Biggest Wealth Transfer Has Started 5 Macro Predictions For 2026

TITLE: Biggest Wealth Transfer has started | 5 Macro Predictions for 2026 CHANNEL: Akshat Shrivastava DATE: 2026-05-25 ---TRANSCRIPT--- Hey guys. So on this video I’m going to analyze this Donald Trump’s prediction. He’s saying that he’ll make the Fed chair cut the interest rate in a way and that will skyrocket the stock market. So I’m going to analyze this prediction with macro details with data and will accordingly accordingly invest my own money in this theme. Plus I’ll be making additional five predictions about the stock markets wealth building which is going to deeply deeply deeply impact you. Now I’m not someone who gives out random predictions. Roughly two and a half three years ago I started investing a huge chunk of my portfolio into the US stocks. I gave a detailed commentary on that. I guided my community accordingly. I built out a portfolio in front of live students. That portfolio is excelling. Okay. US dollar has gone up compared to INR. INR has gotten crashed. Indian markets has done badly. Now I’m not taking any joy in that prediction. Okay, this was all based on macros. So on this video I’m going to make similar predictions. Please watch this video till the very end with very careful lengths. This is going to impact your wealth. I can be wrong. I’m not saying that I cannot be wrong. All I’m saying is that whatever I say, I’ll back it up with logic and accordingly I’ll be putting my money. So that’s the game. So let’s start. Prediction number one that Donald Trump is going to cut the interest rate or will rather have his new Fed chair cut the interest rate. Some background here. So Jerome Powell used to be the Fed chair. He was little bit iffy in terms of cutting the interest rate and the new guy has come in now, right? And he is likely to go with what Donald Trump is saying. And if he cuts the interest rate, the stock market will rally. Now is this likely? Is this not likely? What’s the fundamental interlinkages between these two things? Cutting interest rate, stock market going up. Let me explain that. Okay. So okay, so here is what you need to know. So for example, this is the US interest rate and this is 2024. Okay. So in 2024 we were at peak interest rate one could argue 5.5%. And since then it has been coming down right right now we are at 3.8% US interest rates and Donald Trump is further likely to push his Fed chair cut this further. Okay now what has happened from let’s say September of 2024 August September 2024 up until now what has the stock market done? Now I’ll show you the chart in a minute but basically the summary is that QQQ has gone up dramatically the US stock market. Okay, what has been the impact on the Indian stock market? Unfortunately, it hasn’t gone up because there were like gravitational pull on it. INR was falling, FIS were withdrawing money, etc. So, I’ll comment on both US market and and Indian market here, right? What’s likely to happen? But very quickly basics here is that whenever interest rate gets cut, okay, the stock market typically goes up. So, let me show this to you for US first and then I’ll move to the Indian market. So, here is you can see like the US stock market. So, this is the period, right? It’s August 2024. The US stock market has gone up by 54%. Okay? So 54% in the last 2 years or less than 2 years, one and a half years. Okay? Why? Because interest rates were cut. Now why does this happen? Because typically whenever interest rates are cut, this increases more money in the economy, right? So interest rate cut means what? Right? For example, if you go from let’s say 5% to 3%. It simply makes the borrowing cheaper. So people borrow more, companies borrow more, they put up more capacity and they hire more etc etc. So as a result this translates into a ripple effect for the economy. There is more liquidity in the market and this kind of reflects in the stock market. So this is the general understanding. Does it work 100% of the times? No. But for the last two or three major cuts, this has always worked out. So one major cut had happened in 2019 2020 period right when there was covid interest rates were suddenly brought down and stock markets rallied and this again happened last in 2024 we are in that same interest rate cut cycle for the last six odd months we were like you know sort of just there and now it’s expected that interest rates will go down okay so this is the understanding now this will 100% happen not happen I don’t know but I’m betting or I’m making the prediction that this will happen soon okay soon enough right why multiple reasons because number one right growth is struggling right in the world generally AI stocks or AI infrastructure built out requires cheaper capital Donald Trump’s midterm elections are coming so all these things kind of pushes the government in the US to kind of look for avenues to cut the interest rates okay so this is going to happen and again we can expect this market because it has rallied so hard right we can expect maybe like worst case scenario sideways market here something like this right or it could very well keep on rallying a little bit and then it can consolidate but a consolidation is definitely on the cards for the US market because it has run up so much okay so that’s the reason