Ep 55 Iran Us Deal The Big Geopolitical Shift Samir Saran Natstrat

[music] Namaskar and welcome to Natstrat conversations. My name is Pankard Sarin and we bring you conversations on geopolitics, national security, technology and much much more. Thank you for watching us and in this episode today we have someone who actually does not need any introduction at all. uh my namesake uh Samir Sarat who is the president of the observer research foundation a man whose face and voice is well known in India and I would say across the world basically a one-man army a powerhouse who travels who’s got wheels on his heels and the creator of the rina dialogue someone who has an unparalleled network internationally globally and who has actually uh converted the whole profession of international relations into a very high level of uh respectability in India and in some way I would say has revolutionized the whole think tank universe in India starting from very very modest and humble beginnings. So uh Sabir warm welcome to Natstart conversations and thank you for taking time and I want to also welcome you back to India and welcome back to India.

Ambassador Sar that was a very charitable introduction and I think uh my purpose for the podcast has already been served. [laughter] If we end it now it’s been a great podcast for me. Thank you for that introduction and and it’s I’m delighted to be here and to be sitting with you. You’ve been a icon for most of us and I think this is the first opportunity I’ve had to be on the same table with you. So I’m excited. Thank you. Thank you. And as I said it’s impossible to get you in Delhi because you’re traveling all across and as I said uh literally a one-man army. So let me begin by asking you a little bit about your own journey. I mean you joined the RF many many years ago and today it has actually become the let’s say the multinational corporation of think tanks uh universally. So a little bit about how you took to this whole international relations geopolitics universe and how did you combine entrepreneurship with scholarship and everything else and so what would you say to everyone who’s watching about how you transformed and converted this into such a big name? You know, I wish I had a nice romantic story around my journey. Yeah, we want you to have one. Let me give you a more real one. I in 2007 was at that point in my career when I was not sure what I wanted to do. I had been in the private sector for 14 years. I was working with what is still I think India’s most agile, nimble, entrepreneurial enterprise. U opportunities galore from oil and gas to electronics to telecom to real estate to food and beverages and everything else. And yet I somehow knew that this was not me. I didn’t know what I wanted to do. And uh I went to the one person who I’ve always sought advice from on on on what I should be doing. Uh and my father told me go back to college. So in 20078 at the ripe age of 36 37 I went back and started doing a masters in political science after having done engineering my in my previous life and uh when I came back I I was quite sure again that um private sector was no longer for me u and uh yet I didn’t know where I had to be going someone nudged me that you know there’s a think tank there’s of there’s Mr. star Kimishra who used to be the chairperson uh and I was able to meet him and uh I think one of uh and he was not doing too well at that time. He was he was not he was not keeping well but he gave me time he encouraged me met me gave me this opportunity and right from um you know that particular first meeting that I had with him something about think tanking excited me I didn’t know what it was uh to be honest it was a very different beast at that time when I joined we were 20 people I think u the the average age was 70 you know it was uh no but it was it was a great is because you had folks with so much experience who told you stories and I was starruck. You know the stories were what kept me in the room. The stories of of of wars and peace and of international relations of diplomatic conversations of Indra Gandhi and Reagan of of the 1971 and what transpired afterwards uh in the ’90s etc etc etc. that kept me inside the room that you know got me excited and eventually you know if you really feel comfortable in some space you start investing in that space and I realized that I had to give back to that space and eventually you know you had to build something that was different to what you had joined so what separates you from the rest I mean is it ambition is it self-belief or is it love for the subject which you uh which you entered into or all of them. I don’t know. I think I have I have like chronic ADHD. I think I basically want to be doing things. I need to be moving. I need to I need um I need new stimulus. And uh think tank is such a wide space. It’s such a big tent that it allows you to do everything. But did you uh face any glass ceiling issues considering your background engineer getting into IR you know this very very exclusive club of uh strategic experts and people saying who are you and what do you what do you know about the world see I lacked those three alphabets that were critical to be part of a international relations think tank three alphabets I didn’t have IFS so if you if you’re not IFS in 2008 India or 2007 India you’re not a serious actor So if you’re in the room because people are being kind to you, nice to you, you don’t deserve to be there. You are there because we are nice to you, right? So I I I certainly did not have that. Second, I did not have a PhD. Um and I asked uh I think it was if I remember correctly, it was Dr. Baru. I asked Dr. Bal Sanjay Baru that uh you know, should I do this PhD or not do a PhD? And he he said, you know, PhD is like clothes. If you don’t wear them, you’re noticed. If you wear them, no one knows. So but it it was a very clear message to me that if I needed to be in the sector I had to go back and invest in myself and then I went and acquired a PhD. I think I was 40 when I started doing my PhD. But you know if I had to be part of this world I had to embibe some of the you know the the skills and some of the attributes that were essential uh to fit in. So look, you have to work. But I was very clear that this um ecosystem offered an opportunity to rebuild completely. It was basically part retirement home, part departure lounge. In my first two years, I attended three prayer meetings and two conferences that OF had hosted. It was very clear that this was an economic uh landscape, a a livelihood landscape, an employment landscape that was waiting to exploit. And by the way today the youngsters who are excited by this sector is you know just look at the numbers everyone today literally wants to at least do an internship many of them want to do some short duration uh attachments before they move on with their careers and many make this into their professional careers many of them return back to think