Elon Musk And Hilarious Market Stories Samir Arora And Dinshaw Irani Of Helios Capital

TITLE: Elon Musk and Hilarious Market Stories | Samir Arora and Dinshaw Irani of Helios Capital CHANNEL: Krish Kothari DATE: 2024-11-11 ---TRANSCRIPT--- and I heard a rumor about something that you all did many many years ago and I’m very interested to know if it’s true did things pan out the way you anticipated it was much better as nobody long term has to be a series of short terms like in the case of zamato when we bought there were no earnings but we knew that the potential was huge and what he was saying made a lot of sense I am right now betting on Elon Musk I don’t care what his car is doing I think it’s worth it to bet a little bit hero you think India will produce an Elon Musk no why is that I visited one Kolkata based company and they had recently done a gdr of $300 million gdr those times they were Global deposit so uh they had acquired one other company international company for 330 million pound they done a 300 million pound gdr right uh and I remember calling Samir afterwards because the management told so I said how does it make sense to buy this dead company for 330 billion million pound so me no no we didn’t pay 330 million we just paid 30 million what 300 million you no no no that way there’s another one this company went to zero what is it called Ed comp because what no he was not saying Jokers so the guy said you know we sell Hardware plus uh software or whatever the thing the package which goes for the education but they also sell you the computer and the projector in the class so I [Laughter] 15 okay okay thank you very much so now you know give don’t do anything you’re adding the two margins so so that was the thing that Min yeah I remember once I was I at a conference I met her I met the management of company it was me and one other analyst as in from some other fund and uh he I clearly he knew that guy very well cuz at the end he’s like he Wings he’s like boss L I walked I said never I wish I bought 30X after that we’re happy to partner with our friends at mofit to help you manage and track your Investments mofit is a technology platform that enables you to consolidate all your investments in one place across different asset classes and Brokers it provides clear visibility into your portfolio asset allocation and investment performance use the code Krish Kari 20 to get a great deal when you sign up for impr profit you can find the the link in the description below there are two features that I find particularly useful first is the xir feature to track true absolute and relative performance over time and second seeing how Investments across different family members and the family as a whole are performing we had Ark sha co-founder of mprofit on the podcast recently I highly recommend checking out that conversation to better understand how mofit can help you hi welcome to the chis Kari show my guests today are Samir Aurora and Dino Irani fos Capital we’re going to talk about the incredible Journeys both have had in the stock market and amazing stories from that time I hope you enjoy it as much as I did a lot of work goes into these videos so please do like subscribe and hit the Bell icon it really does help us also let us know in the comments what you think of our videos it helps us understand what topics are of interest to you you can now find us and many other interesting channels on the zeroa media Network Samir dinshaw thank you so much for coming on and in fact it’s actually the first time I can say thank you for coming back it’s fantastic having both of you the first guys to come back yeah first literally the first people to come on and I’m so happy to have both of you together and you know I was seeing you know previous interviews of both of you and sort of you can endlessly see the same broad questions coming towards you so I thought rather than talking about stocks and what do you think of the market today I wanted to actually hear more stories from both your careers and things that you have seen in the market I’m please make it as dramatic as you like happy to hear any of them but I I actually want to start using what’s happening in recent times as a context for a larger question so as much fun as as it is seeing your netw worth theod in front of your eyes over the last few days I’m trying to understand that in your experience when you’ve seen periods like this short or long what has been the best way to cope with it is it sometimes better to just close your eyes and go to sleep first of all there has been no erosion this time because 1 2% because the whole Market has fallen on 5 6% and at least I manage a long short fund which is actually up in this month so there’s no erosion erosion is what happened in 2008 when not only the market fell a lot but we believed that it should not fall and we fought the market for a long time like first 3 four five months saying India is not affected we don’t have exposure to any company which has exposure to Leman brothers or subprime and all that so that was a time when it was bad but uh for whatever Angle now I have stopped bothering about it affecting net worth because when it went up a lot in 2007 I did not change my life or think that that is my netw worth uh in the end when somebody at home says so the point is if you little bit only distant you don’t have to totally distant then this thing matters L but I think this also because over the years you lose this thing for example you know personally you invest in the beginning thousands of rupees or maybe 5 10,000 but for the fund you’re investing millions and then tens of millions and in 2007 maybe 100 million so the numbers also lose their uh meaning the only thing I remember is percentage not even the level per se right right and a year like 2008 teaches you that you got to go back to your Basics because I remember Sam telling us said you guys never told me we were the analyst for him right you guys never