Spacex Goes Public Claudes Mythos Release And The Us Data Center Delay

TITLE: SpaceX Goes Public, Claude’s Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246 CHANNEL: Peter H. Diamandis DATE: 2026-04-11 ---TRANSCRIPT--- SpaceX is going public with a $2 trillion valuation. It’s the beginning of the IPO wars.

The stepping stones are really, really clear now. Starlink gets you into space profitably. Then the data centers, then you get to the moon, refueling in space, then you get to Mars. Anthropic overtakes open AI in terms of total ARR. That has got to hurt. Super intelligence is not paying for the singularity. They kind of bet the consumer would grow faster sooner, but they just they’re wrong. Mythos Anthropic’s next flagship model. It’s too powerful to release. We’ve never seen a model like this before. We officially have models that are smart enough to break out of their environments and then apologize for it. We’re there. We arrived to the future. Now, that’s a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen. Everybody, welcome to Moonshots, your number one podcast in exponential technologies. everything going on in AI in the world around us. It’s an extraordinary time to be alive. Uh this podcast in particular is here to help you stay positive about the future, optimistic and hopeful. Uh there’s so much going on. It’s really tough sometimes because the speed is so extraordinary. Uh we want to give you an overview of what’s happened in the last two weeks cuz we’ve been offline. Why? Hate to say this, I actually took a vacation. I was in Morocco in the Sahara. Um, and it’s great to be back here with my new I had to come off a ski slope to make this episode. I appreciate I appreciate that. And we’re going to catch up for everybody, all of our fans. We’re catching up on episodes. So, get ready for a flurry because there’s a lot that’s been going on here with my extraordinary moonshot mates, Sel Ismael, straight off the ski slopes. See, where are you skiing today? I’m in Kirkwood in Lake Tahoe. Uh, it was Milan ski week off, so we took a few days and just got them out here. DB2 back in the saddle again. Yep, back in the saddle. We have 200 speakers tomorrow at the MIT Media Lab and uh today we had 60 startups pitching here in our first floor and just a lot going on. Amazing. I I’m so sad not to be there with you. And our resident genius, Alex Wezner Gross. Alex, good to see you in your regular haunt. Good to be back in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Yeah, fantastic. All right, a lot is going on. Uh we’re going to be covering a whole host of subjects in the AI world, in the space world, in the abundance world. One of the segments we’re going to be bringing to you on a regular basis is proof of abundance. We really want to keep you positive on what’s going on in the world. Sometimes if you’re watching the Crisis News Network, uh what I call CNN, uh it can get you down. Our job here is to keep you informed and bring you back up. But before we do that, Salem, uh looks like you made some uh some news. Here you are cover of India Today. What’s this all about? So I was in at the India today conclave. This is the biggest kind of news magazine in India and they had a bunch of speakers and so the image is photoshopped. But you got to understand the context and the surrealness of the world we live in today. So in front of me is Elon’s mother. Next to me is Laura Loomer, the MAGA conspiracy theorist person. Uh then there’s the Israeli ambassador and they’ve put the Iranian foreign minister next this they literally took me back in the speaker room and they’re saying, “Hey, come and meet these two guys.” I’m like, “I don’t want to be any of that. The Israeli guys going to pull out a gun or something and there’s going to be an assassination attempt.” I think the cover and then a Bollywood star, you know, and a bunch of business people in in the world. What do these people have to have in common? I think it’s I think it’s a reflection of the insanity of the world that we live in today. I think that’s what you can read from this cover and I think it’s kind of a commentary on the madness of of the I hope I hope you represent the breakthroughs and not the breakdowns. I I did I was I was very much on the hey we’ve got major things happening and we need to kind of organize differently for it etc. It was a great conversation. All right. All right. Fantastic. Uh let’s jump into our first story. It’s SpaceX is going public with a $2 trillion valuation. Uh, and it’s the beginning of the IPO wars. So, uh, let’s catch everybody up. Hopefully, you’ve been hearing this. Uh, full disclosure, I’m an investor in SpaceX from the earliest days. So, SpaceX is, uh, is pricing itself right now at about a $2 trillion target valuation, raising $75 billion. Uh, the largest IPO of its kind. Um, interesting enough guys, uh, you know, one would think that the value of SpaceX is due to its rocket launches or maybe recently the merger with XAI, but the vast majority of the value today is Starlink. 