heading · body

Transcript

Three Signs The Bottom Is In Wayt

read summary →

TITLE: Three Signs the Bottom is In | WAYT? CHANNEL: The Compound DATE: 2026-04-07 ---TRANSCRIPT--- Yep, it’s us. Here we are. Hey, we’re not live. We’re recording during the day. Uh but we’re like as up to we’re on the cutting edge anyway. We’re as up tod date as we need to be, I think. But I just wanted to make that clear. I want to give a shout out to everyone who’s here for the debut chat. You guys are still welcome to come. Of course, we just we beat you to the punch, but thank you for being here. Uh today’s what are your thoughts is being broadcast from a combination of uh Long Island

and southern and southern Long Island and tax-free Florida. So yeah, southern right the Nassau County of the South. Uh I’m coming to you from Boca Raton. Michael is uh Michael is on Long Island and it’s great to uh great to be here with you guys. If you’re new to the show on what are your thoughts, we talk about all of the biggest topics affecting investors, traders, the markets, the economy of the week. We have tons of stuff to get to today. Super exciting. But before we do, we’re going to give a quick shout out to our sponsor, Franklin Templeton. What’s going on with Franklin? With geopolitical risks, trade uncertainty, and election volatility dominating headlines, 2026 is testing investors in new ways. When markets are unpredictable, passive strategies that simply track an index can adapt to changing conditions. That’s where Franklin Templeton’s active ETFs come in. With more than 50 strategies across equity, multi-asset, and fixed income, including munis, the lineup is built to adapt as markets evolve. Backed by over 75 years of active experience, Franklin Templeton is your trusted partner for what’s ahead. Learn more at franklintempleton.com/active ETFs. Before investing, carefully consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can find this and other information in each perspectives or summary perspectives if available at franklin templeton.com. Please read it carefully. All investments investments involved risk including possible loss of principle. Franklin Distributors LLC member FINRA SIPC. All right. Shout out to Franklin. So, all right. I’m gonna giving you the first topic because to me this is the most interesting question. We’re still getting these insane uh headlines about the Middle East, which we’ll get to in a second, but markets are not nearly as rattled as they were 10 days ago. And I guess the question is, is the bottom in? Many people are saying this despite the fact that entire civilizations will die tonight. Uh many people are saying the bottom’s in and um why don’t you take it take it from here. It’s like the former president of the United States said fool me once can’t get fooled again. What would have to happen George W. Bush. There’s a saying in Tennessee and Texas. Maybe they say in Tennessee too. Yeah. Great stuff. Okay. So the VIX is at 25 26. Right. Right. Um, despite the absolutely insane tweet from the current president, the S&P 500 is at down 67 basis points after a pretty pretty decisive uh 4-day rally. So, I don’t know if that was the bottom. Sure looks like one. But the question that I have to ask you is what would have to happen for this not to be the bottom? Because investors are looking past whatever’s happening today, whatever is being said. Oh, like what would how would it escalate and get worse? Yeah. What would we what would have to happen for us to retest all those like Go ahead. Yeah. A European oil tanker on fire. Sure. Glo global news like like a French because they’re all paying Iran under the table. So my point is this absent something that we’re not seeing today such as an you know an escalation of the events. Uh yeah, I would say that was the bottom. Well, we’re going to start focusing on earnings tomorrow. So, we’re we’re getting the banks coming up. We’re getting I think Delta reports tomorrow, which I’m long like we’re getting important companies are going to start reporting. And that’s where the market’s focus is going to go unless and until an oil tanker owned by Total in France, for example, is on fire in the straight. I’m I’m making up an imaginary scenario. I’m not predicting. Uh that will that will give you your 30 vicks and that will end the talk about the bottom is end because right now basically everything hinges on um whether or not we can get the 45day ceasefire that’s apparently being discussed or an end of the war with Iran which seems unlikely. But basically the the way that I the way that I look at this is it’s a hostage situation. The hostage is not a person. It’s the straight of Hormuz. It’s being held for ransom. I don’t quite understand why the Department of Defense didn’t appear to have planned better for this. They’re talking about landing troops on Car Island and all these things that I don’t fully understand. And I’m not giving a military opinion here, but it just seems like, wasn’t this obvious? Like, this was the only pressure point that Iran had to apply on the international community. Um, and and were there plans to do anything about this? Or was it like, hey, we’ll knock out all their military installations and all their uh their navy, which is great, their their um their air power will take air superiority, but like we’re going to allow them to choke 20% of all of the oil that has to move on the sea. Like we’re that we’re just going to seed that to them. So that’s what it’s like starting to feel like. And uh I think Trump’s frustrations, which we’re reading about and hearing about, probably have something to do with that. So I want to I mean, we’ll just we’ll reread what he said. Okay. Go ahead. All right. President Trump escalated his aggressive rhetoric toward Iran, threatening to wipe out the entirety of the country’s civilization if Tran doesn’t seed to his demands by 8:00 p.m. Tuesday. quote, “A whole civilization will die tonight.” I’m not laughing because I think it’s funny. Never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. It probably will. A whole civilization. But then he’s like, “God bless the people of Iran.” So, I don’t I don’t I guess nobody nobody knows fully what he means, but what we do know is he is doubling and tripling down on this 8:00 p.m. I’m guessing Eastern cuz that’s where he lives. 8:00 p.m. deadline for compliance or midnight destruction will begin. And he’s talking about wiping uh the city, the country out in four hours. So I’m guessing that means brid blowing the bridges and taking out the electrical infrastructure and so the stock market right now is like oh that sounds bad but he probably won’t do it. Is that the is that your your take on the reaction or lack of reaction? Yeah I was say that’s not my take that’s the market’s take. The market the market’s take the market is barely responding. The VIX is at 26. I don’t know if if uh traders took him at face value that he was going to wipe out a civilization, the VIX would probably not be at 26 and the S&P would probably be down 170 basis points. I So I listen to the political people and the military people in a time like this. Not because I think they know what’s going to happen. I don’t think anyone does, but it’s a more informed take than listening to a guy that manages a mutual fund, for example, on Wall Street. And what they’re saying is that he really thought you could you could drop a hundred million dollars in someone’s bank account and have somebody to negotiate with. Like he thought this would be like Venezuela where it’s like you want to get nuts, let’s get nuts. And then somebody reasonable is like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Uh, Mr. President, we can talk. and then you have some sort of agreement and money is changing hands and maybe there’s an oil deal. Like I think that’s what or this is