tanks after having served in private sector. My point here is that I think the in 20078 India India itself was transforming. Yeah. And I think since ’ 91 the the think tank sector had not necessarily kept pace. So when I entered I was very lucky because it was that period the next 15 years were to change this landscape forever. So I in a sense I always tell people that I saw a bus I climbed onto the bus. The bus had a destination written on it. It said India in the future and I sat on it and I tr and I and I wrote that bus. So I traveled the India story and that was the think tank story of the last 15 years. But you know the thing about it you showed the youngsters that there was a profession a serious profession and a career ahead in the field of IR and that you could actually do well. You could make a name. I mean you could you could make a living which earlier was not the case. I mean we had grown through this whole era of governmentf funded uh archaic think tanks. So maybe uh that’s your biggest contribution also to give that ray of hope. Look I don’t think we are the we are the only ones who are doing this now. I think there are many institutions who have made think tanking a viable and a comfortable profession to choose today. M there are some perhaps who are paying even more and I really don’t want to go into the salary dimensions here. I I would you know I I always tell people that in my mind there are three stages in a person’s journey in a think tank until the until you reach 30 uh the institution is investing in you. It’s it’s I would say the finishing school for for you know the studies you have done. Some of my people are listening to you. So so we are the finishing school in some sense. the peers you you eat with talk to the seniors you learn from the outsiders who come and impart their wisdom. They are the finishing school. The 30 to 35 or 30 to 36 the next 5 to 6 years is the growth stage where you are now bringing your personality into the organization and you’re being shaped by and shaping the organization. And here you will start seeing significant leaps both in terms of your salaries but also in terms of your responsibilities. And [snorts] post 36 you enter the leadership and the management stage where you are uh where where some of you are likely to actually be running institutions by themselves right and that’s for me at that stage once you cross that 35 36 you know you’ve done your 10 years of of of of work professional career I think that is a time when I truly believe there has to be a convergence in the human effort assessment between consulting and and think tanking. Yeah, I think at that level uh you guys should be assessed in similar ways because you are producing value that’s that’s truly yours. Let me come back to Samir Saran. I mean it is said about you that in terms of your network that you have the phone numbers of almost all foreign ministers and others on your mobile phone. Is that accurate? Is that true? Is that a myth or a legend? Total myth. Total myth. This is this is absolutely uh you can dial any foreign minister sir I can’t dial even [laughter] even the Indian foreign minister forget about any foreign minister my problem here is that these are myths uh we use emails we send emails by the way I’ll take a step back uh I don’t think it is important to have numbers uh people today are looking for opportunities people are looking for the alpha what’s different you know something new something unique if your organization or an individual offers that alpha you will be embraced. If you are going to offer something new, unique, different people embrace it. You know, I was I was talking to you just a little while back. I remember I went to in 201213 uh I went to um no 2010 uh Dr. Tru came to me and he mentioned that you know the party leadership was very keen that uh something like the summer school in Hamburg be created in in India and uh you know he also told me quite wickedly that you know I was not his first choice. He had tried a few others and [clears throat] and it had not gone too far. So now he had come to me and uh uh he told me what he really wanted to set up. young folks from around the world coming together thinking about the future, building a quasi informal network of leaders of tomorrow who could pick up the phone and solve problems and dial each other and and resolve issues. I like that concept and he told me why don’t you come and see what’s happening in Germany. So I traveled with him saw it in 2010 and I liked it so much I spent a few days there. I I liked what happened during the classroom during the the instructional uh hours but I liked even more what happened in the dinner table and and in the in the evenings uh amongst the young folks and uh I invested in building something like that and we created the Asian forum on global governance at RF and today it’s called the risina young fellows and we have 2,300 young fellows in 132 countries but now look this started there a request from someone who wanted now that this was a this was a time when um you know come a school like this was absolutely new, novel, different. Today many young leaders programs exist in this country. India foundation runs something very nifty. Many other institutions do some great job. But at that time in 2019, it was a brand new concept. It was it was the alpha. It was something new, something different. When you bought something onto the table, folks would you know and as a quit proco I told Shashi now look this is something I’ll do for you but you to help us create a global dialogue out of India. It’s it’s embarrassing that the Asian dialogue is a Shangriila dialogue in Singapore and not in India. Right. So I remember that at that time the minister Salman Kushi I think your colleague Sugatamea Meta who was secretary economic relations DH Bhya who was JSME they all kind of jumped onto this idea and um the only caveat was at that time they said let’s focus on the Indian Ocean region. So I could only call the 20 odd countries uh who are members and and observers or partner countries and we did a 28 country gathering in coin uh [clears throat] in 20134 you know in that charge but now look now you have so many dialogues that one was of of course uh with under prime minister Modi and and Dr. J. Shanker when he when he became foreign secretary we blew that up into the risina dialogue and today it’s 130 countries who participate in and you know you saw what happened this year despite uh the the conflict in on Feb 28th it’s become it has a life of its own right but again at that time it was a brand new idea in the you know 15 years ago it was a novel idea that someone was thinking so my point here is that no I don’t think numbers are important ideas are if you have an idea uh just mail it and you will see how many folks respond to it Yeah, I’ve heard this with many many successful people. the power of the idea which is actually something which defines success or defines