told me to sell we said how can we tell you to sell because the fundamentals are pretty strong so what do we do so we used should go back there and work on that so but over time it’s very difficult and one thing you learn in it is that it’s not only fundamentals that if the world is bad then beyond a point it is not enough to say that we are not bad because the if the world comes down it’ll pull you down because of Association has a market you might be Indian market they are that market but in the end they’re all Financial market and flows are there that’s when I used to collect Bulls before now recently I haven’t bought any many but generally I have collect bulls and bears pray to all the gods no not that way because when I was collecting Bulls I you know you yourself become very bullish but I I have maybe 30 40 Bulls but now I have seven eight Bears also previously I would would think how can I own a bear or why can I buy a bear why should I spend money to buy like a Dom bear or a soski bear or something how I buy so it’s it’s interesting hearing about sort of going back and past and I heard a rumor about something that you all did many many years ago and I’m very interested to know if it’s true is it true that at one point you and of course when they say you I mean the fund owned 10% of Trent yeah we used to 9% of Trent or something yeah near 10 yeah this was in Alliance days Dina was also with me in Alliance correct correct so we used to meet the current chairman of uh Tata trust the new chairman and so so tell me so going back this was what year was this rough this would have been 2001 to three then three we left a land right so tell me going back 20 years did you at that time when you were thinking about the the company and the business and now when you look at it 20 years later did things pan out the way you anticipated it would much better I so so so the whole thing was that I used to cover retail retail in Korea and stuff like eming Asia basically that’s what the Mandate was in Alliance and then we saw the strength and pantalon actually we used us 5% of pantalon Panton and Panton very well during our and for this 5% pantalon we spent $ 1.5 million yeah so so we we used to always tell Sam the look pretty retail is doing very well there it’s emerging Asia so why shouldn’t be doing well out here and obviously these guys are brand owners they their own private labels which are not the C there right so that is what ex I remember one angle that in those days there was this Korean company Shin so Shin was valued at $2 billion and they had 60 stores okay so we said okay M mati each store is being valued at $30 million and Company not not Trent pantalon right pantalon was being valued at $30 million whole company okay I don’t forget how many stores so Trent what was the valuation I forget but maybe it was $150 million but we used to go to West Side and say 9% and we used to meet Mr Noel Tata at that time he was really a simple guy come with pens in his pocket and tell us that their strategy is that for 500 rupees you should get two items that was his daughter had told him that you she can not she can that but bottom line is that 500 you should get two items yeah so it was value oriented this that anyway after that we left Alliance and the fund was sold to berla H so we don’t know what they did with it whether they ran with it or not but if they had kept it today then of course but those probably not talking about this idea that you buy a company and sometimes the optionality are even you yourself doesn’t know correct exactly exactly it’s like Roger fedra when he first picked up didn’t know he’d be Roger fedra right so so what I want to understand I think he knew his Roger he know he didn’t know he he didn’t know we know he but we’ll ever know yeah so so so really my question is that both for companies and individual promoters or CEOs or whatever at what stage can you finally say this really is a star this there is something out of the ordinary about this company or this person never say yeah as by the way for us that’s our philosophy by the way that a long term has to be a series of short terms so even when you meet a man and you ask them about say current year or current quarter they’ll know exactly what they’re doing but the moment you go beyond that 2 three years and four years they’ll be guessing all the way around now I am an outsider that guy’s an Insider and still he’s making a guess so you can imagine how wrong I can go but why should we make that view that you are a long-term hero why because it’s a liquid Market we are not selling if you are doing well we are very happy but if you’re not doing well at that time we can evaluate and we’ll be wrong that we think you are still good and the stock is still good and it doesn’t do well but why should we say today that you are a star for Life how I what what will I do extra because when you are when these companies are getting their results every quarter we are still going to analyze them if they have some regulatory issue we are still going to say yes or no if they get raided if they get indicted something happen what is my plus point in saying ahead of time that you are a star for life no need and so let’s talk about actually individual people running companies right that in hindsight we always say oh what a great decision or a great uh promoter CEO whatever without taking names and getting into who you know people that you may have necessarily thought of in that sense can you tell me either anecdotes or stories from your experiences when interacting with such people where something in your conversation or in your study of that person LED you to believe that maybe even if the business were not that great but this guy can make it happen has that ever been the case that the jockey was so good that you’re worth you’re willing to bet on an inferior or not inferior but a not so great horse I am right now betting only because I read the book on Elon Musk I don’t