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Dave Ricks Ceo Of Eli Lilly How A 150 Year Old Company Keeps Winning

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TITLE: Dave Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly: How a 150 Year Old Company Keeps Winning CHANNEL: inSpired Podcast URL: https://youtu.be/aN-GJTt1y8k DATE:

---TRANSCRIPT--- I like to win a lot, and I don’t find a lot  of satisfaction in coming in second. Over the   last decade, Dave Ricks led Lilly to become  the most valuable health care company in the   world. Is 100 million patients possible? Today,  we have probably 20 million people in the world   probably going to like 30 this year. We’re just  like scratching the surface on the volume side.   I think we’re seeing growth acceleration with  price cuts. So that that can be a very big number.   Conversations with executives building  tomorrow’s great companies. For investors,   by an investor. I actually like investor  interactions because I think the questions   either teach you what the Street is talking about  that makes no sense, which is frequent. Yeah. Or   like really good questions where you’re like,  you know what? We need to be sharper on that.   Very few companies have stood the test of time  like Eli Lilly. It is the epitome of durable.   Which one of these later stage assets you think  will be the biggest opportunity for Lilly. There’s   a lot of buzz on retatrutide and I think there  should be. I think that could be a very big   drug. I like eloralintide, you get almost 20%  weight loss and almost no GI side effects. That   could be a big product. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know,  offer choice basically and if it says Lilly on it,   we’re good. I’m Mike Rockefeller, Co-Chief  Investment Officer of Woodline Partners,   and this is inSpired.

It’s great to be   here. It’s your 150 year anniversary. That is just  remarkable. Eli Lilly is definitely the epitome of   durable. Yeah. As we think about it, what do you  think it is about Lilly? How has the company been   able to not just survive, but thrive for this  many years? Yeah, it’s a good and important   question, actually.
\  And I think, of course, there’s no straight  line. You know, maybe like investing, you know,   but if there’s a couple through-points that have  been pretty constant. And then I think the other   thing is the adaptability. But then what are those  through-points? I think we’ve always had a very   strong scientific orientation.
\  The company was founded on that idea.  Colonel Eli Lilly was, he was purpose driven   and he saw in the Civil War, he was a colonel  there, you know how most medicines were, like,   made up. You know, like there was no evidence.  There was no quality. So he wanted to fix those   problems and be based on science. His first hire  was a chemist. Like, not in the small c, but like   a real trained chemist to make medicines that  actually do what they say. And that’s, I think a,   that’s a through-line for us. We’ve invested in  science probably more than most cumulatively over   the years and that’s not going to change going  forward. I think the second thing is like the\  type of employer we are like, I think we tend to  keep people a long time and in a business with   pretty long cycles, I think that’s an undervalued  trait. To actually see a full, you know,   cycle of a medicine, see failure and learn from it  and iterate and improve. That’s the core, I think,   to success. Most things don’t work the first  time and if you’re just chasing the next wave,   I don’t think you actually really understand how  the business works. And then I think, you know,   leadership and long-term focus kind of go  together. We’92ve only had I think I’m the   12th CEO in the history of the company.
\  That’s one less than popes in that period of  time. And that gives a lot of continuity. And   it allows the company, I think, to think longer  term, which is critical in our sector, because,   you know, if you’re chasing trends or worried  about financial management as a primary outcome,   you’re kind of missing the point.
\  It’s an innovation business and sometimes you have  to weather out storms. We’ve certainly done that.   And like now things are going great, you’ve got  to have the humility to say that’s not going to   last forever. We’ll be a little bit paranoid  and think about the next decade. So those have   been consistent.
\  But then, you know, adapting to the times,  the science, to the methods, technologies,   like that’s important. And when we’ve been at  our best, we’ve done that well. And when we’ve   been down, we haven’t done that well. So yeah, I  think about those things. And you’re coming up on   your ten-year anniversary of CEO. Ten-year, yeah.  It’s been a great run. Yes. It’s been exciting. A   lot has changed. I was thinking about it the other  day because it was like July of ‘9116 I was named   in the job. And where was the company? And like,  where was the world that was like before the, you   know, the first Trump administration, you know,  like a lot of things were different. Yeah. But   you know, the, company was in stable shape. We had  gone through a pretty rough time before I was on   the lead team during that with our patent expiries  and sort of dug deep and kind of refound our soul,   which was like organic R&D. And I think what  we’ve tried to do during my tenure is like, take   like good and go to great, you know, and that’s  about tuning up the science engine, being super   competitive with people, projects, thinking about  being at the edge of things versus a laggard,   speeding up R&D. Like, that’s a kind of an old  story for us now, but it’s still pretty sticky   and true. We can run the drill faster than any  scaled competitor and faster than most biotechs.\ 
China is a new vector we can talk about. They’re   quite fast, so that’s giving us more motivation  to go quickly. You know, turning like the teamwork   and like common good feeling in the company into  like competitive edge. That’s something I try to   focus on. And then, you know, external innovation  has been a theme as well. Like going outside,   making smart bets and allocating capital a little  more aggressively. Where are you now in terms of   R&D timelines versus industry? I think in 2013 or  ‘9114 we started a project, so it pre-dated my   time, this is when John was CEO, to cut the time  in half and at the time we were like 11 years in   clinic. That’s from IND to FDA approval on average  and the industry was like ten. The industry’s come   down to like eight, eight or nine and we’re  six and change. So we haven’t quite halved it,   but pretty substantial step up. And we do look  at like, is that stable across TAs, did you just   shift to faster moving things. Like if you just do  virology you can go faster. And the answer is no.   Actually we materially sped up our cardiometabolic  stuff, our oncology stuff as well. And I think   those have made the biggest differences. So you’re  now the largest health care company in the world.   And as we both know, a lot of that value is  in your incretin and obesity portfolio. Yeah.   There are a billion people in the world, globally  with obesity. I read a report recently that said   that there would be 4 billion people by 2035,  which is just a staggering number. Probably   doesn’t include Lilly obesity medicines. Right.  Right. That’s the placebo arm. Yeah. So. Exactly.   But just help us think about this from an investor  lens. How many patients realistically could be on   a Lilly product for obesity.
\  Yeah. That’s I mean it’s obviously a question  we don’t know the answer to. But you know,   we have some clues and I think some framing around  that. So first you know on the billion number it’s   likely to grow. I agree with that. I think what  drives overweight and obesity, its abundance of   food, and that’s a wealth effect.
