Land Investing Masterclass 3 Hidden Treasures In India

Navi Mumbai International Airport make a project this may exceed product key develop a plan. See the advantage of Panvel in Mumbai 3.0. It is green field. Green field means we’re making it from scratch. So, do you recommend investing? Wait for the map to come out. Look at Niranjan Hiranandani sir. He became a billionaire through Forget Forget a city through one pin code. Powai alone made him a billionaire.

I believe in the Warren Buffett principle. If you invest in the raw material of any industry, you’ll always do well. The true raw material of real estate is land. When do you think the coastal road was first thought of? Oh, 50 years ago. 1963.

So, what a lot of people do is they go to Rajasthan, they buy random land. Through that, they become a farmer for the country.

South Mumbai is the richest part of Mumbai. Now, why has Alibaug seen the maximum growth in Maharashtra? It’s a mirror image of South Mumbai. One of our investors, say for example, bought a land worth 25 crores. Today, it’s 120 crores.

Again, I’m obsessed with this part of Mumbai. With this outskirt, the right side.

Hi Mayank, welcome to the Indian Business Podcast. Mayank, today I have a very specific agenda. You see, Gen Z has very high reluctance towards investing into real estate. Why? Because we have commitment issues. Rental yields in India are very low. And then, if you look at Dubai, the rental yields are far more significant. But then, after I met you, I started reading about agricultural land as an investment asset, and I started going deeper into it, and I found some fascinating stats. A couple of years, over a period of 10 years, it has appreciated to 1.5 to 2 crores per acre. Land appreciation was at 20x to 50x. 177 crores.

So, why should I not just buy stocks? A very wise man told me once, Mayank, if you invest in the raw material of anything, you’ll never be broke. You’ll always make money. So, real estate ka raw material land hai. And agricultural land here, which then gets converted to non-agricultural land. So, a lot of times people think that non-agricultural converted land is a raw material. It’s not. It’s a very big step to agricultural land.

It’s a kacha pura nation. We call it kacha jameen. But look, land is risky. I’m not going to lie, but more risk, more return. Land, according to me, should be held for minimum 10 years. I am a fundamental holder like that. A real estate cycle is typically 7 to 8 years. In India, the cycle is delayed because of the corruption. Today, what happens is my project is delayed by 1 year because some government officer didn’t want to give me permission. At a macro level, India is one of the countries where the cycle is not 7 to 8 years. It’s actually 10 to 12 years because everything is slow.

I’ll give you an example. In 2020, when the COVID hit, I sold one of my lands in Karjat. I sold that land to buy an office. Today, that office has given me a 2x. But now, if you see in 2020, that office was a foreclosure property in Lower Parel. I still have that office. Today, let me tell you that Karjat land would have been 6x. And my office has gone only 2x after buying the office in distress. But I still don’t regret it because at that time, I never knew that the holiday home trend will boom because of COVID, which is why Karjat did well, which is why Alibaug did well. I’m not God. Nobody is. If I’d held it for longer, 10 years, 15 years, you see the cycle. True delta. So, it’s very hard to time when to enter and when to exit.

The advantage of land is that sometimes it’s illiquid, so you can’t sell it. Now, I wish I didn’t get a buyer for my Karjat land in 2020. It would have been illiquid. So, sometimes illiquidity also is an advantage.

Step one, always invest excess into land. Let’s start with step number one. Disclaimer. Step-by-step process pehle, I’ll talk about regulatory due diligence and legal due diligence. So, apologies in advance, but it’ll be boring topic for a while, but just stay with me for 15 minutes. Let me just open this map for you. Now, this is a regional plan. Cities will have development plans. More developed is a little bit more intricate than this. Over the land where you get, like outskirts of cities, they’ll have regional plans. In layman terms, the rural areas will have more regional plans.

It’s created by the development authority, like the planning authority. Here it says final regional plan of Mumbai Metropolitan Region. The proposed land use this map will give you. MMRDA is the planning authority. So, you need to get that. This is the final map for this particular region. But various regions have various maps.

Say for example Ganesh wants to buy an agricultural land. He wants to buy a beautiful farmhouse. His agent takes him to this beautiful gaon here. And they go up with a kind of dark green, yellow one here. He comes, he drives here, and he sees this is right underneath the mountain. And this gut number 23, just a name to identify. You just survey the gut number 23 here. It’s a beautiful land. And you go ahead and buy this. This is forest zone. Dark green. So, now you’ve stuck with 5 acres of land that you can’t build anything on. 5 acres of beautiful land which is worth nothing, which looks beautiful because it is a forest to begin with.