what the military and the political commentators are saying about this. Nothing to do with Wall Street. They’re saying like the appearance is that the White House thought somebody rational, but we’re not talking about rational people. We’re talking about absolute maniacs, right? Okay. So, whatever. The market thinks the bottom is in. I think the bottom is in. Okay. Well, I don’t know if you’re right, of course, but I’m rooting for that. You’re right. This is what Edard Denni Oh, I gotta show this. John, can we put this on screen before we get to Satrini sent a a analyst on a ship through the straight of Hormuz and to see to see what’s really going on? Uh, can we scroll through this? All right. So, the markets are relying on satellite data. Satrini actually sent, they call him analyst number three with $15,000 recording gear and a speedboat to enter the straight of Hormuz. This is really uh this is really demonstrating that you can’t replace analysts with AI. I guess um the straight is not closed. Basically, what’s going on is Iran is taking tolls, which I think people understood, but uh I guess this guy had to go prove it for for uh his research firm. Thank you for your service. Here’s here’s Stacy Razgon. We got Satrini raising the bar on what I expect from my associates. That’s a great tweet. If it’s a tweet, um I’m not reading all this. It’s on screen. I don’t know. Is is uh is any research job on on Wall Street or off worth uh worth this this sort of effort? What what are your thoughts? This is this is uh this you’re the head of research at at Red Holtz. Stop asking this. I’m not the head of research. Uh whatever you are. Is this the kind of thing that you would uh this kind of thing that you would expect of your associates? Well, you know, I’m a team player. So, would you do? Absolutely. I don’t ask I don’t ask anybody to do anything I wouldn’t do. I’m going to guess that whoever analyst number three is this person has been to the Middle East before. Like this is not somebody that I’m guessing this is not somebody that grew up in Connecticut and uh went directly from boarding school to I don’t think I don’t think analyst number three is Kevin. I don’t think analyst number three is uh well this is pretty ballsy and maybe when this person gets back they will reveal themselves and uh be celebrated as one of the gutsiest uh researchers in in Wall Street history. Thank you for your service. All right, let’s talk about the market. So the this is from Jason. Oh wait, you want to do what Yardi said? What did Yardini say? Quote, I think Monday was the bottom. He said this on TV, pointing to US President Donald Trump’s recent speech and accompanying reports that suggest that a resolution to what investors feared could become an endless conflict. The markets reaction to these developments has been swift and positive. On the question of elevated oil prices, Yordenni expressed confidence in the US economy’s ability to weather the storm. He noted that as an exporter of oil and gas, the US actually benefits from higher prices unlike many overseas economies. Quote, “One way or another, the oil is going to come out of the Persian Gulf.” Okay. What? One way or the other? What’s the other way? Uh that’s a bottom It’s a bottom is in guy and that’s as good as it gets if you wanted to have somebody on your side of the argument. Now listen, I so this is short-term stuff. I don’t know if what where the market’s be in six months, but I think that absence something else happening, the market will will be less surprised by what’s happening. I mean, it just is. All right, whatever. We’ll see. You have you have some signs that the bottom is in. Let’s The most speculative traders panicked. This is from Jason Gford at at uh is are they still sentiment? Yeah, sentiment trading. Okay. Um, for only the third week ever, the smallest option traders spent one-third of their volume buying put options to open. The only other weeks were at the height of the COVID wash out. All right, so the people uh with the smallest dollar amounts who probably tend to be a little bit panicky are objectively panicking. Here’s another quiver. I like it. I like it. Investors are in one of the biggest rushes to cash in history. macro charts is looking at the flows into money markets and cash like ETFs over a three-month rolling period usually coincides with market bottoms. Um uh but this could get way more extreme. You could see m like you could see two more weeks of this. Sure. Yeah, of course. Yep. I don’t know if this is a timing tool, but I like it as a you’re in the zone. Um a confirmation that there is enough panic. It just might not be the most. You’re in the you’re in the zone. Yeah. Chart Kid made me a chart. I asked him, “Hey, what stocks bounced the hardest since the low.” Uh, and we’re looking at the percentage of stocks in the S&P that are up 5% since the local bottom. Oo. And this is good. Hold on. This is by sector. So, the number is the percentage of stocks in that sector. 53% up 5%. 53% of tech stocks are up 5% since the bottom. Interestingly, you know what’s really not getting much love at all? Service Now sitting at the bottom. Salesforce right there. Yeah. Not all tech stocks. Workday. I mean, right. Apple’s down 4% today. That’s a pretty big four and a half% today. It’s a pretty big move. Not sure what the story is. I didn’t see the news. Can I ask you um the low was 3:30 last day of March was? Yeah. Yeah. And April 1st starts the April 1st was last Wednesday starts the beginning of a new quarter and this quarter was the worst quarter for stocks since 2022. So is it possible? We think it’s the bottom, but all it is is a rebalance out of fixed income into stocks. Yes. Because the move in the first quarter lower in stocks was so extreme that all these wealth management firms and institutions did a rebalance and that’s what we got to start off the first week of April and nothing more than that. I know you’re big I know you’re a big story guy like oh it was the rebalance. I don’t quite buy that. big story guy. My ass. you’re a big story guy, but I definitely buy the fact that could this just be a dead cat bounce because stocks don’t go in a in a coinciding with the with a a Q2 rebalance. Stocks don’t go down in a straight line. Yeah. Um, we’ll see. So, let me ask you a question. And if you’re the CIO at a $200 billion RAIA and you run the, you know, there’s an internal TAMP and you run the asset allocation model for 300 financial advisors. Dude, you’re talking you’re talking round the errors. What you buy, you buy a billion or$2 billion worth of stock. But but it’s emblematic of what everyone’s doing. So, if you just come out of, let’s say it’s March 30th, it’s the last day of the worst quarter for US stocks in four years, isn’t your instinct, let’s rebalance now and capture that negative uh and make the most of that drop in equity prices? So, if a lot of people were thinking the same way, h a 60/40 portfolio is down. It’s not down enough. It’s not extremely not down enough for Yeah. to feel like everybody all of a sudden decided to rebalance once. But I do buy I don’t buy the rebalance part of it, but I buy the end of month, end of quarter type of let’s take a look at what’s happening and stocks are down straight, right? Let’s buy. Yeah, I totally buy that. So, this could very easily, despite me saying that I think this was the bottom. I don’t know what’s my confidence level there. 59%. I mean, I’m not like pounding the table. Okay. Related. Do you think a majority of investors understand how dividends work? Before you get there, 59 is a very soft level. I do believe it’s I I’m going to I’m going to say 69% chance that that was a bottom. 59 is very That’s very wishy-washy. 60% chance that we saw the bottom. 40% chance we did. I would say I would say like uh if I’m a betting man and you know I am like minus