\  But it is objectively true there’s a lot less  starvation in the world than in the past,   and there’s a lot more wealth even over the last  50 years. Both of those things have changed very   dramatically, and unfortunately, we evolved as  organisms. Our evolution is much slower than the   speed of the world and we evolved in a world of  scarcity. We don’t really have that many defenses   against abundant food to kind of keep us in  homeostasis. One of them is, you know, incretins   and GLP-1s. So that’s what we’ve harnessed,  and that’s why these have turned out to be,   I think, such good medicines. I think that the  tailwinds here are, you know, the technology   itself. So like our oral medicine, the ability to  produce at scale, safety data at scale. Of course,   price points is important. If we had a billion  people times the current prices in the US that   doesn’t really work for the world. So they’ll come  down. We should expect that. But penetration will,   I think, far exceed the price points. And then,  you know, the medicines will get better and more   customized to different things, whether it be  convenience things like oral or monthly, people   like to talk about that. Or what your weight is  to begin with and your probability of getting to a   healthy body weight or maybe indications, because  although there’s a big opening aperture on sort   of this preventative self-care kind of thing, and  we should come back to that because I think this   is really the first use case that’s really kind  of shown that. I think there are other use cases,   by the way. But, you know, a lot of people get to  medicine through the normal health care system,   which is like, I have a symptom and I see a  doctor, and then I am prescribed a medicine   to address that - and of course, incretins do  that too. And that list will expand to, you know,   inflammatory conditions, mental health. Other  things that will grow it. So I think, you know,   we should think of it approximating on the  one hand maybe some big consumer markets,   on another, maybe the biggest medicine  market. Look at those together and say,   okay, are they, is that close? One important  note which I always run into with investors is:   generalist investors always are like, well, what’s  the persistence? As if we’re going to get like the   billion people forever.
\  That’s not a reality, right? I think people  use medicine episodically, and that’s a normal   thing we model in other disease states. People  miss that. So there’s a question behind your   question is what’s like the prevalent number of  people taking the medicine versus the possible   and I think that’s the way to look at the TAM  here is there we’ll be drop outs and drop ins,   you know. Is 100 million patients possible? I  mean, you’re obviously building the company now   for the next ten years. You’ll have to plan. So  is that is that even a number that’s possible.   Yeah. Today we have probably 20 million people  in the world probably going to like 30 this year.   So that’s certainly achievable.
\  I think that in the developed markets, the kind of  theoretical use versus total is still in the low   single digits. So but if you look at something  like statins or beta blockers or ARBs and like   chronic disease, you’re getting into the 20s to  40s. So that’s a probably a high end to what we’ll   achieve but it’s against a bigger denominator.  So that that can be a very big number. Yeah. So   there’s a lot of focus on Zepbound and Mounjaro,  the key value drivers now, but you have a whole   wave of assets that are that are coming on  here: Orforglipron you mentioned, retatrutide,   eloralintide. Can you maybe just frame how you  see each one of those assets fitting into this   therapeutic paradigm? Yeah and maybe just to step  back, so 20 years ago, we launched the first GLP-1   exenatide Byetta. And you know, I think if you  asked us then like, okay, was this, like the   master plan? Of course it wasn’t. I think we had  two insights that kind of caused breakthrough.   One of them was the idea that you could give more  drugs. So here’s a natural pathway. There aren’t   too many things like that where if you just give  more, you get a beneficial effect without a lot of   detrimental effect. But this is one of them. And  we only could discover that when we got flat peak   to trough medicines, you could dose up because  there’s a tolerability for the side effects.   If we just kept dosing up exenatide people would  vomit more like they wouldn’t get the weight loss   effects. So you know, Trulicity and semaglutide  explored that. The second big one was that it’s   more than one receptor, that GLP-1 is important,  but there’s a super family here and they tend to   be synergistic and they also have different like  pharmacologic properties when you drug them. So   GIP of course plus GLP equals tirzepatide. GIP  actually tolerizes the GI effects and it has its   own independent weight loss effect not as potent  as GLP but does something. And so you get this,   you know increase in efficacy and actually  decreasing in side effects. That makes for   a great blockbuster. That’s what Zepbound and  Mounjaro is. But you know, amylin, which is   what eloralintide addresses, is another kind of  one of these super family that has been around   a while. Actually there was a marketed drug for  amylin sometime ago from a company called Amylin,   which is an interesting story. But, you know, it  wasn’t focused on weight loss and it certainly   didn’t, similar story to exenatide, it had peak  trough effects and other problems. Glucagon we’ve   known about for a while.
\  We have marketed glucagon for decades for, in  an acute sense, what about chronic dosing? Now   we can get a lot of weight loss when we add that.  And there’ll be others too. So I think this story   will keep playing out. I, we made that bet, you  know, in the middle part of the last decade,   right around when I started that this probably  isn’t like a Keytruda situation where people   hypothesized, oh, there’d be all these checkpoint  inhibitors for cancer. Turns out there’s like   maybe one other that works, right? CTLA-4 is okay,  but it was PD-1. Here it isn’t just GLP-1. And I   think that’s pretty clear at this point. That’s a  happy fact for us because a while back we started   building medicines against all these. And our  strategy was look, if that is the if that is   the hypothesis, we best cover every square and  we should use our skill in engineering the best   drug-like properties for these medicines to do  that. And I think we can now look at it and say,   okay, pretty much every one of these ideas that’s  working, we have a medicine for and with maybe one   exception, we have the first one.
\  So that’s that’s exciting. We’ll see how adding  those together, whether it be physically in one   medicine or kind of stacking them for different  effects, what that does. But I suspect there’ll be   a fair amount of appetite for them. One I wanted  to drill in on is retatrutide. Yeah. This is a   unique situation. Coming soon. Yeah. There is a  lot of buzz in Silicon Valley. In the Bay Area.   It’s the epicenter of off label retatrutide use.  It reminds me of the buzz around tirzepatide but   even more so and I wanted to just understand,  you know what is all the excitement about? What   is it about that profile, why people think this  will be such an important product? Well, more.\ 
I mean, if you, it’s a triple agonist and   I think people are, you know, kind of probably  mostly off-label ordering Chinese. So we don’t   recommend this, by the way. But, you know, you can  see in our studies people lose a profound amount   of weight really easily. In fact, the number  one dropout problem we have is people lost too   much weight. So they started obese. So I think  you can now see sort of the end of the efficacy   curve in a way like we probably don’t need drugs  that have more weight loss than this. If we have   dropouts for too much weight loss, we probably  need strategies to taper and tailor. The second   thing is like the third ingredient, it’s really  tirzepatide plus glucagon. Glucagon has a very   central obesity role. It really depletes fat  in the gut. And people like that. It’s actually   there’s a lot of data that visceral fat is kind  of the worst fat you can have, and that’s the   fat under your stomach wall. So that’s quite good  for health reasons. Liver, kidney, heart failure   probably is going to be a great medicine. But  also people like flat stomachs. And when they lose   weight they, you know, want to feel lean. That’s  what this does. I suspect that’s part of it,   too. This drug, though, is not for, you know,  unassisted self-care. Like, I think it’s got more   side effects that come with it. And probably low  doses are safer. But, you know, I would recommend   most people talk to their doctor.