care what his car is doing I think it’s worth it to bet a little bit hero hero you think using India will produce an Elon Musk ever no why is that because that kind of risk taking we don’t have that he was about to go bankrupt and he’s still trying to make his sell I mean send his third rocket round up up or whatever no what I’m saying is there you genuinely saying doesn’t matter yeah it’s worth 1 2% of our portfolio but I can tell you other way around that when a company is doing well that promoter will tell you anything and you’ll say what a great thing so let me tell you HDFC Bank was doing well forever so when you meet know you have to meet you can read also adity Puri would say I leave at 5:00 p.m. I don’t carry a mobile and I have home so we say yeah great now there’s this guy Starbucks that Indian guy why has he been fired because he leaves office at 5:00 p.m. call because I don’t know what the call part whether he has a mobile what I mean every line you say so what I’m saying is there is no one this thing yeah but Elon Musk not because I met Elon Musk but because every because in India there are no books on these people and you will never know them so deeply want to that one is a different you know just but but has it has in your experience has it ever been that it’s very good to not know them at that level cuz sometimes it affects your own judgment always that’s always been the case so we what we realized earlier on in our careers was that once you get closer to a promoter you get biased and that’s why you you you always have a you know problem selling a stock you know something’s wrong but then you end up calling the guy and asking what went wrong I mean and he give you some explanation obviously not tell you that I made a mistake and my company’s in a mess so it’s better to stay away take a very stud call in 20 years I would not have had a meal with a promoter in the even alone ever and consciously done that yeah yeah Bally I don’t want I don’t react when somebody’s calling uh basically because wherever we have really lost big money is because we knew the promoter otherwise you said no need to ask sell it off I remember the first time I joined Alliance the first thing is that this is exactly what he told me that any promoter hugs you and greets you and tells you to come home for avoid don’t ever buy a stop because the thing is you will get influence by the fact that he’s your friend and then on a bad day he may also still believe it’s not that he’s telling a lie sometimes he might believe that my case will be okay my story will be okay but most of the time there is no need it’s obvious to you if you you to ask him you you don’t want to sell and we realize there’s no need to sell and move on man and the thing is these people get very excited here that the management has uh you know we owe it to the management in some sense that is only if you give me in a IPO in some anchor where you had a choice if I’m buying on the screen then I will sell on the screen I don’t need to and and has it has it required a lot of time to build that sort of clinical approach or is it something that inherently came to both of you I don’t to me it came in ’90s only so we used to have this company mayab we used to own 9 10% of the company and the company did very well it went up basically 100 times while I was holding it okay the name everybody knows but I’m not repeating it because everybody knows which 100 bager I talk about and then we were selling the stock and he said you are selling my stock not no you 100 times I said you know in these multi I was in Alliance in these multinational companies you know they hire so many analysts and all these analyst have rating and if they rate it too I can do nothing what to do with all these analysts finally keep saying so the point is and if you come to my office in Singapore you know I have all these ganes and a few other gods and on that which you can see on TV also I mean there are three letters nav you know people buy their own initials you get all these letters those big letters which you put on your table I have bought na that is my boss that is my God in addition to the god correct correct correct and so you know you said you talking about how owning something and riding it from X to 100x how how difficult is that I mean I’m sure 2x 4X 8X 16x at every time you must be thinking this is we need to get out and take Mone we trip every day literally because first of all we were in a mutual fund where the limit is only you can own 10% and this had become 10 within the first few per move only so literally for every day we sold but we still had 8 10% when it crashed 30 40% right right right so the last bit uh if somebody came 10 days before the crash which was basically March 2000 then he will say you’ve lost I say I made but that is the way this business works yeah but every stock we’ve had to sell or we sell like we made in baj finance 43 times but in the end our weight was still 4 5% only no otherwise you we start with 2 2 and a half% otherwise whatever the rest of the market may have done if it goes up 43 times it would have made it 10 12% of the fund we won’t let it go there because there are new guys coming in so that way we never make on the full portfolio the percentage that we talk about it is from the first purchase to the last sale because not in Z because it happened very fast but in some of these which happen over 10 years it’s not that I never bought it again of course a new money would come you’ll buy but I still say I made so much but actually I didn’t make so much like that because some you may have bought 6 months before you turned uh bearish right but we talking when we bought and never sold yeah and the last sale so that yeah but you also you at some sense some in some sense at the mercy of mechanics of running of fund regulations it’s okay that but by the way it’s not bad because if I had not sold along the way suddenly in the end it fell 40 30% in one month anyway