growth more than money or more than anything else but uh and I so I don’t know how much time we can spend on the risina dialogue because we have so much more to talk about but is the right so I mean this is not this is just a kind of a a segue into many other things I wanted to talk to you about but on the risina it’s been a fairly it’s been a fantastic done uh and I remember you told me that you tried to innovate and change has it run its course or are you have you peaked or what’s your I mean whatever you can share with in in the camera about the Rina and its shape in the next few years look Rina is not peaked I think the best decade of Rina is the one that we’ve just embarked on this this coming decade is going to actually unleash the investments the dialogue has made in itself. Uh when I say investments, it means we have built a community. We have had over 30,000 walks walk through our doors in the last 10 years. Uh most of them have not got an opportunity to express themselves and yet they are part of our community. You know, end of the day and look we have 350 speaking roles on the main stage or in the side rooms. That’s it. We have 1,800 folks who fly into India. M so there is a there is a 80% non-participatory role as such presence at the dialogue we have to find ways of unleashing their presence right last year you partnered with us and you brought a number of them into your rooms we are partnering with many other organizations uh I think Rina is going to fully realize its potential when the wider policy community in Delhi owns Rena as af conference is done risa as a India conference is emerging this decade which started a couple of years ago. We have seen many of you come and take ownership of it. So I think this decade is going to be that big foreign policy week in Delhi where uh you know folks either in either in collaboration with us or directly themselves build conversations with using all the talent that is arriving in the city. So let me stop you there. Dr. J. Shanka the foreign minister has said not once but repeatedly at various events with somewhat costically that despite all of this success track one is still ahead of track two h what’s your response to that and are you able to influence policy but more importantly his challenge to track two that you guys are still behind track one look he’s right in the domains of foreign policy and bilateral relations. Track one is far ahead. I tell you something that has happened and I’ve seen this happening in the last decade. I I’ve spent two decades in this sector. In the first decade, we were ahead of track one and track one used to you know wrap us on our knuckles. Calm down, sit down. You know for example I remember we had suggested India Australia America trilateral for Indian Ocean and I remember Secretary East doing a press conference saying this is a figment of the imagination of and heritage and LOI and you know by the way a few weeks later it was implemented. We spoke about the quad. I remember I got at ris dialogue in 2017 the four navy chiefs and and I remember the trackman telling me you know quad are you kidding me? we should add [clears throat] one more add one more you know you know add someone else dilute the picture so you know look till some till some time and I and I say 10 years ago let’s let’s use the decade mark and I may be wrong it could be 2018 it could be 2017 but look I think till 2017 18 track 2 was pioneering it was willing it was entrepreneurial it was willing to be bold and sometimes audacious and many times it was willing to be uh admonished by by the track one for being to lose with the ideation right now I think all the new ideas are coming out of the track one in the last 7 to 8 to 9 years but this is in foreign policy and bilateral relations in many other domains that’s not the case I think for example climate action or or technologies or or even domestic or or domestic development issues I think there the track two is is is very robust very solid we are far ahead of the game but in foreign policy uh the you know I I think I think the track have started truly believing that they have become ambassadors they should you know they have started taking themselves too seriously seriously we have we have to be a little lighter have fun and and challenge the trackman with some bold ideas okay so let’s discuss some more serious uh issues of the world what’s on top of your mind nowadays let’s for the sake of convenience. Uh, pick up the Iran US deal and uh, is there a deal? Talk about that a little [laughter] bit. Give me your first impressions. Look, for me it is a memorandum out of exhaustion. It should be ane memorandum of exhaustion. We are both tired. Let’s regroup. Let’s let’s, you know, let’s breathe. Let’s let’s, you know, reassemble and then let’s fight again. I mean that could be one or let’s then proceed towards a negotiation but I think this is a memorandum out of exhaustion rather than that’s a good one. So so I think first of all I think they are one is not one one can’t knock the other one down [clears throat] the other one refuses to be knocked down. So you know you the the Americans have spent billions lost soldiers you know disrupted the global economy uh put applied all sorts of pressure and eventually they have given Iran what Iran always wanted a deal you know so in some sense what was this could have been done even before 28th of February right at least my rina would have gone up well so so so that’s that’s that’s one way of thinking about it the Iranians they’ve lost their supreme leader they’ve lost literally their nuclear scientists their top leadership they have lost a generation of military infrastructure they’ve lost it’s been terribly damaged and yet they have not lost the war. And that’s you know the paradox that they they have lost so much and not lost the war. The Americans have expended so much and not won the war and and of course if you look at uh the neighborhood uh you know uh who had literally bought American protection had to face a barrage of Iranian missiles right and then now they are seeing a spectacle in Switzerland where they have not been asked what they want. So in some sense they are seeing a runaway arrangement emerging after having paid for protection after having been hit by missiles and yet not being consulted in an architecture that is likely to emerge. Uh and then we have that wicked postman who opens a letter puts their own paragraph and signs his name under it Pakistan who is the influencer you know influence hunter and the and the uh you know the mediator who’s trying to insert uh new realities into whatever is happening. So I think it’s a very interesting deal or no deal that is happening at this stage. So we’ll come to Pakistan. Uh but before that I mean what I mean if you were locked in a room and suddenly the key was opened and you came out of the room and read this document 14 paragraphs you could and you didn’t know what had happened in the