\  And the good news is the phase three studies will  all be in hand within the next few months. We’ll   submit to the FDA, and maybe this time in a year  we’ll have that approved and then people can get   it, get the real thing, number one, and get it  under supervision, which would be a little safer.   So you’ve been positioning this as an over 35 BMI  type product. Seems like it. Yeah. Now there’s   theories about a category that doesn’t really  exist now, but people are sort of experimenting   with, which is the category of like, okay, either  my starting body weight is lower or it was higher,   but now it’s low and what do I do to kind of  keep that situation or, you know, have more   slower. So we’re thinking about low dose regimens  of different multi acting incretins. That’s one of   them. There’s also studies on clinicaltrials.gov  of tirzepatide plus eloralintide which is like a   triple agonist and without making a single kind  of chemical entity. That could be interesting   too. I think there will be needs for this in the  future. And while, Orforglipron is going to be a   great maintenance medicine, some people will want  different properties, and that’s what we can offer   here. Which one of these later stage assets do you  think will be the biggest opportunity for Lilly?   Well, there’s a lot of buzz on retatrutide and  I think there should be. I think that could be   a very big drug. But if you look at the injectable  space and I think, you know, Orforglipron is going   to be a big drug, not because of the efficacy but  because of reach. You know, it’s going to be less   expensive. We can market it to every corner of the  world. It’s pretty effective. You know, if people,   you know want to lose 30 pounds, that’s going  to be a great solution. And that’s most people   who want to lose weight. But you know, the  frontier of why did tirzepatide do so well   against semaglutide? So it’s an unusual situation  where there’s a first entrant, market leader,   tons of momentum, and then three years later  we wake up and, you know, we have a 70 share,   they have a 30 share. And probably if you  subtract out the payer stuff they did, it’d   be probably 80-20. Why? Well, because the drug  dominates that drug. We did a head-to-head. You   can look at the data. It’s both easier to take,  less side effects, and markedly more effective.   So I think if we can move both of those lines,  you’ll get better drugs and better selling drugs.   So retatrutide more effective, probably giving  up a little bit on tolerability because glucagon   has that property. I like eloralintide because  I think it approximates. I mean, the data we   showed is a little better than GLP-1 with amylin  and that’s interesting by itself. An important   note is eloralintide is not like the other amylins  which are kind of this, there’s a receptor in that   family that they all hit that also is shared with  another protein and that causes some GI that’s   the calcitonin receptor. We pushed that out. We  dialed that out. So you just get sort of like a   pure selective amylin inhibitor and you get almost  20% weight loss and almost no GI side effects.   That feels like a very appealing value proposition  and not a bunch of titration, because there’s you   don’t need to titrate into the side effects. That  can be a big product. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know,   the good news is we don’t have to care which  one gets really big. I think our focus is really   about, okay, get more choices out there. Deepen  the depth chart on indication use because still   medical use is a primary way into this market.  Build out our consumer capability because self   care and prevention is a real thing, and it seems  unlikely to have broad coverage in most markets   for a while, just because of the affordability  in health care. And people are animated to do it   anyway, so that’s fine. And then, you know, offer  choice basically. And if it says Lilly on it,   we’re good. Speaking of choice, some of your  competitors are developing a once monthly.   Some are trying to go longer. Where are you with  a once monthly. And how important is that to have?   I think our strategy is, you know, something on  every square. So we definitely have that idea.   Sometimes the standards are different, you  know? So like I get the question of like,   well, why didn’t you develop tirzepatide in  a SNAC formulation? That’s the technology   Novo uses for the Wegovy pill. And it’s because  for us, like the profile wasn’t good enough. I   think the convenience factors, if the oral is  really about convenience, then if you make it   inconvenient oral, what are we doing? So we took  a different strategy. That doesn’t mean we won’t   try that at some point for oral, but I think for  us that technology needed to improve a little bit.   Same for monthly. I think if we have yet to see a  day by day PK curve from any of these monthlies,   and I suspect there’s a reason, is they’92re not  monthly, that you can lose weight during a month,   but in effect, you’re sort of going two and a half  weeks, or your half life might be 10 or 12 days.   I mean, some have published the half-life. So,  you know, by the time you get to day 30 or down   to like 20% of the original dose, and then you  re-dose and you’re going to get a little more   weight loss, side effects again. And the key for  the weeklies semaglutide and dulaglutide was flat   like because then you can actually tolerize and  titrate if you’re reliving that curve every time,   I think you get more GI and then you’re  back to that efficacy tolerability curve,   you’re sacrificing some efficacy because you’re  not really effectively dosing therapeutically   the whole month. You’re restarting  tolerability every first of the month.\ 
So not ideal. So we’d like   a flatter profile that could last a month. That’s  it. You know we’ve got ideas similar to the ones   that you’ve seen. We just don’t choose to disclose  everything. And we’re working on other solutions   that would be flatter. You have to ask like okay,  you said longer like what are the benefits of like   spreading out dosing. And I think there is a  diminishing return anyway. Certainly monthly   is probably better than weekly. Is two months  better than one month? I mean, not really. If   you look at other markets, is three months better  than one, maybe marginally; six months better than   three? I think you’re starting to get where  the other properties will dominate that sort   of increment of convenience. One other area that  is really interesting is these areas outside of   obesity - immunology and brain health. Yeah. What  are you most excited about? Where can incretins   really play a really big role there? I think those  two are super fascinating. There’s a third which,   you know, it’s very hard to do studies on but I’ll  touch on. So you know, immunology is here now. We   published data actually this last weekend at the  dermatology conference of Taltz plus Zepbound. And   you know that effect size, which, by the way, you  get the ACR20 benefit on psoriatic arthritis, you   get the PASI 50 improvement way before the weight  loss. So and you can see this with like CRP which   dives within a week or so. So there is this like  other mechanism happening. It definitely is an   anti-inflammatory and it’s a pretty good one.  Look at retatrutide in OA pain that had more   than four point shift in this WOMAC score we  used to measure pain. That’s the biggest shift   ever recorded in OA pain. So these are really  good anti-inflammatories. I think that story is   going to continue to play out. What people haven’t  figured out is like branded inflammation drugs are   super expensive. So how do you value capture in  this space and what’s the right combinations? But   you know, that’ll get figured out. And hopefully  we’re the ones who figure that out. And then brain   health is even more fascinating. We don’t actually  know all the mechanisms as well. There’s theories   on like brain metabolism. Right. So that’s a real  thing. But, you know, you saw a couple big studies   from our competitor with the EVOKE program  in Alzheimer’s, and you did get movement in   biomarkers, but no change in outcomes. Was that  the wrong setting, the wrong time point in that   disease process, the wrong disease? We don’t know.  