Secondly, do you build it now? For example, Mandwa. The jetty land somewhere here. Pura ye pura sea and north of this map is fully sea. Ek aur map at the CRZ map. I can show you that as well. That will show which zones is in CRZ. So, you should avoid those zones. Construction restrictions are depending on the zone. Generally, it’s up to 500 m from the high tide line of the sea. There are various CRZ zones. As a blanket, stay away 500 m as a blanket. You don’t want to enter that whole loophole game. For example, this land that you see, land number one, main bilkul nahi lunga. Kyunki mereko pata hai CRZ one mein hoga. There’s a 80% chance this is CRZ one.

So, how I look at land, I don’t even visit land first. I don’t visit land. Counterintuitive. Mereko dekhna nahi land kitna sundar hai. I ask for all my data first. Zoning maps. Regulatory.

Can you give me a list? Number one, zonal certificate. Number two, I would want the saat bara. It’s a revenue record. Saat bara is not proof of ownership. It’s a revenue record. Then comes fair far, the mutation entries. Mayank sells land to Ganesh. It’s officially called fair far. 6-12 extract. Mayank sells land to Ganesh. Mutation ek number niklega. Aur usme we will explain the transaction. So, you’ll have to read multiple fair fars over the years to understand the flow of the title. Mota moti saat bara, fair far, zonal certificate, gut map. Gut ka shape matlab I’ll come to know the shape of the land. So, good book nakasha lana padega mereko office se.

Verify, it’s a mutation entry. What does mutation mean? It means change from one person to the other. So, for example, Mayank sells land to Ganesh. How will I sell the land to you? I’ll sell it to you. So, it’s clearly a sale deed document banega. Which is the actual transfer of ownership conveyance deed. Stamp duty or registration banega. We’ll get a title deed. These are revenue records for revenue purposes they were built. Remember lagan? The Britishers loved revenue. So, in 1879 Bombay land revenue code, they started the sat baras and all this, the revenue record of the entire villages. These documents now have become very important because they have so much record. Systematized over here our land because of this.

Sat bara is a revenue record. It talks about the occupied, gives you a lot of information about land ka size kya hai, land ka gut number kya hai. Gut number jaise yaha one dikh raha hai aapko. Survey number, gut number. Sat bara me kya dikhega? Number on the sat bara will tell you ki gut number do hai. So, you know ki ye two hai. Mereko yaha se pata hai two ki shape yaha hai because I have the regional plan.

Agar regional plan nahi hota ya man lijiye regional plan nahi bana hai ya village map nahi hai ya even worse, do ke do hisse ho gaye hai. Partition ho gaya hai dono bhaiyo ke beech me for XYZ reason. Aur mai ek half kharid raha hu. How will I know iska shape kya hai andar se? To us time jab survey hua hoga todne ke liye land ko, wo good book naksha me I understand ki shape kya hai. To kya ye har saal banta hai? Nahi, it depends. Jab change hota hai tab hota hai. Regional plan to once in a while banta hai. Regional plan can’t show all the hissas. This is more macro, more broad. Wo tutega aapke survey office me. Survey ke liye banda aayega, they’ll measure it and they’ll break it. Sat bara will also get separated.

I’m just giving you various scenarios that can go wrong. This is touching a pond. You get very excited that the pond touch hai. Maine kya bola tha set back? Hoga. Now, dekhiye jo ye land hai na, 249, it’s still okay. Another shape of the land touching the pond is still good. Set back bhi hua to itna jayega na mera. But agar ye length 249 ka sata hua tha pond se, then I would have lost my construction margin.

Sometimes, in fact, a lot of times I see this is a proposed road. Ye bani nahi hai road abhi. Jo dotted dikh rahi hai aapko? 227 bahut beautiful land hai. Next to a forest but not in forest. To greenery hai yaha. But you can’t buy this land kyuki yaha road jayega.

But isn’t that a great thing because then I can sell it to the government? You’ll not get the money that you think you would in hyper inflated areas. It sounds rosy. Ki government aapko itna paisa degi. What happens is in some places that make sense, but aap kabhi kharidoge nahi waisi jagah me. Aap kyu kharidoge? Wo to. Why would you buy in a remote place like that? These are hot areas. And hot may because the market rate is so much. The government is not going to pay you. Mai batata hu aapko. Yaha ready reckoner rate jo hai, which is the government circle rate, is around 4 lakh rupees per gunta. 40 guntas Let. R actually as a technical term. A R, R is a measurement. 40 Rs make an acre. The ready reckoner rate, which is the government circle rate, har jagah circle rate hota hai for apartments. Is here is 4 lakh rupees. The market rate of this land is 25 lakh rupees. The government is not going to pay you more than the 20. It’s already so inflated. And there are various formulas when the government acquires land from you. They look at the circle rate, then they look at last 3 years ka top 50% sale deeds hue hai. Achha, bahut sare sale deed cash me hote hai. So, the government ka jo assessment hai, the government might say ki mai aapko 2x ya 4x de dunga. But 4x of what? 4x would be of a sum government ka fair value hoga iska man lijiye 8 lakh rupee per R. 8 lakh ka 4x diya aapko. 32 lakhs. For example, but what if the market price is 40 lakhs today? Which my neighbor can give me. So, you have to see. It’s very nuanced. Never buy land unless you’re very very connected. Never buy land just to sell it to the government. Wo to luck ka game hai. Aap land kharid ke builder ko becho. Private me jao. Government me kyu ja rahe ho?