  1. Yeah, I think that was the bottom.

I’m going to give it I’m going to give it a 40% chance. So, six. So, well, hold on. Let’s define this. You think that we retest the lows over I’m I’m saying like in the next like 10 trading days. My strategy is more about being right on camera than doing anything with my own money for this particular subject. So, let’s just put that out there, okay? If we don’t bottom, if there’s a if there’s a a rung Oh, let’s say there’s a full-scale invasion of Iran tonight and we start blowing up meaningful stuff possibly creating a like a starvation like it’s really bad. Okay. Then I can come back on in two days whenever the next time we’re we’re together and I could say, “Well, I told you there was only a 40% chance that it was the bottom and I look pretty smart.” If it is the bottom, none of us will even remember this conversation, but if we do, you’d say, “Yeah, I said there’s a pretty strong chance it was the bottom.” I said 40%. That is how you do it. This is You’re pro. Yeah. You’re talking to a professional market commentator, arguably the best in the nation. You know why I’m not good? So, because I’m actually like a human being. You’re committing. You’re like committing to You’re talking about 59% like a like a crazy person. No, cuz I’m not afraid of being wrong. It happens. You know, you you on the other hand, you’ve got a very a very soft I’m not afraid of being wrong either because I can’t be wrong in the way that I phrase things. So, I’m definitely not afraid of being wrong. Do you do you think a large portion of the investing population understands the mechanics of how a dividend is paid? Which population? Just the All right. Start with the general everybody. No, all investors. No, of course not. You think it’s like half and half? Which part of the dividend story are we talking about? All right. You call your dad. He’s been investing. He’s been investing his whole adult life. You ask him to explain. No. He owns a hundred shares of Johnson and Johnson. It pays a 3% annual dividend. Well, I’m making this up. Yeah. Um or he has, let me put it differently. He has a $100,000 in J&J and it pays him $3,000 in annual dividends. Could he explain what happens to the share price as that money is paid out? No, he couldn’t explain anything. He understands X dividends. No. No. Okay. I’m gonna say I’m going to give you actual polling, but I’m going to say it’s like nine out of 10 people can’t. Yeah. You think you’d agree with that? Yeah. They understand that it’s money that hits their brokerage account because they see it when they log in and it gives them their people like my dad. 10 out of 10 don’t know. How would my dad or anybody like my dad know dividend treatment? Yeah. I just think it’s interesting because dividends are such a huge component to the return. Well, less than before, but still important to the returns that people get in their retirement accounts, but they honestly don’t even they have no idea how it works. They could tell you how bank account interest is paid, and I think they think a dividend is similar, but it’s not. You know that you agree with that? Yeah. Like most people could explain to you, “Oh yeah, the bank uses my money. They invest it.” Oh, look at this guy. Look at this little guy. Why are you giving me money? What’s the money for? Toy from Walmart yesterday. He thinks the bottom’s in. He wants to invest. He bought a toy from Walmart yesterday and said he’s got to pay for it. So, thank you for that $7. I will take that boy. I’ll invest it for you. All right. Go. All right. Love you. What a good boy. All right. Let’s get into this. Me Faber on screen. and I’ll read it. This explains a lot. We did a survey on how dividends work and received thousands of responses. The question is, which of the following best describes how dividends work for a stock investor? Answer one, a stock yields 5%, the stock is trading at 100 and pays a 5% $5 cash dividend. After distribution, the investor now has a stock worth 95 and a $5 cash dividend. Or answer two, a stock yields 5%, the stock is trading at $100, pays a $5 cash dividend. After distribution, the investor now has a stock worth $100 and a $5 cash dividend. Now, obviously, if you are watching the show, you probably know chart off, you probably know um the answer is A1. The stock price adjusts for that payout. And that’s why we think of dividends as part of the total return for the stock. He is saying the audience mostly gets it. 90% of pros understand how dividends work and 80% of individuals he said Meb’s audience Meb’s audience mostly gets it. Right. So this is where I’m going. Yeah. Meb’s audience are the smartest, nerdiest, most sophisticated individual investors that exist. Correct. because that’s why they’re in his audience. Yeah. He does not put on a red nose and do a tap dancing routine. He’s not doing He’s not doing 40% chances. Yeah. He’s not like my audience. No. No. So, he says, however, for the broad-based audience, so this is outside of him, 60% of pros understand how dividends work. Um, only 25% of individuals understand how dividends work. Chance is at 25%. I think it’s less, right? Yeah. Yeah. But still, isn’t it interesting? Even if he’s right, 75% of individuals think that dividends are just free money that a company pays out like it’s a bonus. Yeah. Then why would a company pay why would a company pay out 100% dividend yield? Because they think it’s like a checking account where the where the bank like drops $5 on you because it’s interest. They don’t Well, think about it this way. Think about it this way because that’s what they equate. Think about it this way. If a business has $100,000 in its checking account and it sends $10,000 back to its owners, how much money is left in the business? Well, that’s how you’re supposed to think about it as a shareholder, right? But they they think about it like a bank account. It’s a brokerage account. It’s a bank account. I got income. I got income. I thought I thought that was interesting. All right. Uh somewhat related, even less related than that last thing and then we’ll move on. Black Rock launching its own NASDAQ 100 ETF. I saw Balunis thinks they’ll price it at 12 basis points. First, let me just show you this is Black Rock’s chart. Five years. Just level setting here. What’s going on? Now, let me show you Invesco. Black Rock shareholders have not done materially better than Invesco shareholders since the pandemic. Are you surprised by that? Say that one more time. Black Rock’s shareholders, Common Stock, have not done M they’ve done better over the last five years than the Invesco shareholders, but have they blown them out of the water? I’m not sure. Like the stock Black Rock’s peak was in 2021. It broke out again in 25. Wait, why are we asking this? Like I can’t check it. What do you mean you can’t check it? I’m showing it to you. I’m showing it to you. No, you’re not, dude. That’s a number. I’m I’m not giving you the not giving the percentage return. I’m giving you what the ride has been like. You’re joking, right? Well, I’m basically showing You’re saying people don’t understand how dividends work. You don’t even understand a stock price work. You’re showing me a a number. Well, why can’t I just show you the price action? Why do I have to show you the percentage return? You could run that in two seconds. You could run that in two seconds if you needed to. But suffice it to say, Black Rock shareholders have done better than Invesco’s. But I’m making the point that even the dominant ETF franchise, it hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride in the last couple of years. I mean, without without getting into like a head-to-head comparison because that part’s not as interesting to me, just the ride itself. But here’s the point. QQQ is an incredibly successful product. one of the most successful ETF uh ETFs in the entire industry. It’s $376 billion in assets under management. This is an Invesco product. Huge. Um 45% of the cues is institutional assets and then 