so there could be a pullback but but structurally right I mean if we zoom out and see that for the next 1 one and a half two years US market is good okay so these levels right QQQ levels of 720ish can be maintained okay so it can happen that we move in like a 10% range up and down from here right so this becomes a very good trading range how to exactly trade it I will teach it on my community I myself will be doing it. I myself will be taking all these swing trades but yeah this is not a great time to enter the market right on QQQ you can buy individual stocks but yeah this is the situation okay so prediction one now let me pull up nifty50 so nifty50 has been consolidating for the last 2 years nothing much has happened now people are saying that you know what okay Indian market PE ratio still around 20 so this is not cheap okay true right I agree that this market is not cheap maybe right not because of the fact that 20p is high Okay, this is largely due to the fact that we don’t have growth options. And right now, right, I mean in context of the interest rate cuts. See, when interest rates are cut and capital becomes cheap, people want to invest in growth assets. They want to put like, you know, okay, we’ll borrow money and we’ll throw it in like an asset that can grow really fast over the next few years. So these are the type of assets that they look for especially on equities. And unfortunately, these type of options are not there in the Indian market. So I would still bet on the fact right on a recovery right this is very very likely this recovery we might hit here okay so this is like a good 10% swing which can be captured on the Indian market now right so this is a good time to enter the Indian market on the short frame right and then kind of rotate this channel okay so this is very important right I myself will be doing it I will be pulling out some money right from nifty50 the swing trade that I have given I’m like maybe 5% down on it so if this opportunity comes I will exit some of that nifty50 and rotate okay so this is prediction number one that interest rate cuts are likely to happen and we will see like a short-term swing on the Indian market on the upside and US market short-term wise right I mean it might not be great at an index level but lot of good individual stock opportunities are there so this is prediction one okay so prediction number two is that we go to INR as around 105 to 110 by end of this year okay so this is likely going to happen and I’ll explain you the reason why okay so there is a video also that I had done right but I’ll give A very quick summary on this topic. See INR basically gets weaker or it loses value because there is some kind of trade deficit running right. So current account for example if you’re exporting more minus importing that’s a positive here. Okay. So this brings us dollar if you’re exporting more. Okay. But in India’s case this account is usually negative. Why? Because we are a net importer of goods. If energy prices stick around $100 a barrel then INR will keep on losing value. Okay. So this account will definitely be negative. right for a foreseeable future right and what is happening is that because of the point one right that I was speaking about prediction one that hey hardly any growth assets to chase capital account basically means that hey how much investors are putting into the Indian market right how much money they are bringing into the Indian market versus how much money they are taking out of the Indian market so this again right I mean the entire cycle from 2021 has been negative and this is not good okay and this hasn’t turned okay so likely scenario is that this also stays negative. So therefore, so this likely scenario of 105 to 110 is very very likely to get hit by December, right? Especially if the energy prices stay high, right? Which again is it’s estimated that this is going to be high. So if I have to bet one way, right? Then I will bet or make the prediction that hey, INR will hit 105 to 110 this year. Now what does this mean for investors? That is a more important point because many people are saying that you know what it hardly matters to us. Why do we care? It doesn’t bankrupt us. See, if you’re in NRI, then it’s a definite problem for you, right? Why? Because you are saving expensing everything in dollar terms or Singapore dollar wherever you are. And if you’re sending money into India, then it keeps on losing value, right? So, a better approach is that you can go and check out belong. They give out excellent rates in terms of making the FCNR deposits. You can do it via gift city route. I myself have been putting a little bit of money which I require for safety via this app. It’s very well regulated. It’s regulated by Indian entities. It’s regulated by foreign entities. So it’s safe from that lens. And you can go and check out more details in the comment and description box. So okay, so that’s just one point. The second point is that if you are even a domestic investor, okay, the thing that you need to keep in mind is that see many people are predicting that you know what this will go up or this will come down, this will go up or it will go into a breakout or breakdown zone. See guys, all this needs to be seen in context of currency depreciation. Okay. Now it might very well