Set back bhi aayega road ka. Highway ban raha hai to 40 meter. Kya kaun sunega aawaz highway ki? Now, there’s a little fun hack that we have. For example, let’s look at there’s something known as the gauthan extension scheme. This is valid for Maharashtra. Gauthan were settlement areas where the villagers used to live in a cluster. Abhi for example, in Maharashtra there’s a gauthan extension scheme in this region. If I buy land that comes 500 meters within the gauthan boundaries, my FSI is massive. FSI is for how much I can build on the land. Abhi jo aapko man lijiye jo normal land hai na idhar, mereko basic FSI 0.1 milta hai usme. 0.1 means in layman terms mai kitna bana sakta hu. Agar land 10,000 square foot ka hai, I can build 0.1, 10%, so I can build 1,000 square foot on it. Generally, G1 zone me jo meri zone hai ye, yaha FSI 0.1 starting and then depends. Gauthan me mera starting hi one hai. So, 10 times more FSI I’m getting. If my land falls 500 meters from the gauthan extension boundaries. So, for example, for me I would buy this land blindly, number five. Mereko dekhna bhi nahi hai land. Mai kya karunga dekh ke? Because those things I can change. Khadda land me mitti dal do. The regulations, how do I change?

So, people love seeing land. I don’t like seeing land. I like seeing this. I look at land like a code. Aap kya dekhoge? It’s Thik hai, you see it. It’s good. You feel the vibes. That’s emotional way of looking at it. Gut number 13 is my favorite. I haven’t seen this land, but I know it’ll be great because gauthan ke baju me mereko FSI zyada milega. Premium bhar ke I can build 2.24 on it. Ek ek acre land ke upar mai sawa do ek acre bana sakta hu baad me. To ye land mai builder ko bech sakta hu na baad me. Land ki value uske use case me hoti hamesha. To yaha dekhiye upar hai port zone. Kya karoge? This was built for the ports. So isme kya hi karoge? So, you have to be very cautious. Ye bhi dotted ye bhi road aa rahi hai. To you can’t buy such lands. Ye ye land to beech me tut jayega. Ye forest hai. So, you have to be very very choosy.

So, this is basically gives you the idea of the zones. Basic idea of the zones, how the government, how the town planning authorities intend to grow the region, how to develop the region. Something like this I would personally like if I want a farmhouse is this gut number. It’s surrounded by forest, but it’s not in forest. So, this will have both the views.

So, check the zonal certificate. Check the regional plans. Sat bara check kariye. Fair far ya mutation entries check kariye. Good book maps check kariye to understand the shape of the land you’re buying in. Government survey hua hai ki nahi. Nahi hua hai to please get the survey done. It takes two to three months to get the government survey done. Ideally, you can’t check everything. Legal due diligence me time jayega. Regulatory you have an idea ki aap kitna build kar sakte hai, kya hai mota mota. Once you know ki regulatory it fits my bill, the land is good. Correct zone me hai.

Then you finally go meet the farmer or the seller. Then I would meet him. Ki I want to buy this land. Iska use case hai. I see growth. And after this I’ll also tell you fundamentally how to select an area according to me. Zyada rocket science nahi hai. Don’t think like a technical analysis like day trading. Think like Warren Buffett fundamental analysis.

Fundamentally is the region strong or not? Invest in outskirts of your city. Outskirts of 360 degrees. Could be north south east west. You need to understand. Which part of that city is booming.

Bombay is surrounded by water on three sides. We can all safely say that South Mumbai is the richest part of Mumbai. Now why has Alibaug seen the maximum growth in Maharashtra? Because it’s easy to commute. From South Mumbai it is a South outskirts. Let’s talk about Igatpuri. Igatpuri has not given the returns it should have given ideally. Why? Because Igatpuri. Put that thought on hold. Let’s talk about Navi Mumbai Panvel. Panvel comes between Panvel Karjat Lonavala. Lonavala comes between Mumbai and Pune. What is more popular Igatpuri or Lonavala Khandala? Lonavala. Why? I’ll tell you why fundamentally. Do you think Nasik can ever become Pune? No. Now Igatpuri is between Mumbai and Nasik. If Nasik can’t become Pune, Igatpuri can never become Khandala. So it’s proximity to hotspot. Mumbai Pune although both are metros. Lonavala Khandala will always do better than something that is between Mumbai and Nasik. No offense to Nasik but Nasik cannot become Pune. At least in the near future which is why Igatpuri will not become. And which is why Alibaug has done very well. Do city equal proximity to hotspots.