55% is retail investors or traders. Um it’s a 20% expense ratio. I saw Baluna speculate 20 base 20 base points, excuse me. Budy speculated it’s going to be the competitor, which will be IQQ from the Black Rock iShares franchise could be 12 basis points. So, here’s my question to you. How much of that $376 billion is actually at risk if Black Rock’s competing product is a 40% discount to the granddaddy Triple Q product? It’s a great question. So, also I saw that State Street is now getting into the game. So, a little bit of background here. I’ll answer your question. Um, I do wonder if there’s like a lot of behind the scenes relationships going on here that we don’t know about. has got to be because there’s no reason why Invesco is the only one to own the NASDAQ 100 or like tech stocks. I’m using air quotes. They have a license. Did they have a license that ran out? So, um the NASDAQ 100 the Q’s are what 18 basis points. I asked chat I said uh how much money does Invesco actually net on QQQ? Because there’s like a lot of interesting stuff going on in here. So, this is an old UIT structure. Remember, this has been reported on many times. Okay. Yes. So, so here’s from Claude. The punch line. Invesco built the third largest ETF in the world with $400 billion in AUM for 26 years pocketed almost nothing from it. All because of how the original 1999 UI licensing deal was structured. The NASDAQ got paid $500 million a year to let them use the index. BNY got $109 million to be the trustee. And Invesco sponsored the whole thing essentially as a loss leader that drove brand recognition and bought flows into their other products. Now they finally monetize it but they had to cut the fee. Okay. So like there’s all sorts of they they have to spend a certain amount of marketing like it’s a whole it’s a whole convoluted thing. So to answer your question how much how much is at risk here? So there’s two wait for I have a different question now. Yeah. So something must have happened where a time limit ran out. Maybe there was some exclusivity on the NASDAQ 100 for an ETF that is now no longer exclusive or maybe it’s about to run out maybe. Because to your point, why is there so much motion right now? Yeah. Yeah. I probably have looked I probably should have looked into that. That’s okay. So, is there a relation? So, is Black Rock is Black Rock licensing the NASDAQ 100 or is it creating just a a competitor that’s going to be its own index? You can’t use the term NASDAQ. I think they have to be and I don’t think they would bother doing Q’s, two Q’s in the ticker. I don’t see Black Rock as trying to do something like semideceptive. I feel like they would just pay the freight. All right, so there’s an obvious there’s an obvious black and white answer that you and I don’t know about right now. But let me answer your question is are the cues at risk? So number one, no, because of think about the embedded gads in here in taxable accounts anyway. If you own the Q’s, you’re up a lot of money. So nobody’s going to be selling. Not everyone. Okay. Nobody is going to be selling the Q’s because they pay 18 basis points in buying the IQQ to pay 12. Now, however, however, new money and big money and non-taxable big money, why would you not save six basis points in fees? So, is is the moat has the moat been penetrated? It could be eight basis points. Has the moat been penetrated? Yes, most definitely. Wait, I’ll do you one better. What about for uh taxable for What about for tax loss harvesting? the ability to are you able to swap between triple Q and IQQ if they and IQQ if they’re both mimicking the same index. This is not tax advice, but think about all the all the institutional non-taxable dollars. Yeah, they’re fee Why wouldn’t they save six basis points if it’s if there’s no tax impact? Yeah, we saw we saw something similar. IMG, is that where you’re going? I was going to say EMG instead of EM. So IMG took the crown and it’s huge now. Yeah. And that’s a shitty asset class. But um for about 12 years, EM was the first thing people thought of when you said emerging markets. It was like the default. It was like Q-Tips, right? Like if you said emerging markets, people thought EM. Yeah. And then EMG came along with a lower basis point and it it’s bigger. Is it now bigger than EM? It’s 136 billion to 25 billion. But the pick the punch line here is that this was self-cannibalization. Those are both iShares products. Yes. They wanted to capture more of the institutional. So because here’s the thing with basis point fees. If you’re trading, you want the liquidity of triple Q right now. You don’t care about the annual basis point fee. You ain’t going to be in it for an annual period of time. You’re not paying it. Right. Right. Right. So you and and think of all the derivative products that are built on top of Triple Q. all the 2x long, 2x short, inverse, all the options trading that takes place based on triple Q. It’s an it’s like an extremely important part of the the solar system that is the stock market. So for that reason, I think the moat is somewhat defensible. But like so here’s the question, where are the assets? Which half of the QQQ ownership is more susceptible? the institutional half or the retail half. It depends which institutional half. The trading half. No, they’re staying with the cues because of the liquidity. The hedge the hedge the hedge funds will stay with trading cues at least at least at first. I think that’s right because they they would they want the daily liquidity more than anything else. Is that why? Yeah. They need to move in and out of it in size. Okay. And they’re hedging it. They could use futures to hedge it. like it’s it’s valuable to them for more than just the they don’t care about the basis points. I don’t know enough about market structure to understand the differences in liquidity depth because these it’s underlines at the end of the day but whatever over my skis there. Um but this is interesting. So I’m sure I’m sure there’s a pattern that expired or something. It’s got to be something with you have two great guests to talk about this with coming up on uh the compound and friends this week. So we’ll we’ll leave we’ll leave it there and you could bring you could pick it back up. All right, let’s do um let’s do topic two. Okay. Oh my god. All right. Um this is this is an interesting market. As we we keep saying, an interesting market, a weird market. Rob Anderson from Ned Davis Research. The benefit from buying winners and the drag from buying losers has rarely been greater. The magnitude of return dispersion for the S&P 500 stocks is more than five standard deviations above the long-term average only higher following the time crash, the GFC, and COVID reopening. And what’s so interesting is that this is happening um in a period of heightened volatility, but like correlations have not gone to one. Not even close. Not even close. Yeah. Last week we were talk we were talking about um how 75% of the decline has come from the Mac 7 this year. So I asked Chart Kid like, “Hey, what if if if 75% of the market decline is coming from the MAG 7, what’s on the other end of the barbell? Like what’s holding the market up?” So he he made me two pretty charts. John, let’s go to the cap loss first, the red bars. So $2 trillion has has come out of the MAG 7. Josh, where did this $2 trillion go? Oh god, it went into the best stocks in the market. Of course. Of course it went into the It literally did. I’m not even joking. It went it went into Exxon and Chevron and it went into pharmaceutical stocks, biotechs, went into uh the stuff that’s going off people are doing. Josh, you sitting down right now? Yeah. Hold on to your face. Previous chart. Look how pretty this is. So Matt charted, he did a bubble chart showing the MAG 7 stocks. They’re waiting at the start of the year, how much they’ve ripped out of the S&P 500 year to date. And then he looked at the other 492. So the four the max 7 plus Broadcom I guess is is this is what it is. But look at the other