previous 3 months you could actually be quite justified in concluding that the victor in this whole thing was Iran and not the United States. If you look at the language and the core issue which was ostensibly the whole reason ostensibly which was the nuclear comes right at the end almost at the end of the entire document. The sequencing is so interesting because it begins with everything else what the Americans are committing themselves to do lifting the sanctions giving the $300 billion you know respecting sovereignty territorial. So and so I mean are there any people who actually believe that this is a document which reflects uh the fulfillment of US military strategic objectives? I don’t know. I mean, you’ve hinted to it, but look, you’re right. Uh, in if you were honest and if this agreement was to come into force, yes, you know, I’m just making an assumption here, you could argue this was as dramatic as the Biden exit from Kabul. M Trump signing this agreement would akin to Biden’s rather shameful, dramatic uh and costly exit from Kabul. So this is not a document that this is not a victor’s document. Yeah, this is not a victor’s document uh in many ways and therefore perhaps we need to rethink and reach the conclusion that maybe America did not win and maybe the the document reflects the reality of the dynamic of what actually of what actually of what actually happened and why are we therefore not giving uh the credit due to Iran for having outwitted uh and turned a military skirmish into a political conflict into a endurance struggle where they have outlasted the American capacity to stay in the battlefield and if that is the case then perhaps they deserve that document. The question will be who has emerged victorious or have both emerged equally bruised. Look, Iran has been hurt tremendously. I mean you know you can keep a list. It’s going to take more than $300 billion to rebuild what they have literally suffered in terms of uh the barrage of hostilities against them. But if the Americans are not smart and and don’t very carefully calibrate their next steps, this could change the American presence in this region forever. Yeah, I’ve heard a lot of people say that. You know, this could be the east of Sways moment for for for for us. you know you had the British disappearing at some point. This could be that moment when American influence in this region under goes really profound changes h and it is going to have and and of course we can discuss that separately but this would have implications on how we need to ch respond to the situation in our neighborhood. I mean look, one of the early consequences is the military arrangement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and now others being enlisted into it as well because I think those folks have already made the call that America is now not going to be the guaranter of security and they have to find other ways of of protecting themselves and since they need boots and they need soldiers, they need hired guns, who is going to provide it to them, right? So uh the whole uh I mean established relationship of security protection between the United States and its Gulf allies that has come into strong question very question right it’s a big question on the efficacy uh and on the endurance of America to offer that I think both are being questioned that one it is not efficient enough two Americans you can’t trust them are they going to be there for the longer play what is the mood in Europe you’ve just come from a long tour and you’ve had a lot of discussions on all these issues. What’s the mood there? How do they see it? I think Europe is convinced now that um uh one page out of the India book is good for their foreign policy, strategic economy. I think you know they are convinced now uh despite uh uh appreciating that strategic economy is a costly affair and and and let me frame this in two ways. One, Europe is confident more confident about strategic economy today simply because in spite of u America now literally unloading the entire burden of Ukraine front onto the European coffers and balance sheet. Uh it does seem that Ukraine has the second wind in its conflict with the Russians and this time it is entirely sustained by European efforts. So in some sense Europe is feeling confident that as an aggregate group it can have influence in strategic terms. So that’s one way of framing it that you know recent Ukraine uh battlefield uh tactical successes. I think they’re still very far from having any directional changes but tactical successes are in strong partnership with Europe. Although no doubt American weaponry and American capabilities uh continue to No, but I want to ask you uh to go back and push you on that point about how do they see uh the outcome of this on the Middle East on the Iran issue. I mean what we just discussed uh between the US and Iran and the US position and look hesitate because they they were I mean their discomfort with the whole Iran uh campaign was so evident. Look Europe is largely convinced that this was a bad war. This was the bad war America was going into. And by the way, they none of them came out and said this in so many words, but all of them by their decision to stay away expressed it. Uh and I’m sure some of them said it behind closed doors as well. But uh I think the overall European position was it was a bad war. uh and uh to me I think it was a bad war not uh only because of what was being uh sold as the proposition but also because of the complete lack of consultation and and and evidence and uh sharing of information that could justify action. I think if you remember even for a false WMD war that the Americans fought in Iraq there were you do you remember Colin Powell making trips to every capital in the world literally going to the UN security council making a case false case as it turned out to be but still making a case I think this was a badly uh conducted political and strategic operation this was a this was an incompetent white house uh on full display this was an incompetent white house I think this is the right way to describe it. But this seems to be uh pretty much a consensus view of almost everything I’ve heard. No, you talked about strategic at all. I want to ask you and switch a little bit now from this to a more direct uh question of more direct relevance to us, which is the state and health of our relationship with the United States. Uh you know, you’ve done a lot of work on this. How do you uh see the current uh situation? Where are we positioned? uh how what is the prognosis for the next let us say 2 years 2 and a half years 3 years [snorts] [laughter] I think that’s long termism now one and a half two 3 years is like looking really crystal ball gazing but uh look I I think the we have to look at a few milestones one of them of course is what happens with the deal that we’re talking about the Middle East deal and post the Middle East deal How does the importance of the region