Gurugram was perfectly sandwiched between South Delhi and airport. Also Gurugram did very well because of policy paralysis by Delhi government. DDA made, they were not sanctioning any new buildings. So all the new buildings came in Gurugram. Noida can be logic here because of the whole Jewar airport and that entire sector. Now see both of them are actually Southish only. North map of Kundli side which is hardcore Haryana is still going to take some more time as opposed to Gurugram and Noida. Bombay may you have Alibaug which has done the best because South Mumbai can’t have a second.

Equal get proximity to hotspot. So I have fundamental landscape. Why is Mumbai the most expensive city in India? Because there’s no land. It’s surrounded by water from three sides. Similarly Alibaug has done well because it is surrounded. It’s a mirror image of South Mumbai. It is surrounded by water from three sides. Alibaug maybe there’s no land. Plus between the forest Alibaug forest zone. So actual habitable transactable land is very less. Supply less here.

If you look at Karjat, why has Alibaug beaten Karjat again? Karjat grows radially. 360 degrees. Like Pune. It grows radially. Delhi is also growing radially. Mumbai doesn’t grow radially, it can only go either north towards Gujarat or right towards Pune. That entire pie is filled with water so it can’t grow radially. Alibaug also can’t grow radially. So just see how much land you have. Karjat can grow radially so I’ll always invest in Alibaug over Karjat because there’s more supply of land in Karjat. Alibaug me kam land hai. Plus South Mumbai proximity.

Third, infrastructure. This is the most common sensical one. Counter intuitive to you. Real estate prices don’t immediately rise today because of an infrastructure announcement. They don’t. I’ll tell you why. Today as per 2026 and 2025 because of people’s lack of trust in the government. If that same announcement was done abroad, people know it’s going to happen. But isn’t that precisely the reason why I should go and buy land? No but it can also put you in a limbo. I’ll tell you. Do you know the Wilbur Smith report? When do you think the coastal road was first thought of? 30 years ago. Come on. 50 years ago. 1963. Maharashtra became a state in 1960. It was merged with Gujarat earlier. 1963 there’s a report called Wilbur Smith report. They spoke of Atal Setu bridge as well. They said that you should connect Bombay via coastal. Obviously that time the map of the Atal Setu wasn’t as it is today.

Why has it taken us 70 years? Because the files go ringa ringa roses in the offices. Then finally we decide and obviously the budgets. 1963 Trans Harbor link was first sort of soft introduced. It got completed in 2024. Today if a new announcement comes, I’ll say let it get first approved. This is just a mere announcement. So because of that I think don’t believe in propaganda and announcements. Wait for the actual tender. Tender kisko pass hua hai. Adani Group has an L&T got the tender, then bounce on it cuz then you know the boss. Four to six years as a India is a country. Kam permission ke time at the time of the construction. Generally correct. And there’s a joke. The joke is that building something on the sea, building a ceiling is actually easier than building something on the ground cuz you don’t take you have to get right away from everyone. In a democratic country. So the actual engineering part you can solve. So I think once the tender comes, once you know, then you can take a bite.

Also I would see are they going to be any meaningful CBDs there, Central Business Districts? If you see why all the cities like Mumbai have done well, they’ve had Mumbai had India’s first high rise Central Business District which is Nariman Point. And low rise Fort. Hundreds of years old. So what happens in the Central Business District, that becomes the hotspot. For example, Mumbai 3.0 they’re saying they’re going to make it fantastic with data centers and everything is going to be top of the line. We saw what BKC did. Hyderabad is a beautiful example of that. I am stunned by the growth of that city. Gachibowli financial district I had gone there about 14 years ago. And felt like okay there’s a lot of execution. Was fantastic. Like Amazon’s biggest office in India is in Hyderabad. Microsoft, ICICI Bank, all the large offices are there. So of course the real estate creates rental demand. People want to buy homes there. So CBD, infrastructure, land supply, proximity to hotspots. And yes any government policy. Government policies are also very very important.

Maharashtra may I strongly believe right now I’m a die-hard Alibaug fanatic. Also buyer trends changed. Holiday homes became an asset class. People don’t want to, it’s actually hurting people now, the air. People want to be close to nature. Holiday homes has boomed. Religious tourism.