  1. Isn’t this nuts?

Wait, they’re uh contribution to year-to-date return. So they are holding the they’re holding the market up. Yes, Josh. And there was this talk for years chart off for years people were like and thank god we were batting this away. Not saying that we could have foreseen this. I definitely wouldn’t have predicted this. The market is so concentrated when the leaders go the rest of the market go with it. And the opposite has happened. It’s amazing. No, we said no. Every time we said We said 40% chance. 40% at minimum. No, but uh the the big thing was like these stocks are too big to not take the market down. And that was better. Yeah. True. Until the other stocks are the beneficiaries of the outflows from the stock. And I know you hate this that I’m a where does the money go guy, but I think I’ve been vindicated today. And you can you can extend an not an apology, but like wow, maybe they’re you’re on to something. Maybe people don’t just go to cash in their account. They actually buy new stocks. I mean, Josh, give me give me this much that it could be true. I’ll give you this much. Let me take the other this much. If the market gaps down 1.5% at the open, where did the money go? Temporarily into a money market only to come back into the next wave of leadership stocks, right? Yeah, that’s how it works. All right. So, um, I’ve I’ve only ever seen that. I’ve never seen anything other than that. Furthermore, I asked Matt for a chart. All right. So, what literally is holding the market up. Next chart, please. So, this is some great stuff in here. So, naturally, it’s Exon Mobile adding 30 basis points or 29 to be precise to the to the S&P. And then it’s Walmart. And dude, this blew my face right off my body. Micron. Yeah, Micron has added. So, do you know how big Micron is? It’s so much bigger than I thought. Is it like 250? Okay, that’s what I said this morning. I said it was a $200 billion stock. Yeah, it used to be in October. Now it’s 430. Get the out of here. Really? My god, it’s a $430 billion stock. Put it in the Dow so I can call the top. Wait, can you put that chart back up? I love this. So, look at the other. for for people listen for people listening not not watching uh these are the top 20 contributors to this year’s S&P 500 return which is not a good return but these are the stocks holding the market up to Michael’s point um after Micron you have Chevron J&J applied materials SanDisk Caterpillar Costco Intel GE Vernova Lamb Research Corning Kico Phillips or now Kico Western Digital Ka Merk, Seagate, Verdive, Lockheed, um, all Halo, like very obviously Halo. None of them are there, uh, you can chart off. There’s no ambiguity. Every one of these companies physical infrastructure. These are not asset light businesses. They don’t sell software or information. They’re not in the data game. These are right like these are the definition of heavy assets. And low obsolescence. Many of those companies have been in business for a hundred years. Many, many, many on that list. Ben did to to this point, Ben did a really great post um called Bottom Fishing. I guess this was last Thursday and he was just talking about like the nature of the stocks that are down and how like like and how much they’re down. And I think you and I said one of the weirdest parts about the current environment is the the types of stocks that are down this year are the stocks that are popular with retail. The stocks that people are individual people are less likely to own the types of stocks that we just talked about. Dude, look at Tesla. Like Tesla is getting whacked hard. Look at Yeah. Here are the beatings. Adobe, Salesforce, Coreweave, Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, Ally Financial, Capital One, Visa down 20%. Mastercard, American Express down 22%, Robin Hood down 54%, Coinbase down 60, Block down 80, Nike down 75, Walt Disney down in Do you know, Michael, that Walt Disney is in a 550% draw down. Target down 55%. Josh Meta 27, Microsoft, Netflix, these are the stocks people own. They’re all down. When did Palunteer peak? I’m going to say November. Nailed it. Freaking November, dude. In retail world, that’s a long time ago. It’s forever. No, you can’t do it. If you bought a stock because it was going up and it stopped going up 5 months ago, you can’t be in it. All right. So, absent the war, assuming that the the current market still existed, absent the war, this is a story that is not getting any attention really. throw up this value versus growth chart. So the spread between the total index, the Russell 3 value versus growth, value has outperformed growth in the first quarter by the widest margin since