and certain actors in the region uh get recalibrated in Washington DC and what does that do to the bilateral specifically uh are we continue are we going to continue to see uh the fascination of the white house with the dictator in Pakistan or are we going to see a recalibration of its relationship with Pakistan and I think that is going to certainly have a bearing on what unfolds visually India that’s one way of of of assessing what’s happening but I think the second important date perhaps even more important is the midterm polls uh and I think uh we should not uh underestimate um uh the outcomes and their implications for global affairs. Uh while those elections will not be decided by international relations, the outcome of the elections will decide international relations. So in some sense there is a we have to be watching it. They don’t have to be watching us but we need to be watching those elections. U a weak Donald Trump uh could turn two ways. Uh one build an international legacy something like NRO is trying to do. you know, since you have problems at home, you’re not going to make France the world’s smartest GDP. You can build a global legacy. So, Trump could become more internationalist simply because he is losing it all at home. Or uh Trump could actually respond to its MAGA base and uh go to double down on the policies. Uh and I think that would be the second uh date that we should be uh looking out for. Uh and and the third of course I think is uh the the return visit of Xiinping uh to wait. So are we I mean people say that this is a new America. Do we have is that a is there an accepted wisdom? Nothing is accepted wisdom in IR but to the extent it is. Do we agree or do we recalibrate to deal with a new America today which has changed forever? When it comes to the way we conduct our relationship with them, the way we see them in our overall strategic mix, foreign policy calculus, is it a new uh normal that we are heading into as far as how we deal with America is concerned as two nations? Look, I think it’s certainly a new reality we are dealing with. I don’t know if it’s the new normal and I don’t know how many times this reality will be disrupted in the next 5 to 10 years. So I think uh you might be yearning for this kind of America if the lunatics take over in the next elections. You might actually find this more palatable. So I’m I don’t want to bet on what the future has beyond the next two years. But I can tell you that there are three very clear messages from Washington DC. Number one, uh you have a hostile White House and this takes you back to literally Richard Nixon and his White House and that is what you’re dealing with. uh you may you may be flattered by some commentary here and there and you know some words and of praise and and encouragement but listen it’s a hostile white house they are [clears throat] not empathetic to you they are certainly not sympathetic to you and I think that’s a reality you have to deal with uh that you have a white house that is certainly not a white house that resembles anything from the second term of Clinton to Bush to Obama’s we’re really remembering the George Bushes and the Obama’s even Obama is being missed you know This is this [laughter] is a white house that makes Obama a friend of India. Obama 1.0 a friend of India. So look that’s the first message from Washington DC. The second u and this is equally important that uh you have a uh enterprise you have an entrepreneurial America that still is going to engage with you uh but it is not going to cut you any slack. So uh uh for the for the big AI platforms you are data for the the big tech companies you are eyeballs for the the big consumer good companies you are a market uh don’t expect that they are going to build your country up it’s we are now in the ikya world we have to do it ourselves it’s a do it yourself world so we’ll have to build ourselves in the idea that a strong India is good for America is over that was a George Bush worldview we gave a wonderful platform to a gentleman called Christopher Landau Listen, I don’t give platforms to anyone. People come and perform in those platforms and he missed an opportunity there. Or rather, he actually used that opportunity to make it clear to all of us what we need to expect from them. Right. Correct. Uh I you know, how did the room react when he said we are not going to repeat the same mistake we made with China as far as India’s growth is concerned? Were you there? I I was there. Look, I had to talk to him afterwards. So I and I unfortunately had gone to receive Sergey Gore when he was making this uh statement otherwise I would have asked him a different question. The ambassador was came in late so I had to I was just tending to him when he met I don’t think the ambassador would have been would have been very happy. He was trying to douse the fires here. I think he was tonedeaf. Chris Lando was tonedeaf when he when he said that a written text. Uh uh no I look I I’m not sure I’m not convinced that he was he was he was reading a script. He was all over the place. I watched that speech of his and I and I don’t know how much was written, how much was made up. But I know for sure even if it was written, he was stoned there. This platform was the place to come and build bridges. Uh he confirmed to a new generation of Indian thinkers that America cannot be trusted. Our foreign policy survey which for the last four years had been placing America as the most trusted country with 80% favorable rating this year had America at under 60%. And much below most of our other partners uh they have lost a generation of Indians. I I hope they realize this because this is such a mediated world. A whole generation of Indians are not going to trust the Americans again. And we had to work hard for a whole generation to get here to to get here. Right. We have we have lost one generation of effort and one one generation of next generation of what was the third lesson of so that’s the second lesson right and the and the third lesson the third lesson from white house is that uh we are going to see increasingly uh American intervention uh which is going to be absolutely devoid of consideration of its implications on anyone else. So the third one is that America fights for itself and costs of those interventions are borne by others. What we are seeing in the Middle East is a classic sign of that. By the way, even their Gulf friends are bearing the cost of American intervention. They are bearing more than us, right? Even more than us. So the third sign from Washington is I will fight. I will defend my interest. You will bear the collateral cost of it. So that is the third cause. So we have to be ready for this world where there where for the enterprise we are a market where for their strategic community we are collateral and where for the white house we are now clearly uh uh not a priority anymore. So you’ve mentioned Pakistan and China a few times and I