We are obsessed since childhood you should invest in residential flats. Think beyond. I’ll summarize real estate for you. If you want high passive income like a rental yield please invest in warehouses. They give maximum. You can achieve up to 8 to 9% as well. Per annum. If you want capital appreciation, land, nothing comes close to that. And if you want security and preservation of capital, buy apartments. A land is unique like a fingerprint. So my supply ratio will always be 1:400. That’s how I break real estate down.

Now identifying the area because of maximum growth. Identifying the asset class. Why not invest in Ayodhya? Vrindavan. Do you know Vrindavan has more annual tourists than Bali? No. Exactly. Why is Vrindavan so special? They have over 5,000 temples. It’s just a religious hub. Ayodhya we all know. So think out of the box. Religious tourism I’m seeing growth. I’m seeing growth in holiday homes. Goa. And Goa has seen the boom primarily because of people in Delhi and Gurgaon. Beach is a novelty. They go to the hills. Uttarakhand you can’t buy land is very very complex. You need to be son of the soil. For the non-agriculturalists people from not from the state can’t buy.

Asset class and location. Location I already spoke to you about. Asset class may you can identify new trends. I spoke of Ayodhya. I’m bullish on Vrindavan. I’m bullish on Alibaug for holiday homes. Goa was extremely great. Goa’s also given 5 to 6X returns. Now it’s a little saturated. Bullish on Karjat. Still bullish on Karjat? I am but little less bullish as opposed to Alibaug or Goa.

Now we come to the most important part, which is identifying hotspots which will give you 5X 6X return in the next 5 6 years. Is it a gimmick? Absolutely not a gimmick. There’s a saying that if you want to become rich, do a job. If you want to become wealthy invest in assets. Because what happens when you invest in land you’ll buy something worth say two crores minimum entry. So the fact that you get chunky returns and those are life changing generational returns. We’ve done transactions for people where 2023 one of our investors bought a land worth 25 crores. Today it’s 120 crores. 120 crores. Yes. When you do a 4 and 1/2 X a 5X on a chunky investment of 25 crores, it happens.

Let’s talk about Alibaug. Because according to me that fits in the subset of all four. By the way, if you had invested one crore in 2020 in Alibaug, 5 to 6 crores. And in most parts of Alibaug it’s just done well. All these four subsets plus the fifth one was the local trend of holiday homes boomed at the same time. And in fact everything had appreciated the last 5 years, watches appreciated.

Now let’s talk about the logic. First is outskirts. Alibaug is the outskirts. From Colaba you take a jetty. If you want to spend more you can take a speed boat. It’ll take you 20 minutes. 20 minutes it rips through this and in 20 minutes you reach Mandwa jetty. And they’ve always been there. But the game changer, making it a legit outskirts is, from Bhaucha Dhakka from Mazagaon there is a RoRo ship. So it’s a massive ship like a catamaran almost where you can put your car inside and come. So people don’t have to drive. They take the car they put it inside and the ship takes 1 hour to reach here. That’s how I traveled to Alibaug. Beautiful. Convenient. So can I say it’s a legit outskirts now? In 1 hour 1 and 1/2 hour we can reach. From my house I live in near Mahalaxmi to Goregaon takes me longer sometimes depending on the traffic.

Now outskirts is qualified. Hotspot. Like I said earlier, we can all assume that South Mumbai is the richest region in all of India. It is a hotspot. Look at the price arbitrage between the two. Colaba is about 50 to 60,000 rupees a square foot on average. Joint Cuff Parade high-end building 1 lakh rupees a square foot as well. By sea speed boat. There’s a massive price arbitrage.

Plus Alibaug price, the JDJ has become very expensive now. JDJ looking at 12 crores an acre. Which is still cheap. In Bombay you can’t even think of an acre firstly. So there’s a massive price arbitrage. Plus people want farmhouses. Consider it like the Hamptons of Mumbai. Hamptons near New York, where does the rich buy farmhouses? This is the place. The beauty of farmhouses, a farmhouse per acre. Look at the supply getting eaten up for one person for one family. Bombay me acre me 500 families. The supply doesn’t get eaten up that much. You have water there. Plus one rich family buy two acres. Two acres is eaten up from the supply. In Alibaug these are end users, it is not a flipper market like Gurgaon. People are not buying a lot of homes on it which means it is forever removed from the circulating supply. Supply is gone. This is what is happening in Gurgaon. Our dear friend Vishal is anti-ambassador of Gurgaon.

Now let’s talk about infra. We know that after 60 years from Wilbur Smith report at least that Atal Setu got built. 2024 it got sanctioned. Great project. I’m genuinely impressed by the government for doing this. It is India’s longest sea bridge. From South Mumbai from Sewri to Panvel Chirle where it lands. It genuinely takes 20 minutes. And it’s a beautiful drive. From this belt to this side of town. To this Raigad side of town I can reach within 25 minutes. From South Mumbai by car. So we’re talking about infra. Now this has reduced my driving time to Alibaug by a good 30 minutes. Earlier it used to take me 2 and 1/2 hours to drive. Now it takes me 2 hours to drive. I don’t have to go along this route. Genuine value add.