  1. Dude,

let’s light this candle. Nobody’s talking about it. Well, I’ll tell. You want to know why nobody’s talking about it? Yeah, it’s the war. But go ahead. Cuz what you said earlier, rebalancing. No. Fool me once, can’t get fooled again. Yeah, they How many times have we seen this? Yeah. Wait, put the chart back up. Can you see any consecutive quarters where it continues? Yeah. For what? Once. Yeah. Look at But look how many more consecutive quarters there are. These runs in in growth stocks. Yeah. So, how many how many of these value sucker rallies are people going to Right. um lose their money from where they just say, “Oh, I’m not doing that again.” Right. You’re not gonna you’re not gonna trick me again into buying the 10 PE stocks. That’s why. Yeah. And I think I think this has legs. I really do. So you So wait a minute. So you think we could go again Q2 value out performance? Yeah. All right. Now, I don’t think it’s I don’t think it’s going to necessarily the same where it’s like value upgrowth down. Maybe it is, but yeah, I think it’s continue. Okay. What’s this last one? I also think I also think you know what we we can skip this. You know what’s interesting also, Josh? A lot of this the reason why the market isn’t working just at like a high level is the transition from asset light to asset heavy and the pressure that’s coming for cash flows and margins. But it’s funny because and and this makes total sense. These companies are being penalized. They’re spending too much money. The beneficiaries, the semiconductors, these stocks are still working bigly. Yeah. And semiconductors are part of the AI trade, but they’re physical, right? They’re halo. So, the AI trade is not just one trade. It’s the spenders versus the spendees, the recipients. The recipients. Yes. Um, all right. Next topic. Jamie Diamond’s annual letter to shareholders. Uh, we’ve talked about this. Is this the new Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett letter? I think it is. I think so. It’s 48 pages. I don’t know if I have time for this. There’s a lot of charts though. It’s not like 48 pages of reading. Is the tone Did he say anything that he doesn’t always say? I Well, I guess what I’m asking is like the is his stature. He’s not a pure investor. He’s a CEO, but you’re the CEO of a bank. You are making asset allocation decisions like by default. Is his stature and his longevity and his place in running the biggest bank in the world. It’s a 227 year old bank. Yeah. Like, has he earned that level of investor attention? No. Or will there never be another Warren Buffett for reasons that have nothing to do with Jaime Diamond or any shortcomings that JP Morgan may have? Yeah. There there are tens, hundreds of thousands of people that read the Warren Buffett letter every year. Nobody’s reading this. Millions. I would say millions around the world translated into Asian languages. Yeah. I would say by comparison, nobody is reading Jamie Diamond. Could it Could it ever get if he stays there for another 10 years? Could it get to that point? No. If JP Morgan held an annual shareholder day in an auditorium somewhere in Manhattan, would people from all over the world come to see him on stage? No. Right. I don’t think so either. No chance. But for me, Yeah. No, it’s great. It’s good stuff. For me as a shareholder, this sort of is at that level now. I think it’s this. It’s Larry Frink Black Rock because these things have like major impact on my business. I need to understand what these guys are saying because I’m in the financial services world. But to your point, somebody working in Silicon Valley probably doesn’t give a damn what Jamie Diamond has to say. No. Or not everybody there, I should say. Okay. So, I agree with you. That being said, this is one hell of a publication. And not just because I’m a shareholder. I just I get a lot out of um looking through it. Here’s the first chart I wanted to show you. The yellow line is the earnings per I mean I’m squinting myself. The yellow line is the uh earnings per share. Uh I think the most important thing here though is that blue dotted line running across. That’s the return on tangible common equity. So the way to think about this is it’s it’s not really a measure of profitability like an earnings per share or a net income number. It’s a it’s a measure of the efficiency which with which they convert dollars to to profitability. So what what tangible common equity does is it strips out what this measure does is it strips out um goodwill from you know like accounting related stuff where they make an acquisition and they record a certain amount of goodwill blah blah blah. This just takes the hardcore uh chart off. This just takes the hardcore activities of the bank itself, the lending, the net interest margin, um the capital raise. How’s the business doing? The investment banking. I mean, it’s the point the point is the business is unbelievable. 2025, another year of ROCE at 20%. And then just for fun, I wanted to look back at their competitors. Wells Fargo is like 14%. So, not as efficient. Um, Bank of America 15, City is like seven or eight, but there’s all sorts of asterisks with that because they’ve been restructuring for 48 years. Um, let’s put up this next chart. Just stock total return analysis. They’re going back to this date, not to cherrypick. It’s um I think they’re just trying to show you uh they’re trying to show you the year 2000, but then that 2004 to 2025 is relevant. That’s when Bank One merger took place, which brought Jamie Diamond into JP Morgan Chase. So, he was running Bank One and this is I think there’s a guy named Harrison was the CEO at JP Morgan Chase and this is how Diamond effectively got bought out but took over the parent, right? Um, look at these returns. It’s insane. It’s It’s completely insane, right? Um, so if you just look at like look at one, five, and 10 for for the bank versus the financials index. Yeah. I mean, it’s insane. 20 versus 15 for 5 years. 20 versus 13 over 10 year period. Are you kidding me? Right. So, Diamond is not one of these people who like loves the sight of himself on camera and can’t wait to run his mouth and just talk and talk and talk with very little to back it up. There’s a lot of there’s a lot of people working in finance, especially in the investment side. People run a a bond fund that’s returned 1% a year. They have opinions on everything under the sun, political, technology, like, you know, this is a guy that literally delivers for shareholders on every time frame. And yeah, he’s opinionated. He has opinions about what’s best for America, what’s best for New York City. Should people work from the office? Like, he has opinions, but let’s look at what he’s actually accomplished before we dismiss it as, oh, here’s another billionaire running his mouth of all. No, no, no, no. This guy is delivering for millions of people around the world, shareholders, employees, customers. All right. Uh, tangible book and average stock price per share. I mean, it speaks for itself. If you’re listening and not watching, I’m not sure how to describe this, but it is extraordinarily up and to the right. This is the assets. So, they call this next chart assets entrusted to us by our clients. Um, look at this uh evolution from 2005 to 2025. The the dark blue is basically uh client assets and it’s just remarkable how large this bank has gotten. Yeah. And uh everybody can see these charts if you go to JP Morgan’s website and look for the the letter, but we’re talking about like a a $40 trillion bank. Well, you know what? the assets under custody $41 trillion. It it’s all the part of the same story. JP Morgan has been the biggest beneficiary of one of the greatest booms in in the history of capitalism in terms of all of these people with $30 million, $100 million. JP Morgan has won that race. But I also want to say it’s not just they didn’t just win by winning. They won by not stumbling. and then picking up the pieces from those who did they were able to I think they bought Washington Mutual Bear Sterns and one other one other uh bomb in the financial crisis. They picked up uh First Republic incredible franchise. They picked that up for almost nothing. Once again, that was only three years ago. like they have along the way as other players have blown up JP Morgan with the fortress balance sheet the relentless focus on risk management the willingness to say no to business that they don’t think is worth the risk it’s not just about how great they are at winning it’s how great they are at not losing well and do you think that’s so Buffettesque could he have done this at city maybe that was so maybe that’s too too tall a task but at a different bank I I I don’t think so and I also I don’t think he could have grown Bank One into what JP Morgan is. There is something magical about a bank that’s been around for over 200 years and is so endemic to not just the banking system, but like the pipes of how everything works. And uh it’s just so important, not just in America, but around the world. So, I think he needed to be in the seat at this company to have become Jamie Diamond. It’s a great question. We we could um we could skip over everything. I just want to do one more of these. Give me the Fortress balance sheet chart. This is the most important to me. So, I’m in this stock for I don’t know, it could be decades by now. I mean, I I was buying this when they were selling it off on the London Whale. I don’t know if you remember that. You might have been in elementary school. 2010 I was I don’t know. whatever that was. Um, but this is the this is the answer. People like, “Oh, uh, such and such, uh, firm just downgraded shares of JP Morgan from a buy to a neutral.” And then somebody asked me like, “Oh, what do you do about this if you’re an investor?” If you’re an investor, you laugh hysterically. Oh, okay. Oh, it’s a it’s an equal weight, not an overweight. Okay, that’s great. I’ll be sure to remember that the next time I’m on Jeopardy. Thanks. Thanks for sharing. So, I don’t sell because the fortress balance sheet is the point. It’s the stock’s not going to go up every year. Guess what? I don’t need it to. Um, dividends we invested, too. Real balls to the wall with All right, let’s uh let’s let’s quickly do on the opposite end of the spectrum. Let’s do OpenAI. I don’t I don’t know if this has been not a fortress balance sheet. I don’t know if this has been under reportported. That’s maybe sounds ridiculous, but also I think it kind of has based on the scale. They just completed a deal to raise $122 billion from investors at an $852 billion valuation. Do you did you know that? Yes, but only because I only because I read the same article you read. It’s a lot. You know what? You know what it is? It’s the war. The war is just sucking up all the oxygen because otherwise this would be this would be all we’re talking about. Massive. So, they raised uh Amazon agreed to invest $50 billion. There’s contingencies there. Soft Bank uh and Nvidia each put in 30 billion. Sure, why not? Oh, 35 billion of Amazon is contingent on OpenAI going public or reaching the technological model. Yes. The contingent is like is there actually stock for sale because they’re going public? Okay, so Claude made this chart for me. I said like how big is OpenAI’s raise compared to the biggest raises in the history of of uh IPOs. So there’s nothing even close. The next the biggest one prior to this was Saudi Aramco raised $25 billion. Alibaba raised