was waiting for to gra to move to these issues to have a more kind of meaty discussion Pakistan. So I mean that really is a factor right? I mean uh uh where is this headed the USPakistan dynamic? I mean uh is Pakistan going to be rewarded? Is it going to be kind of Thank you very much. Let’s move on. Um I mean obviously it is a factor in I I wish there was any other response to this other than the fact that Pakistan always finds a way to get a reward for all the crimes they commit. Yeah, Pakistan has perfected the heart of being re rewarded for the criminal enterprise they have built. It is they it’s a mercenary state. It is a terror state. It is a a state that is dubious and and egregious. And yet they have been able to build a business model that rewards that behavior. And the Americans seem to be their repeat customers [laughter] over the last 80. It’s true. It’s true. So I I wish I could say that this time America will be different. No, America will not be different. I think a general in Pakistan has some sort of a X factor appeal in American political circles that we are just not able to understand. But the American political leaders, democratically elected leaders respond to generals in Pakistan and they have done it time and time and time again. But you know, have they been able to deliver Iran to the Americans? I mean from what we just discussed it looks like they’ve developed delivered America to the Iranians. Look I don’t know who they have delivered I have I as far as I’m concerned Pakistan has delivered both of them to themselves. [laughter] Pakistan’s job was not to deliver Iran to America or America to Iran. Pakistan’s job was to make sure both of them believe that Pakistan is their guardian angel. And I and have they been able to do that to some extent? Yes. Yeah. Yeah. I have not seen any stinging criticism of Pakistani actions in any of the uh two public spheres. Yeah. Yeah. So I think Pakistan has has has gamed both of them and game them well. And and you and I can be astonished by it and we should be. But what’s the uh implication or should be the implication for us? I mean uh from a let’s say strategic point of view u does it change any of our own uh calculations as far as dealing with Pakistan is concerned or we are independently we make our independent decisions on Pakistan based on its own behavior to India. Look this is not the first time Pakistan has been in the thick of things. If you remember and this is important and many Indians forget this phase. If you remember in the George Bush era Yeah. Junior George Junior era we made the most rapid gains in terms of the bilateral relationship right who was the best friend of America at that particular moment. General Purveves Mashara. If you look at his projection and socialization in American media playing with a dog like an American president you know having a family photograph you know they were normalizing a dictator because they had to work with him. he was the what most favored non-NATO ally or some some some status was created to to define his role in their lives right and yet we continue to build our relationship so so even as the Americans were romancing and wooing the the the Pakistanis uh the Indian relationship with America was continuing to be built on different uh drivers and different uh you know platforms. Now uh why why did I make this point? uh their role at that particular time had very little to do with our emergence in the world. So while they were the single most important factor when it came to Afghanistan and Taliban which was the most important political moment right in the first 10 years of this century [snorts] we continue to emerge very quickly and I think we have to learn from that stay focused Pakistan is a distraction Pakistan as you know one of one of my colleagues who I shall not name once told me in a coffee table conversation that Pakistan is a 4 billion 5 billion terrorism challenge. We have to secure ourselves. Correct. We have to build around that. It is not a $4 trillion India’s GDP challenge. We we have much bigger challenges when it comes to growing our GDP from 4 to 10. [clears throat] Let’s solve those problems. Our national obsession has to be that journey to 10 trillion or the journey to Vix Bharat. What are the policies towards uh you know the Gal GCC or ASEAN or EU or Oh yeah sure. You know, so our Pakistan is a security question and we have to make sure that it is our response is muscular, costs are imposed and no freebies are offered. The the day that they could have non-state actors uh punish a state should be behind us. Uh every non-state action by Pakistan should result in punishment given to the Pakistani state. I think that should be a very simple uh principle of reciprocity, right? that you will pay costs and I think through operation Sindur and a few other interventions in the recent past before that uh we have in many ways created that space uh uh to be able to intervene [snorts] that is the Pakistan problem but I don’t think Pakistan necessarily should uh be something that obsesses us we have our obsession has to be that journey from 4 trillion to 10 trillion and how do we navigate a world in which the fundamental rules that allow countries to grow are changing For example, the approach to globalization, the approach to movement of products and services across borders, the advent of AI and what it means to work forces and those are the big questions of our times and I think uh those questions are going to be centered on our relationships with America, with China, with some other action. China. Good. So, China, what do you have to say? Uh you’ve spoken on Pakistan, but we have another story unfolding as far as China is concerned. uh which is uh in many ways even more u impactful for us. Uh Donald Trump says G2 again and again [clears throat] and we have another G2 on our border which is China and Pakistan. So you have this situation where uh America is uh going pretty fast forward with China and with the Pakistan. So what what does that make of your strategic environment around your borders? See before I come to this question I something just struck me you know I was see I was on my social media I saw Ukraine has created a inventory list and a digital uh archive and a digital museum of all the weapons and battlefield equipments that they have captured in the course of the conflict from Russia and they are telling all the liberal order liberal countries did you see that I saw that I think we should do that with our sindur everything that we have learned We literally we were fighting the Chinese through Pakistan. You know, we should open up our experience that you know what were we dealing with? What were the electronic components, the the anti- aircraft components? I think there’s something to be done there. I I I think Ukraine is smart in this. What they’re trying to do here is is is change the way the world is organizing itself. And we you have two unique experiences