Now something even better is happening. You see this little 2-km creek? They are building a sea bridge here. Karanja Rewas bridge. And it is going to be ready in 1 and 1/2 years. You can see the work in progress. Which means even by road I can come like that through Panvel and then enter Alibaug through like this. 2 years ago I had to come like this. Now what’s going to happen is with this new infra I come down here and this take me 25 minutes. I just go down. And from here I’m right here Alibaug. But you can just directly take the ship you know. Well, some people want to drive. So boxes check on it now by ship by road as well. Road is very important. So I can drive to Alibaug now in 70 minutes.

Because social infrastructure in Alibaug is just absolutely terrible. Terrible beyond words. Another thing what is terrible in Alibaug is the actual infrastructure within Alibaug. It is terrible. The roads are narrow, but it’s somewhat like Goa. Goa social infrastructure is beautiful. Lot of clubs, restaurants, but the roads in Goa are really congested. They’re narrow. So I think Alibaug’s roads are like Goa. They’re not the best, but social infrastructure needs to improve. That is for sure. But it is improving. Hotels are coming in. Five stars are coming in as well. So slowly steadily I think it’ll take 5 years. The social infrastructure will drastically improve. There’s a Starbucks right now in Mandwa Jetty. It was such a big deal for us 2 years back. So Alibaug checks all the boxes except for social infrastructure. It checks all the boxes. Alibaug falls at the outskirt of South Bombay. It has proximity to the hotspot which is Mumbai. Fundamental landscape is such that a small chunk of people will eat up large chunks of land eventually restricting the supply. As a result because of the demand supply mismatch it is bound to be very costly. Plus supply is anyways less cuz it can’t grow radially. There is sea from all three sides. And the fundamental landscape is such that it can’t go radially. So the supply is very less as compared to the projected demand and the infrastructure facilities are there which improve connectivity between Mumbai and Alibaug. And local trend of holiday homes has also tilted in Alibaug’s favor.

Now can we identify three more locations just like Alibaug and apply this thesis? Absolutely. So one thing that I’m bullish on is Mumbai 3.0 region. This entire region. Currently it’s just little policy paralyzed. Right now MMRDA is making plans. Zoning banana. So we don’t know the exact zone. This is great. Mumbai 3.0 this entire Panvel I’m super bullish on.

The beauty of Panvel market fundamentally it’s a stronger market than Alibaug to be honest because demand is bigger in Panvel because it’s a first home destination. Alibaug is not a first home destination. It’s a second home destination. Alibaug is a want. It’s not a need. Panvel is very good for MIG. There the price on data carpet is still 11,000 rupees a square foot which is very very affordable. So demand may be bigger. So fundamentally Panvel is a better option from a fundamental perspective. From the infra perspective, Trans Harbor, Atal Setu, very close to Panvel. I can reach Panvel in 35 minutes. You can also take the freeway. So Panvel checks the outskirts. In fact it’s not in the outskirts right now. People now define outskirts from Panvel. Airport. From Golmaal we know “Jaldi Bol Panvel Jana means”… Absolutely outskirts.

One thing that the government has finally done is the international airport. Now what is happening is in due course of time the passenger capacity of this airport will be close to 9 crore passengers. It’s more than connectivity. Imagine the number of jobs an airport is going to create. It’s estimated that this airport will create 50,000 direct and indirect jobs. So I think the government is genuinely bullish. I’m genuinely happy with what the government has planned. Execution is the key. They’re going to make massive data centers. By the way, this area they plan to make it the biggest data center hub of Asia. But wouldn’t that cause water problem? I’m not sure about the water problem, but I think they can solve it. If they’re planning to make it the largest data center I’m sure they would have thought of something. Because the problem is even in developed places like the US there is a direct correlation between the emergence of data centers and water shortage and water problems in residential areas. One thing I know for sure: the data centers don’t generate jobs. Cuz they’re fully automated. So I don’t think data centers would generate jobs. But institutional investors love that. So the region gets promoted because of that.

Would the emergence of data centers help the land prices appreciate or would it depreciate? I think it will help overall development. When investors look at overall development, it’s not like an industrial red zone or a purple industrial zone. I don’t think industrial data centers would reduce the land prices. For sure. And I genuinely feel like Mumbai 3.0 the land prices are anyways locked in. They’re pretty expensive as of now. So do you recommend investing? I would say wait. Not now. I would say wait for the MMRDA’s plan, the planning authority. Wait for that map to come out. You buy land somewhere and then turns out it’s not in a favorable zone. So zoning hasn’t happened yet. Micro zoning is not happening yet. Then Hiranandanis and Lodhas have been investing a lot. It doesn’t matter for them because those are massive chunks of land. So you get immunity when you buy big land parcels above 25 acres you can change your zones and things like that. Secondly for that region where you see, their zoning has happened. Where they have bought.