But you know what this is like? Show me Michael Jackson’s record sales compared to the rest of the Jackson 5. Pretty much. This is the most insane thing. So they just raised $122 billion. Yeah. Um Okay. From some very important strategic partners too. It should be pointed out. Not dingalings. Biggest corporations, biggest investors. So, in the interest of time, we’ll skip over some of this uh there was an article in the journal and but but what I want to talk about is um is some of the decisions that they’re making before that though. So, Anthropic put out announcement last night, Google Broadcom Partnership. They said demand from Claude, so this is Anthropic. Demand from Claude customers has accelerated in

  1. Our run rate revenue has now surpassed $30 billion. up from approximately 9 billion at the end of
  2. When we announced our series G fundraising in February, we shared that over 500 business customers were spending over a million dollars on an annualized basis. Today, that number exceeds a thousand, doubling in less than two months. Now, the way that Claude or Anthropic has calculated their revenue is a little bit weird. They’re booking the cloud revenue and then booking that as a cost of goods sold, which seems like double counting in a bizarre way, but whatever. If it’s not 30 billion, if it’s 22 billion

because these are Amazon cloud customers that are accessing Claude via that via that relationship. So, it’s a bit bizarre their accounting methodology, but whatever. It’s it’s so much money so fast for comparison. So, let’s just say that all right, $30 billion annualized revenue run rate, and let’s say it’s probably going to be 40. I don’t know where it stops or slows down. Charles Schwab did $27 billion in the last 12 months in revenue. McDonald’s that McDonald’s did $27 billion in revenue in the last 12 months and they have barely, it’s hard to say they’ve barely just begun, but I don’t know what inning these companies are in. It still seems very very early. uh open it. Seen through that prism. Seen through that prism. The selloff in enterprise software makes sense because these dollars to spend on this stuff don’t just materialize out of nowhere. They have to come from somewhere. This is coming from somewhere. So, um Chat GPT uh said its ad pilot program hit $100 million in annualized revenue after six weeks. So, that could be 200 million like the next month. All right. So here’s so so the the news this week and there’s there’s been a lot of news. So there is a podcast called TBPN. Yeah. It’s like a tech it’s like a tech I’ve I’ve seen a few episodes. They get great guests. It’s a tech podcast. I only It’s a daily podcast where they cover tech. I only became aware Now listen I’m not in the tech world so whatever. But I only became aware of this podcast literally two weeks, two or three weeks ago when they had Travis on formerly of Uber. I listened to the first 15 minutes. I was like, “Wow, that’s a big guess. How who are these guys?” So what I didn’t like look into it and then I woke up to news yesterday, the day before that Open AI is buying this company for about $100 million. And here’s what’s here’s what Ben Thompson from Stratechery had to say about this purchase. A few necessary disclosures. First, I have appeared on TBPN a few times a few different times and I assume I will again. Second, more importantly, I would for the record accept low hundred of millions of dollars for the strategy plus family podcast. Um, I would certainly want the money and cash, not OpenAI stock. Okay, indeed, this deal makes that distinction all the more important because I honestly don’t know what in the world OpenAI is doing here. This isn’t a deal that is going to make or break OpenAI’s fortune. The company just raised $122 billion. And it’s not like TBPN is going to be using up scarce compute. Rather, it’s simply a deal that makes no sense. And when you put it in such basic terms, it makes you consider how many things OpenAI has done over the last few years that make no sense. And here’s the cudigraph. If Twitter is a clown car that fell into a gold mine, that’s what Zuckerberg famously called Twitter. Open AI might be the short bus at the end of the rainbow. There’s supposed to be a pot of gold there, but it never quite seems to materialize. The colors are fading, and worst of all, there just isn’t much evidence that anyone knows what they are doing or that there is any sort of overarching plan. So, Sam Altman was just featured big time in the New Yorker. There’s just so much smoke. There’s so many weird things going on at OpenAI. A lot of turnover, but we don’t actually know what the dollar figure paid for this podcast is. We don’t really know. Let’s assume it’s $100 million, 5050 stock, and cash. Let’s Okay, fine. So, they wrote a $50 million check. What is that? Like uh an AI engineer salary for for 12 months. Who Ben’s point? Why they doing but they’re pay Well, so I have a good answer for that. I don’t know Ben personally. I’m a big fan of Stratechery as most people are. Uh he’s terrific writer, but whenever somebody gets bought out that’s in roughly the same lane, there’s always a little bit of professional jealousy. Of course. Or even if you look down on that show, if you’re Ben and you’re like, “My content’s better than theirs. They just happen to do a daily live stream. How long could they keep doing that for? Will the audience keep showing up for that? Once they’re once they’re owned by Open AI, is it just going to become a a chat GPT cheerleader show? Uh blah blah blah blah blah. What do they really buy? What if the two partners on screen, one of them hates the other one, etc., etc., etc.” Okay. But a lot of that boils down to like why didn’t they buy me out? Why did they buy us? That was my first reaction. What are your thoughts? Would be perfect for opening. Imagine. Yeah. My life’s ambition is to go work for uh Sam Altman. So now I’m going to tell you something. I don’t watch that show. I’ve seen it. They do. It’s not for us. It filled a hole perfectly. We have CNBC. We’re investors. We’re traders. We’re professional financial advisers, asset managers. We have the daily go-to. All right, these people are speaking my language and it’s you know where it is. It’s all day. If you don’t have cable now, you have the clips on YouTube. You’re comfortable with it. You know the people, you know the voices, you know the structure, the format of the shows. It just works. Where do you get that? If you’re in tech, it’s allin podcast. you have to listen to those guys or um you sit on Twitter all day which sucks. It’s the most soul sucking, miserable, depressing environment that exists. Where do you like actually get daily tech market commentary? It’s not Wall Street. So, it was a great idea they had. They made it look like CNBC. They have tickers and what’s on the bottom on the bottom of the screen. Yeah. And they won. But if I were a competing tech creator, whether I had a podcast or a blog, I would be pissed. But the question is, what did OpenAI buy? Because these people, these guys were very No, I know. They bought a PR machine. They bought an But but they’re not going to do that. Like the whole point I think, right? You don’t believe. I mean, Sam gets mad because uh because the guy at New Yorker magazine shreds his whole life, spends 11 months uh investigating him and makes him look like a scumbag. You don’t think he wants to have his own PR outlet with a million people watching where he gets to tell his side? Sure. Everything is content now. Everything is media. There is no business. It’s not a media business where they’re going to build their own with the person. You imagine the personalities there. But it’s still weird like cuz these guys ostensibly, see I said it, are still going to produce the same content that they do on a daily basis. They’ll talk tech. What does this do for OpenAI? I think Sam gets I think Sam gets to jump in the seat. I think Sam gets to put friends of the company uh whatever. How about this? How about this? Doesn’t matter. The fact is this matter and you’re wrong. No, it doesn’t. NO, IT DOESN’T. EVERYBODY HAD THE SAME REACTION is what are they doing? Because they don’t know what I know. Oh, yeah. You know a lot more than Ben Thompson. When was OpenAI’s worst moment in the last two years? We know when Sam was on the podcast. When Sam was on a podcast that he doesn’t control. Now, why was he on that show? Because he had things that he wanted Silicon Valley and big tech and politicians and everyone paying attention. He needed a a forum to say certain things. And that was the forum that was available. Sorry. That was the forum that was available to him. Now that’s no longer the case. He if he owns his own media, his own way now of getting out the open AI message that he wants to get out. I’m not saying he’s going to turn the show into an infomercial. I’m saying if and when he has news to communicate, they’re going public this year. Okay, fine. That’s what you ask the question. What are they doing? That’s what they’re doing. Be that as it may, let’s assume that he will hop on the show from time to time to promote the company. The knee-jerk reaction that everybody watching was, “Oh my god, this makes no sense. What other bigger decisions are they making that also make no sense?” I agree with you. That was the reaction. My reaction is different. My reaction is, oh, look, another person just like Elon Musk was a person who somehow has a company worth a trillion dollars before it even goes. Look at this idiot. What What in the world is he doing? This guy who has a trillion dollar business. Okay, you might be right. Who has partnerships with Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft? What’s this guy doing now? You might be right. All right, my reaction. I’m going to make the case for biotech stocks. Let’s do it. Remember like how shitty healthcare was acting all of last year and then I don’t know the story. I’m sure you do, but uh they’re working. So, first chart is XBI. This is the equal weighted version. The next chart is IBB. This is the cap weighted version. The IBB has already done a lot better. Dude, this looks great. All right, but then I divided one by the other. And I think I like the XBI more. This is XBI divided by IBB. Seems like there’s room to run there. Not that you have to pick one versus the other. Maybe you do both. Maybe you do neither. But XBI looks very good. Very, very. Can I ask you, can you put that last chart up? If you um No, I guess I guess just give me the total return level on uh XBI. If you wanted to handicap this by a fundamental to say that spike in 2021 was more speculative than this spike, what fundamental would you would you use? Oh, I don’t even know how these things are valued, honestly. Well, they’re not valued on earnings because but cash flow I guess on the XBI this would be less important. Maybe on the IBB you might want to know some valuation metric but it doesn’t maybe it’s price to sales. I couldn’t tell you the first but I but that my point is like to feel good about buying it at the same level it peaked at in 21. You’d probably want to know one more metric about the fundamentals today versus then. And I think if you did a a priced sales, which I’m sure you could do in two seconds, it’s way cheaper today than it was in in