But, you know, there’s more risk here for sure,   is what I’d flag. But the promise of changing  dementia. We’re more bullish on vascular dementia,   which is more of a pure cardiovascular disease,  causes a lot of dementia, compounds other   dementias. You know, you look at kind of hedonic  behavior, things like smoking and drug abuse,   even gambling and online shopping. There’s these  like anecdotal reports. Those are all, you know,   opportunities to look here. And we’ve got some  studies going in these spaces already. Phase   two primarily. And then to me, the one that  would be what would really be a home run, not   just economically, but like moving human health  pretty dramatically forward are these NeuroSci   conditions. We have really no good explanation  for this. But when you look at large databases in   retrospect. You see big shifts, big. Like the VA  study was the biggest one. But in schizophrenia,   bipolar and major depressive disorder, very big  shifts in outcomes for people who happen to be   on GLP-1s and have these conditions. That’92s  worth noting and we better figure that out. So   we’re looking at that as well. Cancer is the one  just the teaser at the end. And it’s just hard   to study cancer prevention. But probably these  are not treatments but preventative. There’s   a lot of use in breast cancer already, mostly  because estrogen blockers cause weight gain.\ 
So it’s more like a symptom   management tool oncologists are using. But I’d be  personally surprised if we don’t wake up in five   years and see cancer surveillance rates dropping  in a number of cancer types because of uses. Now,   proving that and getting an indication that’s  a tough proposition. But the studies have been   done the other way where you look at, you know,  cohort match groups that have obesity and those   that don’t, and cancer rates are quite a bit  higher in obese populations, so that would be   great news as well.
\  Let’s talk about selling because this is getting  really interesting with Lilly Direct. Yeah. So   you launched this in January of 2024. Yeah. And  it is now a big part of your obesity business.   Yeah. It’s like a third of all obesity in the  United States is Lilly Direct. I’d love to just   understand where you see this going because it  seems, you know, really fascinating, a real shift   in how we are distributing. I think, you know,  this was one of these like perfect I guess what   in in the Bay Area you’d call a product-market  fit, right. That’s like which we a little bit   stumbled into. But we had some clues. You know,  I think though five years ago there weren’t many   large manufacturers talking about, like, selling  directly to consumers. In fact, like, funny story,   my predecessor, we had, like, a series of meetings  in this room. In that period before he left and I   officially started, but I was named and he’s like,  I have like a list of lessons and one of them was   like, never be in retail. He literally said  that to me. And it’s like, why? Well, because,   you know, you have all this like apparatus  you have to build to deal with the variety of   complaints and, you know, knowledge levels, etc.  but I disagree with that conclusion. Actually,   I think there’s been huge benefits for us.
\  So of course we’ve reached more people and  sold more. That’s great. That will continue   and will grow. We’ve launched, by the way,  in the UK. That’s off to a commanding start,   I’d say. We’ll introduce, I was just in  China here. You know China internet world   is different but we have a couple partners and  like a store within a store Lilly Direct like   on JD and Ali and pretty impressive start. So  you know, I think this is a universal thing.   It’s not just a US shopping phenomenon. And  we’ve gotten so much better at understanding   consumers because you have this first party  real time interactions. What are people buying?\ 
What are they complaining about? How do   we learn about how to use our medicines better?  Inform consumers? I think that’s so good for   the company’s competitiveness long term. I think  investors are intrigued by stickiness. If you have   that information, if you have a relationship with  someone one on one, do they stick around longer?\ 
Of course, that needs to be proven, but the theory   is there and it’s worked in other industries. And  then, you know, I think not being reliant on third   parties as health care kind of rearranges itself  has proven useful. At a minimum, having your own   channel creates price discipline, right? So you  don’t get excessive markups. You set a kind of a   benchmark price in the market that payers like  insurers can expect, but so can consumers.\ 
And it just sort of controls   that critical variable here. But also you have a  route to market and I think that’s strategically   pretty important. I think also on the consumer  side, discretion and sort of not my regular health   care system have not been a bug, but a feature.  Most people with obesity have doctor shopped to   get someone to help them.
\  So that means they’ve been told no or just, you  know, here’s a diet sheet. Why don’t you follow   the diet? You know, and they have followed the  diet and it doesn’t work. I think that’s the   consumer perception. So getting out of that is  actually a benefit. And then of course discretion   because people report stigma when they go to the  pharmacy counter and they’re waiting and then   their dispensed Zepbound and, you know, people  roll their eyes, they don’t like this. Right. And   that’s an unfortunate fact of our society, that  people view obesity often as a personal failing,   not a kind of a genetic predisposition and an  environmental situation we find ourselves in.   That’s wrong. But I think those factors drive  people to the platform. And that, again, those   aren’t just US factors we see, you know, really  sort of geometric growth in many markets online.   You have over 50% of your new prescriptions  for Zepbound going through this channel in the   US. Yeah. Where do you see this business going?  What percent of obesity scripts will go through   this channel? I think in the end state it’ll be  meaningful. I don’t know if it’ll be stable at   that rate. I’m hopeful, actually, that insurance  coverage in this sort of medical route will grow   more. And probably the consumer piece is going to  be, you’ll see more switching. It will act like   consumer products.
\  You’ll see loyalty, yes, but also trial and error.  You know, I think it’s going to be a little bit   different than what we’re used to in sort of like  a chronic med that sort of takes seven years to   get to peak. And then there’s lots of carryover.  We can value that. We understand that I think this   will be a little bit different, but not worse  different. Just different. I think we can also   drive early adoption in a very significant way  in this channel. And I suspect that’s a that’s   a global thing. In fact, there are some markets  where that medical chain is even more choked off,   more broken, and will probably have a higher  proportion online. I would expect outside the US,   you’ll see more business than in the US, in terms  of self-pay. And that’s a good diversification   thing for us. And it’s good for those consumers  who like, if they went to their doctor,   they wouldn’t get the medicine. They can  use telehealth, they can buy it online,   they can make decisions about their own health. I  do think I alluded to this earlier, that this is a   capability that can serve us well in the future.