Right? Now for example this is Hiranandani. Here the zoning has happened. It’s all here where the zoning is not happened. This chunk. Nena’s much more north. Nena’s closer to the airport. Nena’s zoning has happened. So Nena Panvel, it’s part of Panvel. Nena is a man-made term. Like it’s just a term. Navi Mumbai airport influence notified area. It’s not a pin code. Panvel is a pin code. Now let’s open this plan. This is the development DP plan of Nena. Nena phase one, 12 TPSs. Let’s zoom in a bit. I would say rather invest in Nena. Mumbai 3.0 doesn’t have defined boundaries. I call Mumbai 3.0 as rebranding of Panvel and Raigarh district.

So this is the DP plan. You can already tell this is more intricate than the map I showed you earlier. Here are the roads. There are sectors. There are open spaces. Land to have, the government had to take land from the farmer, give them 40% of the land back. And with the remaining 60% they did all the roads. So a lot of times a farmer’s land could be here originally and let’s you want to make a plot. So much good in barter. Now when you open it this is more developed. Imagine this being from scratch. Won’t this be a more developed city than Mumbai? From scratch. Visualize a completed version of this in 30 years. So this will be completed in the next 30 years? Meaning there’s no time. It has to happen organically.

What does your judgment say? I would say the entire city would take 20 25 years because I’ll tell you why. Say for example you’re a builder you buy this plot for 31. How do I know when you will complete your building on this? Got it. These are plots of land. So where do you think we should invest? I think Nena phase one is great. Because I already know the 12 TPSs they’re in front of you. This is a town planning scheme. There’s 12 of them. I know these maps. So let’s look at the legend first. Sitco is the town planning authority. This is the legend. This is open space. This is amenity space, the pink.

Now in Bombay and Maharashtra and in many parts of India, fundamentally in developing areas and developed areas as well, plots that are abutting wider roads have better FSI. Naturally, because you want to control population that on a wider road. Now for example, let’s look at 641. Let’s look at 645. I would like a 645, prima facie. 645 is good. It’s abutting an amenity plot, which will be a government amenity. But it’s abutting a very big wide road, 45-m road. It’ll be better. Why? It’ll be better because it’s a wider road. It’s a boon, not a curse. As opposed to 20-m road. But isn’t 641 better? 641, this one? Yeah, but you see the access road is only 12 m. FSI relatively kam hoga.

Now, what we do is we go backwards. Acquisition. Lot of farmers want to exit plots. What the government is doing in Nena is that taking the sat bara. Allotting them the plot. There could be a chance that the farmer’s land over his actual some kid over here. Land over his car. Making us go in exchange 40% land 645 milega. So we know it’s going to go on some illegal concept. Got number ko sat bara, got number of that we know which got number ko concept over. So we work backward. What I do is I’ll say I want 645. I’m a donor. Then we go here sat bara. We’ll tell the farmer that as a price of the sat bara. Money just got plot you have to be. 641 me ro. What the price of the sat bara is the same amount. But in 645 is a better plot than 641. Assuming the size is the same of both of them.

So, these are the things that you can do. What is the possibility of this plan changing? This is not going to change. This is set in stone. Even if the government changes, it won’t change. No, this can’t change. This is not going to change. So this is one of those schemes. According to me, I think Nena phase one is better because I know the 12 DPS is out. I can do such detail studying. I can get a plot abutting something that I want. So unless you have a DP, don’t try to invest. Like unless you’re at least sure of what is happening. Not all that glitters is gold. And I’m finding it hard to believe.

Pitfall is execution and timelines. Nena will be like you have to develop as a developed plot, they got 645. How much time will that development take? They have to build roads. It’s like you’re creating a city from scratch. So the execution timelines. If you get this plot in 3 years, your investment into that sat bara was a good investment. But what if the same thing takes 30 years? Would it still not be a good investment? Investment CAGR is a function of time. That will be a limbo stage. There will be a lot of uncertainty. So the only thing, the execution timelines, that is key. If somebody tells me 3 years, it’s a blind investment. It’s an absolute blind investment.

I’m bullish. My third best would be, for me, Alibaug is the best. Second is Panvel. Not Nena? Panvel. Nena is part of Panvel. Nena phase one. What we discussed was for Nena phase one. Phase one, yes. But 23 villages were merged and they made 12 DPS. First is Alibaug, second is Nena phase one, third would be. Again, I’m obsessed with this part of Mumbai with this outskirt, the right side. Not so much on the western side. And not so much on the Thana Bhiwandi. It’s a personal preference as well because like I told you, Nasik can’t become Pune. Things in the middle can’t become what’s in the middle of Bombay and Pune. Third would be I would say a Karjat. So Alibaug number one, Nena number two, and Karjat number three.