Fine. All of that aside, this thing is acting great technically. It Yeah, I think you’re going to be right on this. It’s consolidating. 130 looks like the trigger on the upside. It looks really good. We have a bunch of biotechs in our best stocks of the market list, uh Sean and I. And uh there are some really good charts in there. So, I I like the call. Let’s do mystery chart and then we’ll bounce out of here. What do you got? Oh, I won’t even give you a hint then. Oh, you’re joking. I’m joking. All right. It’s an individual stock and you are Oh, I do know this. It’s Netflix. You are involved. Look at you. You’re really good at this. How did you know? Uh cuz I look at Netflix’s chart every day. I don’t own it anymore, but I’m thinking about buying it again. All right. Before we move on to the next chart, I’ll put that back. What do you make of this? Uh, it’s about to explode. It’s acting very well. I think 120 is the next resistance. I think you make an easy 10 11 points right now. Uh, if and when it gets above 100 and stays there, is there anything stopping it from getting back to 120, which is where it was trading before they announced the the Warner Brothers deal that is no longer going to happen? Speaking of fundamentals, this company is dripping. Forget about the onetime cash infusion. They just raised prices. Nobody’s going to blink. Stocks is acting lovely. Uh, relative strength looks great. They have every live sporting event you want, including new ones that I didn’t even know existed. They’re involved with every league. Uh, yeah. Well, let’s do so. Okay. B. So, basically, I’m just showing you the stock versus the earnings. Yeah. This trailing 12 months, fully diluted earnings per share. This thing is a screature to me. Yeah. So, I don’t I own some I don’t own enough of it. I think I have one more. This is the technical. So JC would have yelled at me for asking you the technical read on the price chart. Oh, it looks great. Look at this. Yeah, it looks good. So where does the stop go? Held the gap. Say it for everyone who’s watching. 90. Like the most obvious the most obvious in the world. Yeah. Um you risk nine points to make 20 points. Yeah. Is Is this one of the biggest no-brainers in the market right now? It looks very good. Looks very good on a risk reward basis, right? Yeah, it looks very good. Let’s wrap up, guys. Thank you so much for watching. Thank you for listening. We love you. We appreciate you. And I want to let you know tomorrow is Wednesday, which means an all new edition of my favorite show, Animal Spirits with Ben Carlson and Michael Batnik. Later on, we’ll do Ask the Compound with Duncan and Ben. And then Michael will return with an all new edition of The Compound and Friends on Friday. And uh he’s got some great guests and you’re going to love the show. Thank you guys again. Yeah, we’ll talk to you soon.