\  I’m going to jump to this. But  like in my time in the industry,   in addition to like working on more preventative  interventions, which the industry is shifting   that way, the drug technology has improved a lot  to do it. So if you don’t have a doctor around   to monitor side effects and carefully titrate  doses, etc., it’s difficult to think about this,   but if you had therapies that were very  infrequent, that were really preventing disease,   and yet the person had no symptoms.
\  That’s like a perfect line up. And you think  about technologies like siRNA, which are like   so pristinely targeted and very infrequent and  often being developed for chronic diseases in   a preventative setting. That’s a great use case  for this as well. And if you have enough volume, I   mean, some of these, these new modalities, people  are always thinking about orphan or specialty.\ 
You know, I think the first big   medicines using RNA silencing were like you had  to inject into your spinal column for, you know,   very rare congenital conditions. But if you  think of something common like Lp(a) reduction,   which is like probably a third of all adults  on the planet. Are you really going to get a   high price point, even if you have only maybe  10% penetration. Is that the right model?\ 
Or should you   try to reach the vast majority of those and lower  the price points? COGS isn’t really an issue here,   and do it in a direct way, kind of outside of  the health system payment. And that seems like   a pretty viable idea to us. So we’re looking at  that in a serious way and building the capability   around obesity It’s sort of the perfect use case  now, but I think there’ll be other ones. What do   you need to do to add to this Lilly Direct program  to make this an even more valuable asset for the   company? Yeah, automation, globalization. You  know, right now it’s if you knew how we built   this thing, you’d be like, wow, that’s not  really how software companies like will go to   market e-commerce engines. It was very, you know,  duct tape, baling wire. And the first instance,   we’re sort of in version 2.0 now, it’s better.  It’s smoother. Like we have integrations into   e-prescribing systems across the country. And  it’s, you know, need like a lot of paper or   phone calls. We’ve auto renewal, which is like an  SMS message consumers get. They click like three   buttons and the box shows up in two days. So we’ve  really worked on that but it’s not Amazon. You   know, it’s not best in breed e-commerce, but it  can be. So we need to continue to invest in that   and we’ll get there. We’re making some moves this  year to kind of up that game. And then as I said,   you know, we sort of relearned this lesson when we  launched Mounjaro, which is the name for Zepbound.   We just had one name outside the US in all these  other markets like Brazil or, you know, Germany,   and they have their own telehealth environments  and those players aren’t as sophisticated or   organized. So we need to get in those markets  and kind of upgrade that and we’ll do that.   One topic of concern from investors is price  these GLPs and I think there’s a concern that   the prices will just keep falling and there’s  no floor. Yeah. What would you say to that.   Yeah I think there are competitive effects,  right, that’s for sure. I think there’s like   two potential bets we’re making and people can  bet against that. That’92s what investors do.\ 
One is that,   you know, we’re just like scratching the surface  on the volume side. And unlike other drug markets,   which you and I have valued, you don’t really have  elasticity in pricing. So price down equals cash   flow down 1 to 1. That is not what happens here.  Actually I think we’re seeing growth acceleration   with price cuts.
\  So that’s acting more like a consumer market.  Now is there a logical point where you should   not be doing that? Yes. We’re a pretty disciplined  actor I think we’ve studied this and we understand   consumer choices and preferences. But so far, I  think the move from like 1,000 a month to about   350, mostly positive for us. By the way, we were  already launching in diabetes at about that net   price anyway. So, you know, if you value the  if you look the gross to net appropriately,   it’s not really a price concession. It’s like a  volume expansion in the cash channel, which is   probably good. Can it go too low? Yes. But I think  what prevents that is innovation. On the one hand,   newer things typically get priced higher. If  you look at unit pricing in drugs, there’s   like a minus seven on every chronic drug for the  ten years I’ve been doing this job. But prices   on average are going up. Why? Because you have  innovation launching at premiums and then it gets   on that decay curve. So if we can keep innovating  eloralintide, retatrutide, Orforglipron and post   up higher starting points over the innovation,  that data has to be justified. I think you can   see a price, more of a price stable picture as  the mix grows and options are presented. Will   there be like a generic segment? Sure. That’s  going to happen to semaglutide first. We’ll   learn about that in some overseas markets in the  next couple of years and eventually in the US.\ 
And we’ll have to have enough difference   versus that to justify the price. Sure. That’s not  a new factor in our industry. What is new is that   elasticity and the rate of innovation. There’s  one other constraint which, you know, I think our   competitors should take note of, which is if you  have pipeline bets stacked against this, like you   don’t want price erosion, that’s not a great idea,  right? Because you have to compete with the thing   you just you just did. So, you know, we’ll see if  they’re paying attention to that. We pay attention   to that. The FDA recently came down pretty hard  on Hims for attempting to come out with an oral   version of Wegovy. Yeah. Where are we in the  battle between innovators, compounders, the FDA?   I don’t know, honestly, I’m honestly shocked this  has gone on this long. It really makes zero sense.   And of course, there’s an industry point  of view. Let’s put it on the table. Like,   yeah, it’s cannibalizing some of our business. Not  that much, actually. But if we look at, you know,   maybe there’s a couple hundred thousand people  on compound tirzepatide, maybe a few 10,000 on   retatrutide mostly in San Francisco. You know,  you know, that’s not changing our EPS number on a   quarter to quarter basis but it does open a policy  door that’s kind of frightening and frightening   for our business model, of course. Like if you  don’t have an incentive to invest in R&D, if   someone can just copy what you made without paying  a royalty, a license, or having to do the work   themselves, that’s not fair. Number one. Number  two, it’ll just destroy the incentive to invest   in innovation. I think that’s a terrible outcome  for our country and for the world, actually. But   even for, like, for consumer, like, why do we have  an FDA? It was, you know, more than 100 years ago,   Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act. Why? Because the  very reason Lilly was founded. There were too   many fake snake oil things that, we’re back there  now. And when we test stuff which we buy online,   which we do, a meaningful percentage of the stuff  does not contain tirzepatide. Okay. And then those   that do often there’s mistakes in the amino acid  sequence. So it’s not. It’s like tirzepatide like.   We’ve recently published a study that if you  commingle it with vitamin B12, which is a very   common thing to do to skirt around the legalities  of compounding, it actually forms a new complex   molecule that’s not tirzepatide. Never been tested  in man, although except for the people taking it   today, they’re testing it. Yeah. This is actually  crazy. And it’s not what we should be doing. And   you understand well what we have to do to get a  medicine that’s safe and effective. Most public   does not. I mean, we, the tirzepatide is, I think,  series number 7,023, which means we made 7,022   other versions of tirzepatide we threw away.