happen that we are just going sideways like this. Okay. And we keep on doing it for another year. But if INR keeps losing value then in real terms in real terms you are losing money right this is a very important bit. Now what is it that domestic investors can do because they might not have the option of using like FCNR and all that stuff. So what they can do is that they can simply transfer some money in US stocks right they can simply go and buy some US index all that stuff this can be done this kind of protects you against the INR fall this is my second prediction that this will this is likely to happen now I will also explain you when is it that I will be trading more in the Indian market in a minute right but before that let me make prediction number three okay prediction number three is that we will see acceleration of K-shaped economy now what is the meaning of K-shaped economy. So this is what a K-shaped economy looks like, right? Now it has like these two parts, right? This is part one. This is part two. Okay. Now part one basically says that the rich keeps getting richer, right? So people who are on the upward trajectory, they keep on getting or compounding their wealth at a faster rate and at the same time the poor gets poorer, right? But unfortunately what ends up happening is that we don’t see this this this entire topic in the context of society, right? because we just think okay rich people maybe like you know top 30 40% 50% in India they are rich no okay if I have to assign some numbers I will say that hey this is like top 10% India okay and the second category is 90%. Now our middle class like up to up till a few years ago it was growing really well because it jobs were expanding, people were expensing more, our credit cycle was being expanded etc. Now this was very positive for our economy. Okay. But unfortunately what has happened is that in this middle class right rather than people moving up they are moving down. Okay. So this kshap acceleration is going to compound very very fast. Okay. Now why am I talking about this topic? This is a very important topic. Maybe I’ll make a specific video on this topic itself. But what happens due to this K-shaped is that this hits the structural part of our economy or it this literally changes the structure of our economy. Okay. For example, many of us keep on understanding that you know what India is a consumption based economy. This is very important point if you’re a stock market investor. Right? See what happens is that consumption of what type? Because for example if I say that you know what Zumato as a company is growing really well you’ll be very impressed that okay they used to do like 1,000 crores of sales now suddenly like within a year they are doing 1,500 crores of sales. Now is 1,500 crores of sale something amazing in India maybe. Okay because the company has been able to expand its revenues right top line it’s able to sell more really fast but the question that we forget in the Indian market is that there is significant margin compression. Now margin compression means that see as people move down the economy chain they become more price conscious they just literally compete on price you know if they are getting 5 rupee more discount in Swiggy they will switch to Swiggy and if they get like you know some more a discount on Zumato they’ll you know switch to Zumato so this type of game is playing out at scale right now okay that companies are printing a lot of revenues but they are unable to grow profits really fast this is the problem right and this is a structural issue that will keep on happening if people keep falling down on this K-shaped. Okay, so I hope I’m able to explain you this complicated concept and that was the bottom line and that’s an insight because if you’re a stock market investor basically what is it that we are looking for? We are looking for EPS growth, right? Earning per share growth. Now earnings means what? Earnings means profits. Okay, it does not mean revenues. Okay, so earnings per share growth is what we are looking for. And the only way this happens is that if there is expansion of profit margins or the operating profit margin on certain types of businesses are going up. So that’s the insight. Okay. And therefore like certain industries for example I’m bullish on something like hospitals in India. Okay. Pharma is okay. I’m bullish on wealth management in India. So these are industries on the K-shaped curve which will benefit from this top 10%. But the bottom 90% type of businesses like consumption businesses etc. they are getting hit really badly. Okay. So yeah. So this prediction becomes especially more important in context of the next prediction that I’m making that hey China and US are going to work together to win the AI race. Now what we need to understand is and I will highlight something very interesting right about the India’s economy and then I will bring US and China into the mix. See so basically what this shows is seed plus series A funding right in the Indian market year- wise okay and this blue bar indicates foreign funding. Okay, that FIS were investing and this green chart talks about DIAS or domestic investors. Now what you would notice is this sudden spike right of blue bar okay in 2021 right and what did our stock markets do post 2021 right