But why would you choose Alibaug over Nena because Nena seems to be. And job producing entities will be here. And on the outside it looks like a very pretty place. Then why Alibaug a random holiday home place? So glad you asked me this because there is a secret sauce. The sixth thing that we have missed out that you haven’t spoken of. That’s the soul. That’s the community angle. Nena Panvel is a first home segment. Affordable price. 1 crore me ghar milega. The beauty of that is it’s a forever market. Slowdown me bhi thoda slow hoga. Alibaug slowdown me zyada slow hoga. But here’s one thing that you’re missing out. Alibaug has that community of ultra rich and nice. Community is something that holds the prices together. The rich in DLF and anywhere in Altamount Road, people are not buying four BHKs in a building for 60 crores for the apartment. They’re looking for access. They are buying them in DLF people are buying 60 crore apartments to be next to each other. It’s a filtering mechanism. You have to network. And people have the holding capacity together. You don’t see a distressed sale that much in Altamount Road in a building. Prices will stay put. So, the power of community. It’s like power of going to a good school, the alumni. Power of a good college network, same community with real estate also applies. Alibaug has that. It’s one of those niche holiday home communities that have been set up. It’s aspirational. People want a piece of Alibaug. People want to be in Malabar Hill. People want to be in Altamount Road next to an Ambani. People want to be in Bandra and Carter Road. Prestige value it has. So that’s a little secret sauce. It may not be a technical answer, but it matters. People want to be in that pin code.

Let me just quickly summarize all of our learnings. Firstly, you need to understand that finding the right piece of land is not a question of luck. It’s only a question of calculation and fundamental analysis. Firstly, do not buy land if you need returns in about 2 to 3 years. Only invest in land if you’re expecting returns in about 10 years or when you have the appetite of risk to hold the land for 10 years or you’re patient enough to stay put for 10 years even if there is some financial problem in your life. To buy an agricultural land, you have to be an agriculturalist. And if you’re not, then you still buy land, but in 5 years you’ll have to convert and you can take advantage of section 63 1C in Maharashtra.

Before asset allocation, you have to understand that if you want to optimize for rental yield, buy a warehouse 8 to 9%. If you want to optimize for capital appreciation, buy a land. If you want to optimize for preservation of wealth, then buy a residential property.

Now, as far as land due diligence is concerned, it is very important that after shortlisting, you study that particular area and understand whether that beautiful piece of land is really worth the purchase or not because more often than not, beautiful land parcels are actually terrible investments. For example, we spoke about the offset that needs to be established between the water body and the property. So, it could range between 1 m to 20 m. If it’s 20 m and your land parcel falls between 10 to 15 m, you’ll have a problem. You’ll either have to sacrifice the land or sometimes you might not be allowed to build anything over there itself. It’s 0 to 100 m depending on the size of the water body and 500 m from the sea. Which is why zoning is very very important. So, you got to take into consideration the forest zone, the blue zone, everything else so that it is pretty clear whether that land is even worth investing or not.

Then you spoke about how do we identify a land? It’s pretty simple, pretty straightforward, but very difficult. Find a piece of land that falls in the outskirts. It needs to have proximity to a hotspot like Mumbai. The fundamental landscape of the place should be in such a way that the demand supply mismatch should happen. If that happens, then there’s a possibility of land appreciation. If not, then because of immense supply the appreciation may not be as impressive as compared to a place like Alibaug where the supply is actually restricted.

Then we spoke about the factor of infrastructure. Central Business District. Raw material becomes valuable for other people to construct buildings on top of it and sell those homes. And then we apply this to Mumbai 3.0 and Alibaug. When it comes to Mumbai, MMRDA is yet to give out the zoning. Yes, they’re going to make the DP plans. Once the DP plan comes out, then it makes sense to invest. But when it comes to NAINA, NAINA is not a particular location. It’s just an area where the government has actually put together 23 villages and they’ve made a development plan and because it’s an open canvas, the possibility of it being planned very well is very high. MMRDA’s plan is something that we discussed. Then you have wider roads, better roads, and wider roads also mean better FSI. So, that particular plot becomes a much better investment. Like we saw for 645. If you can gauge that map and check for the most desirable locations, you’ll be able to find the right spot. So, moral of the story is DP plan, tender nikle, due diligence. The likelihood of the land parcel being valuable is very very high. Over there if you can get a good deal because somebody else requires liquidity, then you’ve got a great shot at making immense wealth. Thank you so much.