75 to 80% of the target valuation is due to Starlink, about 15 to 18% due to launch services, 5% for NASA services, and the X AI and X related revenues, it’s all in potential in the future. Um Dave, any thoughts? Well, the stepping stones, you know, Peter, you’ve been studying this for ever since we were in school together, so a long time, but the stepping stones are really, really clear now. you know, Starlink gets you into space profitably. Uh, then the data centers get you uh, you know, 50 ton and then 100 ton launches profitably. Then you get to the moon, then you start refueling in space, then you get to Mars. So, so it’s just so cool to see how Elon lines up the dots on these things. And, um, yeah, I don’t think it’s any great surprise. You know, Starlink is incredibly successful. It kind of surprised everybody. No one else thought of that being the the first move in the chess game and of course Elon two steps ahead. You know what’s crazy? This game plan has been tried numerous times before. So if you go back and you know I was early in the space days you go back to the late 80s early 90s. There was a company called orbital sciences was the hottest company in the launch business. Created the Pegasus and the Taurus launch vehicle. And because they had a launch capability, they launched something called Orbcom, which is was a small satellite messaging service from low Earth orbit. Uh, and it was their vision to have that be the revenue driver. And they didn’t pull it off. We had then the big that was called the little LEO. Then we had the big Leos, big Leos, the Iridium, uh, Teladic. Um, and those didn’t really make it. I mean, Aridium is kind of still around, but kind of walking. Let me ask you, Peter, you know more about this than anybody. Let me ask you, the idea of a reusable rocket being the breakthrough and cutting 90 95 and soon 99% of the cost. It seems so obvious in hindsight, but all these aerospace breakthroughs always seem obvious in hindsight because, you know, once you’re doing it a certain way, you’re like, “Hey, it works.” But it’s never obvious looking forward. But why why did it take so long? Yeah, it’s is it is it the weight of the fuel coming back down that everyone’s like, “Yeah, you can’t carry fuel up just to to retro rocket it back down or what?” I mean, what’s interesting is it’s been the holy grail. People have talked about it for the longest time. Back McDonald Douglas had a vehicle called the DCX, which was the first vertical takeoff, vertical landing capability, used a uh RL10 engine, I remember. And it was it was the great hope of getting there. You know, people are mistaken that uh you know, the cost of these vehicles is fuel. Turns out the cost of the fuel for a rocket is on the order of like a couple of percentage points, right? So, the fuel for a um you know, liquid oxygen you can get out of the atmosphere. Uh you know, hydrogen or kerosene, you know, is basically a fuel. Uh so it costs you less than a million dollars in fuel to launch a a Falcon 9. Um, and it’s now that we have the ability to actually with better materials, uh, better control systems, uh, and just scale makes this possible. You couldn’t actually build, uh, you know, fully reusable vehicles unless they got to a certain size and scale, which we have with Starship. So, there you go. Uh, you know, Dave, one other thing I want to just ask you about, check this out. uh the 2025 revenues for SpaceX. I’m excited about the IPO, right? Um yeah, you know, and it’s going to be one of the largest events in financial history, but the 2025 revenues for SpaceX were about 16 billion, 8 billion in profit. Pretty healthy margin, right? 50%. And it’s expected to double to 20 in 2026. Uh, so imagine 16 billion in in profits at a $ 1.75 trillion market cap. That means a price to revenue multiple of 56 and a PE ratio of 109. Mhm. What do you think? Yeah. You know, what do I think of that? Well, I think it’s all it’s all PEG ratio. It comes down to the growth rate. And a a company growing 100% year-over-year is worth 100 times earnings. It’s just or actually more than that 120 130. So the question is you know can you sustain that growth rate for five six seven years uh if you look at Elon’s projected launches per day launches per week uh and also you know his prediction that the global economy will grow 10x in 10 years uh this is dirt cheap if any of those things are true um but you know if if it if the growth stalls and it it’s growing 10% a year then it’s 10x overpriced so you just have to believe the vision but I think at this stage though uh the the Elon believers have invested in him over and over and over again and never at a loss. And so I mean I think at this stage it can’t go on forever. You know someone has to be the last guy holding the bag. But would you be would I bet against him? No way. Never. Ever. And everything he’s saying the math. Yeah. The math checks out. You know there’s no there’s nothing fundamentally wrong in the math. You know Alex would blow smoke on on that instantly if there’s anything wrong in the math. But there’s not. It’s just a question of execution.