so they grew like really fast between like say 2021 to 2023 period and since 2024 they have just gone sideways but what has started happening was let’s see fi started withdrawing a crazy ton of money right from 2022 onwards okay and they haven’t been putting like that amount of money aggressively for example look at like the total investments that made by FIS here even if you add this this and this it does not even feature here okay so what I’m trying to tell you is that hey there was a cycle in India’s market the cycle was that fiis will do series a seed funding now what is series a seed funding for example zomat swiggy small companies a lot of foreign money will come ptm Chinese company almost okay lot of foreign money came okay then these companies grew in size and they IPOed then whatever foreign money had grown here because if some like you know foreigner is investing one unit of money here when the company is small it goes 100 units then he will take out like 30 40 units of money okay so this is the game that had gone on in the previous cycle of India’s economy and SIP sellers right I have been against them right SIP sa disciplined investing disciplined investing right this is the precise game that is happening people were just too dumb to see it right every time you do SIP at sky high prices you are giving fi FI is an exit. This is something that has happened at scale and this is the reason why right for the last 2 years our markets have not performed because no new FI money is coming in at scale. Okay. So this cycle turned out to be really bad. Okay. Now see I’m not here to cry. Okay. I already had diversified. I have guided my community accordingly. I’m here to tell you like what is the next cycle that I see. So the next major cycle that I say is the AI cycle. This trade is already picking up. Now what is happening in this AI cycle is that see US has the best market right where you can command like really good profits experimental capital is there research is there free market concept is there that hey you know what if Nvidia needs more funding it can go to public to get that funding okay why equities China right what is it that they will do well they have some kind of manufacturing mode so if AI adoption picks up what happens right China benefits because it goes up right even on its manufacturing cap capabilities. Okay, if AI adoption picks up, okay, they are able to increase their GDP per capita, how does it benefit the US? Well, the top companies in the US, for example, Nvidia, Tesla, all these companies whose owners kind of support Donald Trump, Republican party, etc., they keep the game alive of innovation there. So, both the parties or both the countries benefit if AI benefits. Okay, this is part one very important point. Now, let’s imagine a scenario where AI collapses. What do you think will happen? Well, the financial market in the US will collapse. Now, if the financial market in the US collapses, what do you think happens to China? China also collaps. Why? Because China has got a US a lot of US treasuries. It doesn’t work this way. This is not like you know both like US and China have machetes and they are trying to cut their throats and something like this. There will be mayhem in Chinese market. Okay. For example, in China, right? There was massive real estate crisis started in roughly 2022 2023. Okay. So, this was a major problem in China, right? So there is already GDP slow down and away right in China. The only way to accelerate the world’s GDP is that hey US and China work together. Chinese will provide like raw materials, labor lacks laws, lacks labor laws etc. US will have the leeway to experiment, bring in more public capital and both China and US will benefit. Okay. Now what this means? There are three things that this means. Number one, right? That a lot of benefit will flow to Chinese and American companies. For example, companies like Nvidia will continue to retain its profit margins or like growth rate. In China, they will move up the stack. Okay? They will have access to like South China Sea. They for example recently like Trump went with so many CEOs of different different companies to China. Why? Because the indication was that you know what let’s work together. So this is already in place. Okay. Second key implication is that we will see a slightly like or a temporary pause on all the volatility that is happening. Be it with Russia, Ukraine, be it with China, Taiwan, right? Because America is pretty much okay, right? It looks to me that they are okay, right? In terms of whatever China does to Taiwan. Okay. Similarly, China has raised no issues now like with the Venezuela, Iran war is yeah, it’s hardly like you know some anything happening now. So, long story short, this is where we are. Okay. When it comes to this timing the next cycle and this is critically important both for US and China in order for their survival. So, they are likely to work together. The third key implication is that see if China is able to amp up its manufacturing due to AI gains. What do you think China is going to do? Well, it is going to do dumping across a bunch of markets. Will it be able to do it in US? No. Because US and China are kind of dividing the world into two by China and this part of the world US will take. So, China might not dump in US territory but China might dump across a bunch of other countries. Okay? And India becomes a prime candidate. Right? according to me right now of course I might be off and I hope I’m off here right but there is a structural risk on our economy right and this is the next point that I wanted to talk about that hey we have to think about a structural issue that we are witnessing in India’s economy right now and this is my fifth prediction that we are in kind of a structural breakdown okay so let me take a minute to explain this right so for example if you take a look at this part okay so this is 2020 trade right we went like this this was a V-shaped recovery and here Right? What has happened is that this is not a recovery. This is still not a recovery. Right? 