that could not have been held enough a fun if have become so much right but what I’m saying is I don’t think there’s anything clearly wrong that I was not allowed to hold in the end many times I should not have held so much right and the system forced you to uh yeah sell it’s okay and that’s the way this works and and what have you all learned about selling cuz everyone it’s see the it’s very easy to conly talk about how to buy and which stocks are good and which stocks are bad but what have you learned about being as good at selling as you are at buying so that’s very disciplined in our case uh we always say that whenever the fundamentals are not keeping Pace with the price either the price has to correct or the fundamentals will move up right if that is not going to happen category one okay so basically uh suppose uh the earnings growth is in mid single digits yeah and the price growth is every year is like 25 30% all you can hold it for a year or two but beyond that you know that the earning growth is not picking up I mean if you if you realize that the earnings are not going to pick up there’s no way you can you can justify those expanded multip basically we don’t want for regular companies to make um I mean we want to make but we don’t to hold beyond that the money was made by higher and higher PE it should come from earnings that is why it has been easier to hold HDFC Bank CCH bank now we don’t own CCH but over 20 25 years because the earnings and the stock price movement would be similar some 20 25% okay because now but still we hold it but I’m saying that is easiest to hold what is difficult to hold in the well-known companies yeah is that earnings are growing 15% and the stock price first year grows 30 take part of life we are happy then again 30 it happened in so many of these consumer type companies that the earnings growth is 10 to 15% and stock price grow is 25 to 30% for 2 three years yeah yes there’s no choice but to take your money off theable we will sell means we will uh TR reduce basically that is the source for any new it doesn’t have to be sold in one clinical day also so any new idea you get this is your that that way you get yeah and main thing is that you do it 10 times you’ll be right eight times once or twice it will continue to do well let it do well what to do because you don’t know which place it won’t I mean in which one it will do well mostly they will not do well right and so um I actually kind of spoke about this with both of you in our previous uh conversations and and I I want to just talk about a little more so when you when you’re looking at a company so you look at conference calls you may meet them at a conference all of that how easy or difficult is it to not be swayed by someone who is a very good I mean I don’t say salesman cuz it sort of makes them sound worse than they are but someone who who I mean and and like you said they may believe it it’s not that they lying to you they themselves believe they’re going to grow 50% for the next 10 years so how I mean does it it obviously just boil on you starting the company or is there something more you can do to protect yourself from that so basically as we call it more Sizzle in the stake so just so you’ve got to as I said go back to basics yeah look at what he’s saying maybe that stories May pan out at some stage right but you got to do your working you got to go back to your work basically your worksheet and see okay this is what he said is it possible for him to do what he’s saying work those numbers out if they’re making sense to you then go buy because you’re talking about a future like in the case of zamato when we bought there were no earnings right but we knew that the potential was huge and what he was saying made a lot of sense and that’s when he got the story right so think is you may not get the 50% right but if it looks that it can grow at a high rate doesn’t matter if he say 50 and you believe 40 but mostly if somebody says with confidence it helps because he will have to then give you he won’t say I I won’t tell you he will give you his story also now so basically you’re have to create your story you are saying his story is makes sense or not it’s not that you have to give a counter story right so but I’m saying if somebody says it with confidence and if he’s a good salesman it is possible that we also buy into it because he will have some logic correct that make unless his logic is so off for us which is off for us if somebody talks about um so there are many we don’t believe by the way so there’re all this commodity type the soul guys if I can see that this sector does not exist in the world that nobody has made money don’t tell me for example when all these middle class and money what is it called premium guys so they started all these holiday home holiday time share you know which company then we got these gym companies okay there that whatever you remember the name Bombay Jima no all these you may say what you makes perfect sense young people will go to his gym family people will go to Holiday Resort but mostly we have not bought we don’t want the first time ever that has been bought in India or a regular business correct so those kind we have not bought where it made some but if the world has done it and it looks logical for example we totally believed in the food delivery so people said there is 20% premium 500 420 I’m giving 60 rupees what what do you get you don’t have to go out correct you don’t have to see parking you don’t have to see pollution you don’t have to see traffic jam and you can watch Netflix for 50 60 rupees going and because that you have to go and come back correct so you have to buy into the logic that this can be good growth here relative to somewhere else or whatever whatever and so you know cuz you cuz you mentioned zato so I’m I’m going back to when it was roughly 40 bucks and seemed like they could do nothing right right and then the whole blinket um you know event happened and