have have a unique experiences twice over. Once during our own direct confrontation with the Chinese in 2020 and now more recently with Pakistan. No other country has crossed with the Chinese like we have. We we have knowledge. We have experience. Let’s create a digital. I was just thinking that we should at least with some countries uh be building out to respond to the capabilities. No, absolutely. I mean uh that also was something which I saw. Uh very clever what the Ukraine are doing. It’s also a pressure tactic on Russia, but it’s it’s clever. I was just thinking now let me come back to your question. I think I want you to paint the bigger picture. Yeah. So now look the bigger picture is this and I think no one will disagree. If I was to make a esoteric statement that India and China have to learn how to work together. I think that is that is a grandmother and apple pie statement. Let’s let’s agree that somewhere in the universe that is an objective we need to chase. But unfortunately that is not what we need to respond to. We have to respond to a world in which there are three fundamental Chinese propositions on the table. Like you have a like you have the Washington propositions, you also have the Chinese proposition. What are the Chinese propositions? That uh there is a hierarchy and we have to work in a hierarchical Asia. So u multipolarity in the world uniolarity in Asia and we have an hierarchical Asia right we have a subordinate relationship and how do we respond to that that Chinese proposition? That’s number one. Uh number two, the Chinese are now using the American method of outsourcing Chinese capacities. So today, even when you deal with Vietnam and Thailand and many other countries in your neighborhood, you’re actually dealing with the Chinese. The Chinese have outsourced their capabilities and capacities and technologies uh and are now operating in a far more complex uh economic landscape. Sophisticated sophisticated economic landscape which means that the inevitability of them being part of your supply chain is now nearly certain. There is a inevitability that you cannot ignore China anymore. So China is in your life. So there’s a hierarchical China where you’re a subordinate. There is a omnipresent China where where where they are in your life whether you like it or not either through your cameras or your cars or your phones or whatever else right they are in your life. And third, you have an opaque China that irrespective of such an overwhelming presence. You cannot protest outside the house of Xi Jinping. I can stand outside the Capitol Hill and and abuse Donald Trump. I can go on CNN and challenge him. I can petition the Congress members and ask them to raise a human cry against a particular you know political or policy legislation. So we have a hierarchical China, we have a omnipresent China, we have an opaque China. Deal with it. Now this is the Indian foreign policy challenge. No, but then what does that say about the India China US triangle? What triangle? There was the Let me tell you this. Both India and China individually have a stronger relationship with the US than they have with each other. Is that good or bad? Look, China having a good relationship with the Americans is good for China. No, [laughter] it’s good for China. In fact, they not only have a good relationship with America, they have a perverse relationship with America. China, America’s greatest adversary has been made in America. Correct. Right. So in in so it is good for China. Is it good for us? It is not good for us because the Chinese are enimical to our growth. If the Chinese were participants in our growth, it would be a different equation. But the Chinese since the Chinese want to deny you space to grow that is enimical to us right now. Uh the other challenge today that arises is that today even America is enimical to your growth. The the the current statement of the American president you know of Chris Lando you who you were citing what is it that we are not going to allow India to grow the way the Chinese did. So now we have China that has traditionally been averse to our growth and more recently America that has aversed to our growth. Right? So when a G2 comes into play like the one that Trump is is is proposing and by the way on that G2 I have my own take. Trump doesn’t realize that G2 means he’s two. China doesn’t play for two. China plays so one in any G2 China will be one and America will be two. uh if if that G2 comes into place uh our space will be constrained and I think that’s a that’s a very significant uh geoeconomic security question. Someone told me that China some of the observers has yet to decide and it’s still thinking in its mind what actually would suit them in the long term. uh a G2, a multi-polar multipolarity or a condominium. They seem to be, you know, hedging on all these formations. Not quite sure what may actually benefit them. Would a G2 actually benefit them or will a multipolar world benefit them? No, but why do we have to have a doubt on what they want to do? I think the Chinese have exhibited what they want to do very clearly. Yeah, they want to dominate. So why should we have doubts? We should measure China. Look, I am sick and tired of people saying that do you know the do you know Mandarin? If you know Mandarin then you should assess the Chinese. No, I don’t have to know Mandarin. I have to only see their actions. If those if they want to if they want to hurt me they are folks who are going to be assessed in that particular way. So I think I don’t have to go into these philosophical question on what China wants to do. What is China doing? Correct. I think that is a question we need to respond to. And what China is doing is exactly what I told you that it is creating an hierarchy in its neighborhood. It is creating dependencies through that omnipresence and it is creating opacity through nonacountability. China is not accountable to anyone. Yeah. Now listen but again the flip side to this and I think the Indian policy side since you ask what do we do? We have to somehow find it within us in our in our foreign policy in our strategic thinking to be able to do three important three important tasks. The first task for me is to take a leaf out of the Chinese book in the late 200s in 20078 and what they did between then and 2015 is to build military muscularity. They have to create the Chinese equivalent of a deterrence and denial arrangement that they did with the Americans. Make it costly for the Chinese. And you only need to do one sixth or seventh of the budget to make it costly for anyone who wants to be adventurous with you. Uh if you remember in the turn of the century, Americans used to go through the South China Sea as it was a pond. Today, everyone announces weeks in advance or months in advance before they go through it because it is costly and dangerous uh to appear unannounced. So you know the Chinese made it really difficult area denial and and deterrence is something we need to invest in. So that’s the first task. Build military and political muscles. Number two build economic muscles. And I think we have not been able to do that. We have been lazy. Uh if you I mean and this is a simple test for everyone. Let’s look at the 20 goods or components or materials that we used to import from China. 