\  Amazing. To get the one with these properties.  Do you really want to mess with that? Like that   seems like a nutty proposition. Now there’s noises  that this will be closed off, at the same time,   we hear noises that, like peptides that are not  proven to do anything, may be unleashed through   this channel. Let’s see what plays out. I  think we just have to keep communicating.\ 
And honestly, the only reason this   exists is pricing. And, you know, I feel sorry for  those consumers who think they’re getting the same   thing at half the price. They’re not. But as our  offerings get better, as coverage gets better,   I think this this gets reduced. There is a big  expansion in access this year on the federal side,   which is part of our MFN deal with the Trump  administration. I think that’s going to be   interesting to see what happens there. $50.  There’s nobody using compounding who’s going to   use compounding when they get $50 Zepbound. That’s  not going to occur. So we’ll, we’ll see. That’ll   be interesting experiment to measure. Okay. Is it  really just that and, and, I suspect that’s going   to start the end along with hopefully some policy  response from this administration. Let’s hope so.   Yeah. Okay. Maybe shifting from obesity. What’s  the next big opportunity for Eli Lilly? Yeah we   need to find it. Of course we run a base business  that is like pretty similar to the company like   when you first started following us, you know, we  valued, and then I took over. That’s still going   and growing you know, mid-teens actually. That’s  a good drug business. In fact, if we peel it out   ourselves, you know, I think you’d put it in the  top three out there. It just gets overshadowed by   this, you know, sort of generational opportunity 

  • and that makes sense. But our job is to keep   that going and grow it faster if we can. The most  mature part of that franchise is oncology. We’ve   got, I think, more substrate in phase three  now than ever. I think we have four phase   three projects going right now, and they’re not  against small things. You take, like, our oral   SERD program, we’ve got a really key study reading  out in the next year in the adjuvant settings.   EMBER-4 study for imlunestrant. And I think that’s  a giant opportunity. Duration of therapy is very   long. A surprising fact is that degraders seem  to be more effective than other modes of blocking   estrogen. If that’s true for imlunestrant, that’s  a big opportunity. We’re building out some other   capabilities. Of course, everyone’s working on,  um, the ADC platform as we are, but also, you   know, radioligands, other things, I’m optimistic.  None of those are going to be drugs, anything like   the ones we just spoke about in terms of size, but  by historic standards could be quite meaningful   drugs in the industry. And so I think we have  to be this in this like two mode method of like   in that category, be the winner, even though that  may mean it’s still a lot smaller than our leading   category. I think brain health and neuroscience  has the most, like, upside potential in it,   both because the amount of human suffering and  the lower competitive density. Lilly’s got a   long history there. We’ve got some important  studies going. We’ve got more to do. Actually,   today we announced the deal with Centessa. Looking  at this orexin pathway, which is very interesting   for wake and sleep, maybe in some ways like a  little bit of a corollary to GLP-1 because here   you have like this nodal pathway that has a lot  of other disease impacts. Could be interesting if   the drugs are safe enough. If it turns out that  overstimulating a natural pathway like GLP-1   turns out to be useful and safe, but, you know, we  need to look for those opportunities. Of course,   you know, neuropsych is huge on mandate still. And  I’ve been saying that for like a decade. And we   sort of retreated from that like 15 years ago. But  other than like ketamine, I don’t know of any real   step up there. That’s kind of sad because ketamine  is not a new idea. Really? Um, maybe that changes.   If it does, we’d like to be a part of that. And  those that can make for a very big category.   So that one’s probably has the best chance of  competing with our cardiometabolic franchise,   at least in my tenure. How about Alzheimer’s?
    \  Yeah. I put that in that one. So dementia that’s  here now. I mean, we’re treating people. That’s   pretty linear uptake. I’m encouraged by  that. Kind of like diagnostic drives use.   So that’s our focus now. And of course we have  a prevention study running that has people with   amyloid positive but symptom negative to see if  we can reduce conversion to symptom positive.\ 
    Uh, I think that’s a seminal study for   the industry actually, because if that turns out  to be true in this neurodegenerative condition,   there’s a lot of parallels in Parkinson’s and  other things that could be a big category of   drugs for the industry. And hopefully  we’d be a part of that growth as well.\ 
    So we need that data, but that’s an exciting   one too. I’d put that in the neuroscience. Again,  another, another thing that could get really big   and help a lot of people. Yeah, that’s an  interesting study. So these are in patients   pre-symptomatic to Alzheimer’s. Yeah p-tau217  positive. We didn’t even scan them. We just   blood tested. And so that’s in the in the noise of  the, of the signal. And then the question is after   a period of time can you reduce the odds ratio of  converting to symptomatic. I think it’92s a very   compelling value proposition for consumers.  Here again, maybe like a more consumer thing.   It’s a preventative. It’s a, you know, walking  well, people with a precursor to the disease,   amyloid signature for Alzheimer’s.
    \  But we do know people have high amyloid and  don’t ever develop Alzheimer’s, but can we reduce   those that do? And if we can, that’s a major  breakthrough. Do you think the efficacy could be   better than what you saw in TRAILBLZER 2 in your  symptomatic patients. That’s our hope, I think,   because if you look at the TRAILBLAZER 2 study, no  matter how you slice severity, whether you look at   like tau burden, which is the secondary protein of  Alzheimer’s or age or symptomatic symptomatology,   so people with more, more advanced symptoms.  If you go earlier and earlier in that slice,   the effect size gets bigger and bigger. And it  sort of flies with the theory of amyloid that   it is sort of the triggering pathway and that it’s  not actually doing the direct damage like tau is,   but without amyloid you don’t get the tau  accumulation. So it kind of makes sense with the   cartoons and the textbooks that we’ve read about.  But you got to prove it in the real world, that’s   different than the compounding world. Like you  have, we have to do the study, and if it works,   we would expect quite a bit of use. You mentioned  Centessa. How has your M&A strategy evolved now   that you’re scaling the business and we’re going  to continue to scale the business? Yeah, it needs   to evolve. I think we’ve you know, when I started  it was sort of nascent, I would say occasionally   when we looked at stuff, the bias internally was  internal over external. There wasn’t like a stood   up motion to do this continuously. And part of  that is, you know, I think what John tried to do   is really sort of reinvigorate the organic engine.  That’s a necessary actually to be a smart buyer   externally. So maybe this had to go in steps.  What we did was create a systemic motion. So   we’re every week huddled up on every data room,  every deal in play, many deals not in play.\ 
    So we, we instigate deals.   We like to trade in front of data. We have ideas  about what we’re interested in that is not in our   labs. So we made that a very proactive motion.  And it’s constant. But by definition it’s become   more of a string of pearls kind of approach. You  can tolerate more failure that way. That’s good   because we can take risk. We do a lot of deals.  We did like 40 deals last year. That’s a lot,   way more than anyone else. But we deployed like  the 10th most amount of capital. So cheaper deals,   but many of them. Probably that cheaper part will  change. Purely if we have a growth ambition, which   we do, I think we want to be priced like a growth  stock. We don’t want to get to some terminal state   on GLP-1. Which will happen at some point where  the inflow of new patients equals the outflow   and we stop growing so aggressively and not have  a path to growth that feels - it’s not defeat. We   did a lot of good, but that’s not what we’re going  for. We’re going for finding the next big things,   or a whole series of bigger things that amount  to more growth on top of that and that’s going to   require external innovation and internal.