I and I remember that time there was so many people questioning corporate governance ISS there was no corporate governance because we bought it at 52 there was no corporate governance the story they made was that the head of personnel or co-founder her husband is the owner corre me so why will Mr goyel who not the husband or the wife will say doesn’t matter just because my colleague or co-founder’s husband is there let me give him a premium logic B but their logic was the same that the store the kirana sorry they say we are not competing with k no no we are not competing but generally the competitor is open 10 hours a day you are open 20 hours a day so for outside the 10 hours so there is no competition correct second thing is the break evens are very low in the sense that normally these guys make the the retailer guy makes 14 15% gross margin to give delivery when it was free right but at some point you will order more and more and that was the big picture logic that you are not really subsidizing anybody maybe you are in the beginning but normally you are not even a 3 400 rupe order you are okay and then you getting bul buying then once in a while which they haven’t done but the others are doing you can stop private label you can sell the switches and like Amazon basic equalent so all these random things you can uh sell you are not not on the ground floor you are on some fifth floor of some dark building so uh I thought it was very obvious and are you are you at all surprised by the scale of success quick com I’m not talking specifically on blinket quick every stock that we have owned and which has worked we have been surprised by their this thing because suddenly these things pick up not only this you know we had this Von beverage now why you not why we made 10 times from 19 the stock actually is up 25 times from its IPO yeah 16 17 I think no no no as in was in 17 or something and it’s up 25 but we bought it in 19 right suddenly why is it growing who the hell knows but it was good when you bought it all the things which work well by definition uh the move up will be fast in the beginning and then you don’t want too many of these HDFC b ty five years we are paying for our bullishness but but but but that that’s a funny thing right like I’m I’m trying to think in in I mean so I just to clarify everybody all three of us are involved in HDFC Bank in some way so everyone’s whether they like it or not they they’ve sort of hung on to this but when you see something like this right something that has done so well for so many years is it possible like I mean unless you genuinely have a crystal ball in front of you how do you get like I’m saying going back in 2019 19 how could anybody sell HDFC bank at that point I’m saying you’re a large mutual fund or a large PMS or something and I’m not talking about a small Cap Fund or something I’m saying you’re a typical large midcap guy unless you just took a big call on financials it’s tough to get out that 19 there was no need to get out no no I’m just saying the BET has become when the HDFC before that was doing okay so the HDFC merger whether it is immediately synergistic and this and that versus that this consolidation will take so long and you don’t know that the market will be unwilling to treat the two businesses separately but say mer the margin has come down actually margin whatever it was is the margin but you see it now in a combined form so that how would you guess but somebody may have done it also we didn’t if you’re a banker they should now a banker should go to them and suggest a spin-off of HDFC or a IPO exactly but but so so in fact then we had spoken about this the IPO Market when um and we I I asked you are people set to learn this relearn mistakes from the past and do you do you see so it’s very easy to criticize the market in some ways and say valuations are crazy and all that but do you think this Spate of IPOs was to an extent required to absorb some of the liquidity that was in the market no it’s so so basically I remember talking about this saying that of the 10 I mean of 10 IPOs probably there’s only one which makes sense to us the rest nine are coming because there’s an opportunity in the market to raise money so that’s how it was and frankly I mean liquidity because of the liquidity these IPOs are coming if the liquidity dries up you won’t see any of these guys come to the market so it’s the other way around right you know so one of these guys has written a report as to how uh so many private Equity so many IPOs have to come so whatever billions of dollars so how will the market handle can it handle 40 billion number right why there so much analysis if the market does not do well none of these guys will be allowed right they are only dreaming of iping because the market is doing well which means if the market fell 20% they will also Reduce by 20% they are not the ones being an overhang they are taking advantage if we are do if we do well correct so it’s not independent this Supply is coming now can you handle it or not no if he can’t handle it you’re not coming the private Equity guy will postpone is planned by 2 years the listed guy will postpone by four years or whatever so these things don’t matter it’s what is right because Market is going up and IPO is coming correct and you know on this question of liquidity everyone like whatever forget what the numbers X cross x billion whatever is in the market so how can it ever fall all of that but one thing I mean at a very fundamental level if suppose let’s say argument say there’s $100 on the side if tomorrow morning 100 comes in by definition there’ll still be 100 on the side right CU you have the stock I have the money now I buy it from you you have the money I have the St I mean buing the taxes and all that ta the buyer the seller was a foreigner who’s taken out the money and bought some other market so therefore it’s not available when you correct because now he’s involved in some other they yeah