss otherwise it will be more careless. They do it, they make a lot of money. Are. which is for minority shareholders He always cares about making a lot of money. We give. Always There is no exception to it. And that is One Way Being Honest Even with the Being Honest Having Money Even for the Minority Any other body language hacks and Understanding That You Have Cultivated Over The Years No, what is there now, there are many things. Like right now we are attending an AGF in the company. had gone to do There in Andhra, it is in a very small place. That company is in the village You won’t know what that company is. You won’t know. When you go there Then you will know. That for the company You will know what kind of respect you have. They What is she doing for the surrounding community? You will find out. Your view will change Complete. You will find that this company is It is Tata. You won’t know by sitting here. and when you interact you It’s understandable that this has made a difference to the community. What has this company done? and this this How caring he is to everyone there. Pay is involved. So such companies are generally Neither he nor such promoters generally Whether money will be made or not is a different matter. It matters, right? But intentions won’t be bad. Friend, I think I was reading in Pune too. About it. Like Chitali Bandhu. They owned a village and there were 4,000 people there. वहां पर बच्चों की फीस भी दी। Some Something Some good story was there. Yes. This is a very old company. What I am talking about is in 1947. The form was A complete hospital has been built and a park has been built. A statue has been installed in the park. It belongs to the guy who was his employee there. He was a security guy He retired when this boy was young. He joined the field of finance. Did. Completed CS. became CFO and He also retired from the company from there. There are. He is not going anywhere. That’s the end why he is associated because Long. वॉस् देयर एनी इनसाइड देयर? It. दे विल नेवर लीव इट। I ask them what Is there any attention? Zero. जीरो जो एक बार ज्वाइन करता है छोड़ता ही नहीं है। what do you think अच्छी सैलरी और मिल सकती है। large companies I can go into. I will take the bus. Straight कैलाश इज़ देयर सीटीओ। The 40 People Tech Team पीपल एक्सट जीरो एट्रिशन। There is seven do not do. जो लोग पे ट्रस्ट है बस उधर के Let’s work together. It’s very late. हम जल्दी से आपकी पेंटिंग Give me a breath. Favorite painting. दिस इज़ योर कॉन्सेप्ट एंड लेट मी अंडरस्टैंड द ब्यूटी ऑफ़ दिस। So And bears. Ok? बुल्स आर ऑफन डिपिक्टेड और अलाइन विद दी तेजी इन द मार्केट। Ok? और बुलिशनेस इन द मार्केट। and optimism And green color. व्हाट आई से इज व्हनेवर देयर इज अ ग्रीन देयर इज अ प्रॉब्लम। So That in green. सो दैट इज़ डिपिक्टिंग दी अह अदर साइड ऑफ़ द कॉइन। So it’s just can’t See in the Market. Ok? Now the second part Off it. The Shadow of Bull Has Bear and Shadow Of bear has bull. So, the market has cycles. Ok? So the Bull Cycle Will Not Remain Bull, It Will turn some day into bearish face. and beer will not remain bear it will turn into ah Bullish Face and They Are Expected in Grey color. So that’s the one that is always gray. End The Entire World Is Depicted in Blue. The entire world is in blue. Or very interesting. Very very very It has been done very well by the by the Artist. How did you figure out the artist? I Went to an Exhibition There I Found Her work. I spoke to her if she could you know do Dec. She Took Some Time But She Figured Some money also. That’s okay. I always respect artists. And when bear turns bull, when bull turns bear It is formed. What time is that? how is that It shows? That which we discussed so much did it now Also We Got a Small in your library thing for you sir my sister drew and created this painting Beautiful Painted Forest wow so convey my things to her or 100% It Looks Like the Real One Yes 100% 100% close I had this photo of mine, so I got it. This one thank you so much. You like it. Oh superb. Thank you. I want you to tell me what you said in the beginning I was told. I want to really know that Sir. So there are you no different set of books Which are there? Fictional Books. अगेन सम मार्केट रिलेटेड Books. And there are different versions of Geeta. Geeta is something that I have been Reading for Several Years. Big follower of Geeta. And with Geeta you did security analysis kept. Because I think he’s for me इक्विवेलेंट है मार्केट में। For me It is Geeta. सो दैट्स वेयर आई स्टार्टेड माय Journey. There were three books that I bought. Security Analysis of Permanent Value and Intelligent Investor. This I Boat In 2001. They are all In 2001. Ok. [Laughter] They are great books. Ah Analysis, Foreign Most of this are common books only. I don’t Here Right Now. Ah this is written by Phoolgendu Sinha. this one ok Sadhak Sanjeevani by A But the one Geeta which is returned by गीताज़ ओरिजिनल वर्जन गॉट चेंज। that is it was where you have नहीं नंबर ऑफ़ श्लोक में चेंज हुए। So now कर्म, भक्ति, ज्ञान। Or तो टोटल 18 चैप्टर्स हैं। Six chapters each सब में हैं और 700 के लगभग श्लोक हैं। Is No? वो बोलते हैं कि उतने हैं ही नहीं। They It is close to 200. So how is the rest of it is intercalated. वो उनका ऐसा क्लेम है। Is No? सो दैट्स वन बुक दैट आई रेड बट आई शुद्ध है और प्रामाणिक है। And my very In the Gita. मैंने बहुत सीखा भी है गीता से। एंड वी आल्सो थैंक्स। whatever you learn Two Only Two Books. They are the basis. आई वुड से आई वुड से कि टू बुक्स बट दे आर बेसिस। So Is. मुझे बहुत केयरफुल रहना चाहिए। If