2 years zero gains plus in fact right negative in currency. Right? So for example if I ask you that hey we were here we are again here in 2 years. How much did we lose? You’ll say 0%. No not 0% because INR also fell by at least 12 13%. So our total returns are minus 12 13% in the last 2 years. Okay. Plus 2 year loss. So this is huge. Okay. So and what has happened during this phase is that the US stock market has actually gone up right like this. Okay. So the divergence between Indian stock market and US stock market this rarely happens at this scale. So you need to naturally ask that okay what is wrong with or structurally wrong with India’s economy. So there are two three things. Okay number one thing is that FX outflow right. So therefore Modi G said that you know what okay you know just stays for AC all that stuff stop using petrol. Second is the energy crisis right because India is a major importer of energy right? This is not the issue with US okay US has already secured its energy supply. This becomes a structural issue on our economy. Number three is AI/growth trade right that okay we were growing BPOS’s we were growing right and then suddenly like I you know this AI thing came and we got vanished now that’s not just the problem okay this is like everything everyone talks about this you have to think about the fact that hey you know what in this period right we always used to recover that hey us dropped like this then they recovered we also dropped like this we recovered in 2008 US had like this type of a recovery right key the recovery happened like this in four Yes, India also recovered like this. So this was a U-shaped recovery. So this matched. Okay, this part matched. This part matched 2008. Every time it matched, but this time it’s not matching. Why? There has to be something, right? So this is like catch-up trade. Okay, so for example, up until like before the AI trade really took off, there was always this indication grow. Okay, this is not a problem. We are fastest growing economy, positive positive things, this that stuff. So emerged markets like US fund markets or fund managers have to put money in Indian markets in some emerging economies for diversification. All this used to be there but now is this the case? The short answer is no because we don’t have growth options. Okay. So there is a structural breakdown. Now I don’t want to leave on a negative note. So I’ll give you like my related prediction here. Okay. So the related prediction here is and take a look at this chart. We’ll go back to this again. See what will happen is that we need to understand what will be the fundamental reason why fi will come to India. Okay. And accordingly if we plan our moves we will benefit from it. So for example the reason why fi will come back to India is very simple that hey they see another opportunity to invest in companies when they are this size and they are able to exit them when it becomes this size. Okay. Now this happens for two reason. Number one reason is that hey if there are some kind of massive growth triggers right that okay fine great like some kind of tech is getting built and we can benefit immensely from it. Okay. So they will go and put money. Okay. The second is that the market becomes so value so valued that they can go and buy buy out companies right which are small right because there is so much distress and then they can do turnaround of that company and make it bigger right so this is called as mergers and acquisitions in a way right that okay you go and buy dying companies you buy them you turn them around. So this will be seen in private equity lending space okay or private equity activity space. So I will be tracking these faces right I’m not bearish on the Indian market I’m just being realist right that hey whenever we see growth triggers or whenever we see enough value and private equity activity I will buy it okay till then my prediction is this that hey that we are likely to stay sideways right even if we are growing right we will just grow like plus 2 3% inflation adjusted okay and inflation has to measure like the segmental inflation for NIS and whatn not right plus 2 3% inflation adjusted so we unlikely to see like you know bumper gains on Indian stock market. It’s unlikely to happen that you know QQQ is growing at like 5% and Indian market is suddenly growing like you know 20 30%. That’s that’s unlikely to happen. Okay. So these are my predictions. I hope you enjoyed it. If you did do press the like button, subscribe to the channel and I’ll see you soon.