if fi I guess yeah but there a game between that’s where the private parties I mean private placements and all these the P guys coming and the promoter selling that promoter rest of the money is going if if they sell yeah but do you think I mean again just this is very contextual to where we are today but you think people who’ve sold and and I mean I’m saying fi or whoever will have to pay a much higher price to come back in I think I don’t want much higher but 100% they will come back because this month this you know1 billion of selling in a month because they are going to China I don’t think they’re going to China because China has higher value of selling this month than India some 15 billion maybe it is to do with election trade that if Trump wins and there’ll be tariffs not on India as much directly first but on China and therefore China they’re redeeming but then Mr Trump has also said that India is a good place to put tariffs on and all that my bet is that they may that he talks for bargaining as a starting point but now need not put all these tariffs across the board everywhere who knows right right I want to actually get again like I said initially I want to get some stories and you know things that you guys have experienced can you think of any incidents that for some reason particularly stick out in your mind over the years either because you know the person was incredible or the you saw something like how is this allowed how is this happening in front of our eyes but no one is doing something about it or I mean it’s a very very open-ended question so therefore if you need a minute to think about it but if there’s any any particular incident it could have been a you know some anecd incident that particularly sticks out in your mind we’ve had all kinds of episodes and that is when you were together from making 100 bager to stores going to zero so I’ll tell you the zero one so I bought a million dollars of abcl you know what is the full form of abcl amitab bachan amitab bachan Corporation limited so it was unlisted and kotek was the banker and the story was that they’ll make all these movies I think they started 18 movies at the same time on the floor and uh they got the rights for Miss Universe Miss World in Bangalore okay so we bought a million dollars worth and then uh there were some security issues and they had to pay for security police chce and all in Bangalore and those 18 movies didn’t get completed and so it went to zero but after that I don’t know when it happened that they suddenly said that KBC money is supposed to go into the company oh but by that time I had left Alliance but I think it was the I never came back and so when you sorry please I have one where I visited one Kolkata based company and they had recently done a gdr of $300 million gdr those time were G Global deposit so uh they had acquired one other company international company for 330 million they done a 300 million pound gdr right uh and I remember calling Samir afterwards because because the management told so I said how does it make sense to buy this dead company for 330 billion million pound so me no no we didn’t pay 330 million we just paid 30 million what yeah 300 million you pay better no no no that there’s another one this company went to zero what is it called Ed comp because what he not Jokers so the guy said you know we sell Hardware plus software or whatever the thing the package which goes for the education but they also sell you the computer and the projector in the class so I [Laughter] 15% okay okay thank you very much so now you know don’t know anything you’re adding the two margins so so that was the thing that Min yeah no I I I don’t doubt it at all I don’t doubt it at all in fact I I have like I remember once I was at a conference I met a I met the management of company it was me and one other analyst as in from some other fund and uh he I clearly he knew that guy very well cuz at the end he’s like he wins he’s like boss Le I walked I said never I wish I bought 30X after this so so I I wish in hindsight I should have I should have I should have not not yeah I should have forgone my principles you got upset that he was not winking at me wik at me no it’s it’s incredible but no but it’s it’s it’s fascinating hearing these examples and and I actually want to talk more on the kind of cases that you spoke of where it’s it’s one of those things where people just they they see themselves as you know it’s like their Kingdom that they can do what they want with it you know it’s it’s not it’s my money it’s not yours um but so so are there have there been can you think of other cases where you looked at all the data as in the publicly available data said boss looks damn good and then you happen to meet someone and said just because of this fellow I’m not going to this fellow meaning the management or promoter or whatever has that ever happened I not understood means everything you look at the balance sheet F cash the individual but there’s something when you meet him there’s something in your Intuition or something that he has said or done that has pushed you in the other direction all the time so we are there are some current hot companies also which have gone up quite a bit M but because we know the hist not that they met us right but we know and the world also knows that these promoters nobody would give money but when the stock price goes up people give so that is our only control because we have this model that or belief that 150 companies do very well so therefore if a company is doing very well but we know we don’t have to be involved because according to there 149 other even if you do well in the market because that is just about performance in the stock that there are 148 others which will do well so I can afford to leave it that we have left all our life I mean in recent life means 15 20 years because the guy who buys it by the way also will agree with me that this fellow is a fraud but he will say or he will