    \  We just need more ideas. Internal probably  scales a bit, but there’s a lot of data in   our industry that scale drives inefficiency, not  creativity, and so I worry a lot about that. We’ll   moving it forward there. We have different ideas  there. But then, you know, we need to get smarter   about buying. So we’ll open up the aperture  therapeutically. That’s one way without changing   the strategy, but probably lift up a little bit  the price number and by definition then the phase   of development where we really scrub things down.  Yeah, it’s unusual because you haven’t, I don’t   think you’ve done a transaction over 10 billion  since you’ve. Loxo was the biggest. It was eight.   Eight. So size of deals could go up? Centessa is  big for us. It’s like six. Yeah. Yeah. I mean,   look, as you know, in the in the drug space, it’s  a weird industry in a way, because you have maybe   20 pretty scaled legacy companies. Lilly’s one  of those. 150 years. The names we all know.   And those are almost, well, except for Lilly,  they all trade like, you know, countercyclical,   you know, stable stocks, basically. And then  you have a pretty big gap in the middle,   and then you have like 500 biotechs, probably  200 of them shouldn’t be public, but you know,   you have that. But there’s only like ten companies  in the middle. It’s less than the big ones. It’s   weird. So there aren’t that many, like, mergers  where you’d say, okay, I’m getting a revenue line   and marketed products that are that interesting  to me. I think it’s more like at the top of that   biotech thing, where in the past we did have a  belief that if something’s mature enough that   everyone can see it, it’s probably hard to get  some sort of value out of that transaction. You’re   going to pay the prior investors. They like that,  Woodline probably likes that when we do that. But   it’s hard to create value for your shareholders  that way. It’s just tighter. Unless you have some   big like commercial unlock or some other thing,  they screwed up and you can fix. But you know,   we might have to look for more of those and  I think if we widen our therapeutic aperture,   maybe, maybe we’ll find more. Makes sense. Does  the Lilly Direct channel change your view on what   you may look at? It does. Yeah. I think because  if you say okay, let’s not use therapeutic space,   but use like, a different frame. Like we have  common medical conditions where people use their   primary care doctor, you have referred to medical  conditions like Alzheimer’s today or oncology   where your primary care doctor to a referral.  Those markets behave pretty differently. Higher   price points, a much lower volume. And then  you might have this like self-care prevention   segment. Okay. So we looked at our business that  way. We’re kind of a leader in that middle one now   because of obesity.
    \  We’re trying to make headway here. We’re also  leader over here. But it’s growing. And so what   else could grow it? There’s a whole list of  preventative things that are interesting that   need to get drugged. And if they get drugged  safely, that could be great kind of portfolio   items for us. There’s also kind of non-medical,  not medically covered, but medically proven things   like in cosmetics that could be interesting  where people are self activating as well.\ 
    So we to get there you’d   really have to have like one compelling idea. I  think the kind of list of like McKinsey decks that   turned into real businesses is pretty low. I think  you need like a great drug and then you can enter.   So we’re open to that idea too.
    \  On a personal level, true story. A couple  of weeks ago, I was having a dinner with a   bunch of different investors, and I sat next to a  Lilly employee who I had never met before and so   I mentioned to him that you and I were going to be  talking. And I asked him, I said, what do you want   to know from Dave? Oh, great, here we go. And he  said, I’d really love to understand what makes him   tick, what inspires him?
    \  And I said, well, awesome, because that’s the name  of this podcast actually. So I have to ask you,   you know what? What makes you tick? What inspires  you each day? Yeah. It’s a good question. I mean,   I think there’s like a couple of layers to it. I’m  someone who probably I would be accused of being,   like, loyal to a fault. I have a, for whatever  reason, like a, I like the things I participate   in. I tend to stick with them a long time. And,  I definitely feel that about Lilly. I’ve been   here for 30 years, and that’s something that  I’m really adhered to. Making sure, Lilly,   you know, carves out its place in the world and  keeps it because I care a lot about the place.\ 
    Another thing, it’s like if   you gathered around, like, our kitchen table with  our, our kids are adults now, but even now, okay,   it is even worse now. You know, on a Saturday  night and we broke out a board game, you would   have sworn, like we hated each other and we were,  this was war. I’m a very competitive person and   so are my kids. We, you know, we have fun with  that because you can kind of simulate that and   then the game gets put away and you’re all happy.  But I like to win a lot. And I don’t find a lot   of satisfaction in coming in second. And that’s a  big like inspiration for me is it’s a competitive   industry, but the competition doesn’t just reward  us. It actually has a much bigger effect on our   purpose. This is what we do.
    \  And that’s the last piece is I kind of stumbled  into Lilly. I don’t know if you know this story,   but you know, I only worked here because my wife  was going to med school in Indianapolis and we   were fianc’e9e at the time, and I’m like,  I need a job, so I’ll go there and work for   Lilly. I worked in the BD M&A group for a couple  of years, and I thought when she, two years, she   was going to graduate med school and then go to a  residency somewhere, and I’d leave. She ended up   matching here in Indianapolis. So I stayed, which  was like a pretty prophetic thing. And then it   was five years here, and then that loyalty thing  kicked in and Lilly was great to me. But early in   my career, I worked on a business development deal  and the medicine that I brought into the company,   we completed phase three. Then I went and launched  in the US as the brand manager and shortly after   that, my own mother called me and said I was  diagnosed with the disease and I got this medicine   and it has Lilly on it. And I think if you work  in this industry and you have those like personal   moments where it’s, I mean, you know, objectively,  yeah, we’re improving health conditions, but when   it actually helps someone in a profound way that  you care a lot about, like your mother, it’s like,   that’s why we’re here. That’s a pretty good way  to go through life is like doing that over and   over again, and you just want more of it. Like  when you succeed at that, it’s like, I want to   do that more. So that’s a big driver. That was a  turning point for you. That that was like the lock   in point. I loved Lilly. I was surprised at what  I found here. I was like, but the industry seemed   kind of underdeveloped, like sleepy and Lilly,  too. So it seemed like a place where if you were   good at business, you could make a difference. And  I started in business development, so I always had   this, like, external focus. And it was a great  way to learn the industry and I was excited by   biotechnology at the time. This was like 1996.  So, you know, we were just getting monoclonal   antibodies and like waves of innovation were  coming. And then the culture, you know, I thought   the people were smart and wanted to work hard.