20 largest imports from China five years ago. Are they still in that list? Yeah, I suspect they are. We have continued to depend in for example pharmaceuticals or electronics or solar or many other aspects on Chinese demands. We have not built our economic muscles. China should compete for the Indian market. They should not have a monopoly or rather a monoxy in terms of the supplies they give us. Right? both in terms of buying from us and in terms of selling from us. I think that because of our size even buyers we going to find in the future even if China starts buying from us we might create a perverse dependency in the other direction. So we have to be careful that we have a diversification right uh and that’s the second task we have to build economic muscles and third we have to actually very significantly invest in China’s neighborhood we have to learn from them yeah our next $5 trillion of growth should result in us becoming at least the second if not the first most important trading partner for at least 50 countries China from 4 trillion to 10 trillion was able to move 70 to 80 countries as its number one trading partner Now we should try to do at least half of those. Let’s build out countries. Let’s target countries. Let’s focus on them and let’s create a a region where where where we are important our so our growth becomes their investment. One of the countries uh in this jigsaw is Russia. How does it fit into this world? Very important. How does it fit into this Indian world? No, I mean our world. Our world. Look for our world in 2024 December I wrote an article that 2020 and everyone thought what the hell why did he write this article in 2024 December I was writing my year ender piece for Indian express and I said 2025 is the year of Russia you know I had said this and for more reasons it became for the energy and you know the discounts and then the American push back it all became the year of Russia but look for me um recently I I I suggested to a Russian friend and by the way you and I are both going to be in Moscow tomorrow a day after right so one of my friends in Moscow I suggested to them that you know let’s sign some sort of a strategic agreement that binds us to be each other’s best second best friends [laughter] you know we should somehow sign an agreement that you and I will always have each other’s back so that even if we go in different directions we can negotiate the best deals and by the way that is how it is working there There is no doubt in my mind that because I exist in the in Russia’s life, Russia is not surrendering to China. Russia gets a better uh uh outcome from its negotiations with China on a number of areas because I exist in their lives. And I am truly confident that because they exist in my life, I can seek the best deals elsewhere as well. So I think we should become each other’s best second best friend, second BFFs or whatever it’s called in modern lingo, I don’t know. But in strategic terms, we are the ones who hold each other’s back. And I think that is the importance of Russia in our life that that by the way the same surveys the youth surveys foreign policy surveys where America moved from 80 to below 60 or whatever the new number is Russia has consistently remained at 75 76 77 so Russia approval rating does not depend on America going up or going down. So you believe your survey. It’s a good survey. Authentic, rigorous. It’s a very rigorous survey. I won’t be producing it if I didn’t believe in [laughter] it. You know, and and and I have seen over four to five years now Russia maintaining that number. So others may come up and go down, but the Russian number remains solid. The the Russia friendship is somehow transcending generations. You know I was born in 71 but I know about the stories of 71 and I can be forgiven if I have a romantic leaning towards the Russians right but those who are born in this century and this is a survey of youth survey they’re all born literally turn of the century 20 year olds yeah 20 year olds 25 year olds right who are born in this century they have a Russia affinity which is remarkable I mean you should have seen Lavrov in in in Rina dialogue right the room was cheering for him even as the intelligence can say was jering. So you know you had you had a dysfunctional room. You had the European participants cheering and you had the Indian participants cheering and it was largely students and and young folks. Yeah. So good. I think we’ve done a we picked as much of your brains as we could in this short time. Let me uh you know you are part of a lot of these futures uh organizations global futures. uh you’re a member of the global risks advisories board and chair of the global future council in the world economic forum. What’s your it’s an easy question. How do you see the future for the next couple of years as far as uh what kind of a world we are entering? Look, what should we be prepared for? You should be prepared for I think um one reality that’s it that the board is being reset and in five years time there will be new winners. We should be one of those. It’s going to be a complete reset. Don’t be complacent. Don’t expect anyone to come and hold your hand and and lead you to some new level of of existence and growth. It is a do it yourself world. Be tough, be calm and be focused. We have one we have one big strength that we should continue to believe in and invest into. India is young and nearly every young Indian believes that tomorrow will be better than yesterday. M I think that momentum of of optimism is uh what will allow us to succeed in a reset board. A reset board is not bad for us. We always said that the incumbent should change. We always said power structure should change. A reset allows all of that to be reorganized. This is our time and we should grab it. So thank you very very much. on this very optimistic note in a very pessimistic scenario uh is even more valuable because [snorts] uh uh there are very few people who believe that tomorrow is going to be better than today uh but I’m glad to hear you say that and especially about India but thank you very much for coming wish you all the best um and do visit India more often I’m going to come back with you from Moscow ambassador s thank you for having me and all the best with that strat that is setting a new standards in think tanking. Thank you Samir. Thanks a lot. Thank you very much. So that is all we have today with uh Samir Saran, president of the I. I hope you enjoyed the conversation. We’ll come back with more of such conversations. Stay tuned. Thank you very much. Namaskar and goodbye. Thank you.