say there’s a turnaround in the sector or there is some other company in the sector which has done very well and this guy is at a big discount so their logic is a tradeoff between these different factors correct but purely on management by the way purly on whichever Factor we reject it is never the case that only we believe it if we say say that we are not buying this company because it is expensive there’s not a single guy in the country will say who will say it is not expensive because going number expensive but he will say it’s good management no it doesn’t matter if the valuation is high we it doesn’t matter to us that the management is good then when we say the management is chore they will also know is chore but they’ll say what I’m saying is it is not that our analysis is such that on the analysis is if that for example I keep saying to everybody that auto sector is getting disrupted but the guy who buys it will say so the numbers for next month or maybe three months or maybe that the disruption is there but it will happen after one year M but nobody will say to any of our factors that from where have you got this correct but he might say it doesn’t matter or that there is a counter Factor correct and we because we’ve understood this one line 150 companies do so well that if we say this factor is bad and you throw it and therefore you throw out 20 30 companies extra which end up doing well CU first of all you believe they won’t do well corre but if they do well good luck that’s the that’s the game yeah okay thank you very much so theno um last time when you were on I asked you about your entire you your entire journey and fascinating journey I honestly had no idea that you had such a such an unusual route to get where you are today and I want to take you back again to those earlier days um do you have specific Recollections of events that happened relatively early on in your career that still today when you think about them you laugh or maybe even cry no I remember my first memory about stock markets I mean the exchange as such Stock Exchange gig boas so I was a journalist then and just then the reforms that started and there was this huge run in the market right there was t as they call it every day and uh those times there was only outcry system open outcry the trading floor used to be on the second or third floor of gig B it was open balcony actually where they used to stand and uh shout out trats and stuff like that it was that symbol yeah yeah they had these pillars with numbers which was your corners for various talks right so I remember walking the The Exchange used to open at 12 and shut at 2:00 it was very aggressive shouting was the so it was only a 2hour exchange so I remember walking down around noon time on g under J uh Dalal Street actually and it became noon and that was my first experience of what a market which is in a bull phase looks like right suddenly there was this huge Roar with just just started going higher and higher and higher in desable levels right and it was so huge that I have to duck I thought what happened I I was was wondering whether there’s a riot which is started in this part of the Mumbai or something and I was looking around at people that why AR they reacting they were like normal and then there I spotted this sandwich W the the the G was always lined up with these sandwich Wallas right so I looked at him and he’s looking at me and say so that’s another way of deciphering whether the market is on a bull run or a bear run so is the ultimate indicator right it’s actually it’s like those movie scenes where you see the heroes walking by the start of the movie and the T fantastic fantastic and and actually some in some ways that world is lost right now cuz everyone’s all over the world and you don’t yeah you don’t it’s a no more he people cry shouting out and all just sit on a terminal look at exactly there’s a guy sitting in Hong Kong somewhere pressing some buttons he’s like U but you know so so we again we were talking about even when Samir was with us and I I don’t know why but I’m very interested I’m more interested in stories where things didn’t work out and people did got away with or attempted to get away with things they shouldn’t never have attempted to get away with can you have there been um incidents that you can recall whether it happened to you or maybe you heard about them where somebody saw like you were somebody saw something that was in many ways contrary to what a lot of people were talking about and so for example you were very bullish on something everyone else was bearish on or vice versa and in that situation what it is that proded you to go with your own conviction rather than worrying about what anyone else was thinking of okay uh yeah okay I I can think of one uh so basically this was during the it boom times right everything sold okay 2000 I’m talking about early 2000s right uh and everything which was had an it or a angle to TMT or something right Telecom media and uh uh I’ll tell uh Telecom media and what was the other t uh I don’t remember now we edit this I did I guess te technolog media technology media and Telecom yeah TMT was technology media and Telecom anything with that used to sell right so one um forign broker came and told me that there’s this company which I know of they got this huge order uh Disney order and um uh they got this $200 million I don’t remember the exact am like hundreds of millions of dollar of order for animation from Disney I said wow man this is the first time I heard of it I said let’s let’s go and visit the company he said what you want to visit the company the price is this it just going to go up I said no no I want to visit the company and see what what exactly is he doing I mean to get that order from Disney because I’m sure Disney is a very quy conscious guy to give out media orders like this I mean so that way yeah animation orders rather so he said okay I’ll arrange for a visit and it was Hyderabad based