    \  We were talking about the Midwest earlier. And  there was a lot to like about running a company in   the Midwest. Kind of no fuss, no mess. People just  come to like you’ve come to, it’s still true, you   come here like, I don’t know how many corporate  America cafeterias serve breakfast at scale,   but we serve breakfast at scale.
    \  People come here early and eat breakfast. I  think that’s an interesting thing. That’s not   that common in my estimation. So people like to  work here. They’re proud of being part of Lilly.   There’s obviously a big halo in the community of  what this company’s meant to the state and the   city. And you tell your neighbors, yeah, I work at  Lilly. Oh, that’s great. And then people come here   and they try to live up to that obligation. What’s  been the most difficult aspect of being CEO?   Well, you know, I think actually the  job’92s changed a lot, even with me in it,   like in the ten years that we’ve become companies,  big companies especially have become this sort of   place people want to turn to for like truth and  connection. And it’s a little bit of a weird,   there’s a guy who does a podcast like this, and  he writes for The Atlantic and he talks about   this workism. I think it’s an interesting turn  of phrase. It’s like it kind of replaces your   sense of community outside of work. That’s true.  And so your employees demand you take positions   on lots of stuff and I don’t like that. Like I  actually think a company has massive positive   spillover effects. I don’t think intervening in  like public policy per se is one of them. I think   that’s actually a problem. People should vote and  they should, you know, guide society in that way.   I think that health care and like, drug pricing  and all this is a mess. And it’s hard to be in the   middle of that mess and sort of go forward. You  can come off and hurt your company’s brand. You   know, by being a jerk about it. You can also be  so uncentered on it that like it is, we do deserve   reward for what we do, and what we do creates a  huge amount of value in the health care system.   I’d guess more than any other thing in the  health care system. So, maybe combined. So   we shouldn’t apologize either. And yet a lot of  the problems we have aren’t even our fault. It’s   like government rules and so forth. So you got to  wade in. But it’s, boy it’s painful. That’s just   tough going. And it gets personal because you’re  the face of the company. Those aren’t fun things.   Some people say like investor interactions, but  I actually like investor interactions because I   think the questions either teach you what the  Street is talking about that makes no sense,   which is frequent. Yeah. Or like really good  questions where you’re like, you know what?   We need to be sharper on that. Like it’s a, it’s a  surface area to bounce ideas off of. But you know,   most CEOs don’t get a lot of. So I actually like  that one. But yeah. Anything you would have done   differently over these ten years?
    \  Sure. The longest list is like on the people  side. Like most of us, probably, in our judgment,   some people aren’t perfect. Either moving faster  on problems or who we brought in and then didn’t   work. And, you know, that’s probably for  managers, like we all can relate to that.   That’s probably one of the hardest things is like  admitting you’re wrong and you’re kind of the last   to admit it when you have someone that’s just not  working out. Yeah. Those are. And then, you know,   there were some other tough situations that I  won’t go into here, but it’s just like, ugh, you   know, that stuff’s emotional and sticky and no  matter what level you are, whether you’re that   employee sitting next to you at dinner or mine  like that doesn’t really change. You know? We’ve   taken bets that didn’t work. I don’t regret any  of those. That’s part of the business. You got   to take swings and you don’t get home runs unless  you swing. And, you know, I think how we’ve run   the business. I’m proud of that. I don’t have  too many regrets in terms of the discipline   and choices we’ve made. This has been a great  interview. Thank you so much. Maybe to end it.   If we’re sitting here ten years from now, which  would be great, I would love that. I’m sure this   room will look exactly the same. It was this way  ten years ago. Yeah, yeah. But you’re 160. What   do you want to have accomplished at that time? I  think there’s like three big things. One is like,   make incretins not like, like PD-1s. Prove the  case out that this is more like antibiotics. I   often draw this analogy, and people like what?  But, you know, antibiotics made modern medicine.   It took the focus of modern medicine really on  treating acute disease poorly, and shifted the   focus to chronic disease and made chronic disease  possible. You can’t even do surgery without   antibiotics. And Lilly was at the forefront of  that. We marketed penicillin and vancomycin, still   the backbone of hospital care was the Lilly  invention, and I think GLP-1s and this category,   this is like for chronic disease, the same thing.  We can afford to talk about longevity because   we’re going to be able to solve obesity.  I think that’s a vision we have to have.\ 
    But we need the runway   to do it. If you know generics come and wipes out  the economic incentives, we won’t see that. So,   you know, we’ve got to innovate faster so that  we can keep the replacement cycle going and   keep improving the standard of care. The second  thing is like build the rest of the business,   we have kind of a gift here if we think the best  capital is the Lilly R&D value in the industry,   I think that has been the best capital.
    \  Can we keep that going and can we make other  diseases obsolete? And I think we have to try.   We also have to not have hubris. We need to have  the courage to say, okay, we tried and failed,   and then we’ll be buying back a ton of stock for a  while. But that’s less satisfying. But the truth.   But I think we’ve got a 3 or 4 year window to sort  of try that. And we’re certainly going to flex,   flex into that. The final thing is like the way  Lilly works. We talked a lot about consumer. I   think that’s been such a gift to us to like,  really learn about health care and not be so   insulated. But I, I wish for a company with  like leaders and people that will take over   when I’m gone, that really own the customer and  love innovation. I think at the end of the day,   that’s what we do.
    \  We connect science to people with problems,  and if you can see both sides clearly and know   both and make good decisions, you know,  then you can be a great leader in this,   in this industry and hopefully in this  company and we just need more of those.\ 
    Well thank you. It’s been an honor.   You’ve done such a great job for patients and for  shareholders, so we really appreciate it. Thanks.   Thanks. Good to be with you.
    }