company so couple of weeks later we go to that company and by the way by then the stock was up some 20 30% and he says see I told you you missing out a big run on this and all that so I said no no problem we’ll go and Vis so we went there uh so he took me to this building which is a baron building uh newly constructed right and exagger was actually newly constructed just a shell just a shell types they were windows so I go in and I see these people lining the building itself and uh I mean crazy dressed like Lis and slippers and go whatnot and they were carrying some folders in their hands and stuff like that so I go in and I meet the promoter he’s in a room and he’s telling me first thing that he is telling me is you see these people lining up outside I say yeah he said these are all the animators and programmers who want whom I going to hire for executing the order Disney’s order I said what I was wondering I mean he doesn’t have a laptop in front of him computer inside he’s got these people outside who he’s going to hire now what did Disney seen this guy that he got this order huge order for animation of all the things which is a Hightech thing right and I go out and tell this guy I think it’s a you know all bull I don’t think there a story said no no you’re missing the point you’re missing the point and anyway the the stock went to zero after that so that way we never bought but so clearly but everybody else obviously was just bought the story right and and and literally the difference was you bothered going and checking going and checking that this is literally this is teros right this is literally the one guy who bothered testing whether it actually worked realized there’s nothing it’s just all nonsense unbelievable unbelievable and and have you I’m I’m trying to the correct way to frame this has have experiences like that affected in some ways affected how you view the market as a whole at a philosophical level has it in some way made you jaded or even at a very subconscious level maybe that you know I mean I feel like we’re doing all this as people making money and I mean you think about what they’re actually doing like they’re almost gambling and very often with other people’s money right right no actually it is so so the only thing that I had to do was go and meet that guy right I don’t know why others couldn’t do that they could have also done the same thing uh but I think I basically it goes back to my uh broken days when actually we were doing research so I I got a feeling that the buy side was BEC very complient that time I’m talking about because everything as I said with TMT and it used to sell right so I think they got very complient that any company who talks about and is having some contract from some foreign party is going to do well I think that was the conclusion which was made but probably I think we were a bit more diligent on that front I suppose so that helped and that actually is a it’s a it’s a lesson for life right I mean you to ultimately go there and understand what exactly they’re doing so before taking a call on the stock what so that yeah no that I know well put and I I don’t want to end on such a somber note so I will I will ask you for people Samir has a luxury of as in I’m saying when I say I mean the the fund has the luxury of having a long short but if you think of say the mutual fund or someone like me who’s only long right there’s no short side why do you remain confident of the future of India I I’m not talking about any individual stock and this stock is good and that stock is bad but what do you like when you look look in the mirror at at at night what do you see yourself to say that don’t lose hope so okay no there’s no I’m being Dr so so uh look at it this way India last 25 years okay the market I’m talking about the large cap index which is nifty50 has sorry 9 500 also Nifty 500 has grown at around 15 16% 25 years okay INR terms yeah now earlier and by the way I don’t think it’s going to do any different in the future because our our nominal growth rate GDP growth rate is going to be around 10 and half 11% if if you’re talking about being the third largest economy in whatever time period that we talking about it has to grow at 10 and half 11% right if that happens which is similar to what happened in the past I don’t think the the earnings growth would be different from 15 16% now the thing was that You’ say okay so what’s so different of the next 5 years because they’re going to grow that the fact is that we were not the fifth largest economy then right we weren’t so huge in size that the world would look up and say look there’s this economy which is now $5 trillion and it’s growing at 15% right that is what is exciting about us then the world has to come to you there’s no way already you’re 4 trillion right now give or take right if you’re going to grow at 14 15% and tell me which economy at that size grows at that level no way I don’t think any investor wors is based outside would ignore India anymore so that is what excites us and obviously the domestic money has been fairly buyant I think and frankly according to us the wealth effect has yet not kicked in once that kicks in you’ll see a bulk of the investors taking more risk because as you become wealthier you tend to take higher risk and obviously Equity is risky asset so you’ll tend to come to equity as such so that’s what is the exciting part about our markets going forward you can hate us you can love us but you can’t ignore us right well uh Dina thank you so much for coming it was fantastic having you on again and and and and and I hope you’ll when I invite you back you’ll come again for the third time sure will sure will thank you so much and thank you for sharing your stories I I think this is more than I hoped for both from you and Samir it was fantastic hearing about them and and and off camera I’ll ask you for the names but thank you again for coming on thank you for having me on your show thank you