Inflation Jobs War Kalshis Signals Itk With Cathie Wood

TITLE: Inflation, Jobs, War: Kalshi’s Signals | ITK With Cathie Wood CHANNEL: ARK Invest DATE: 2026-04-10 ---TRANSCRIPT--- In this episode, you’ll learn a lot more about how ARK and Kelshi have partnered and how maybe this is the start of a major new financial innovation wave. Greetings everyone. Uh my name is Kathy Wood, CEO and CIO of Arc Invest. Uh and we have a very special in the no today. We know it’s not employment Friday. Um but it is uh uh with great pleasure that uh we announce our partnership with Calshi. And with me here today is the person who made it happen. Uh Nick Roose, our director of research for consumer AI and fintech. Welcome Nick.

Thank you Kathy. So, Nick, why don’t you, since you uh have been uh critical to establishing this uh partnership, why don’t you set it up and uh give our viewers a sense of what they’re going to see today?

Yeah, thank you so much, Kathy, and thank you for having me on. Um I think this partnership is years uh months in the making. If you think about when we really started first looking at prediction markets for data insights, this goes back a few years now. Um, but it really is months in the making. We’ve been talking with the Koshi team because what we realized was you we’re looking at all of these markets that Koshi and and other platforms have created. Um, but we realize is that there is a certain level of insight that we have uh looking at the technology platforms that we cover, the companies we cover, the macroeconomic statistics that you go over in this show, realizing that some of the markets we would like to see actually had not been created. And so we actually reached out to Koshi and said, “Hey, we think that this could be a great opportunity to collaborate, to share ideas, to surface data and insights that we think others will also find valuable and create markets around those and then be able to surface the wisdom of the crowd. Right now, we’re not participating in these markets. We’re using them as data insights. So, we’re not trading in them. We’re looking at them as data insights because we want to hear what you, the listener, and others around the world think about some of the opportunities we’re looking at. So, that’s what we’ve done with Koshi. You’ll see a number of those markets today. There’s also some markets you won’t see today because they’re more focused in the genomics space. There’s a new medicine tab now on Koshi, and there’s going to be plenty more markets listed that cover all different sorts of interesting, innovative technologies uh going forward. This is an ongoing partnership that we’re really excited about.

Yeah. And Nick, as we were uh discussing this and have been discussing this for several months, uh it occurred to me in speaking with Kelshi that wait a minute, this uh this movement is uh the beginnings, I think, of uh bringing uh uh active equity management uh back into style. uh because we’re we’re talking about events that should move stocks. And if we have more people looking for and at those events, uh they’re going to be interested in investing in uh some of these uh opportunities uh and maybe taking a little bit out of that passive portfolio that is uh you know uh tied to the broaderbased indexes. So, I’m pretty excited about this. This uh this could be the beginning of a resurgence in active equity management.

Yeah, absolutely. And I think when we’ve talked about it, prediction markets really represent the purest form of risk out there because as you point out, Kathy, you can go directly to the underlying discrete event that then moves the needle on an equity. And so, I actually think of these tools as almost the inverse of derivatives, right? It’s the underlying catalyst that will drive the performance of a stock up or down. And so whereas you may want to hedge out some of that risk using a put call spread or many other forms of of of hedging, now you have direct access to those underlying events, business KPIs, macroeconomic events where you don’t need to um take on the extra extra risk that is associated with the market, right? If you don’t want to be exposed to what is happening in Iran, well, you don’t need to take on that exposure through derivatives, which are going to inherently have some of that in it, you can go directly to the underlying event. Um, so I think it’s a really amazing opportunity for the financial markets when we’ve started doing this research and I’ll give a sneak preview. I think you know in the medium term, so over the next few years, we believe that this market could explode up to $5 trillion in notional volume. Now, right now, Koshi is on an annualized run rate to do around 120 $130 billion in notional volume for this year. So, we’re talking about a massive explosion of where this total market is headed. But when you put it into the perspective of the total derivatives market, which in 2024 was around $715 trillion in notional volume, you’re only talking about 70 basis points, right? That five trillion dollar figure over 715. So, it’s a drop in the bucket uh compared to where traditional derivatives sit today. Um, and as you point out, I think this is an expansion of the addressable market that derivatives uh don’t necessarily uh give you today in terms of the risk profile.

Yeah, pretty exciting. Uh so, innovation in the financial world. Love it. We’re going to go through uh some of these charts. We’ll do a lot of our normal in the no drill. Um, but we’ve got some calcy Cali charts to accompany uh some some of the charts we normally show you. Um, so as here we go. Okay, so let’s uh let’s start with our first Cali slide. And here you can see uh in the prediction markets uh one of the questions we put in is uh will the US federal deficit to GDP ratio drop below 5% for fiscal year 2026. Now fiscal year means through the end of September. So uh the year through September of 26. And as you can see here uh as the war in the Middle East has uh has extended uh the odds that uh the GDP the debt deficit to GDP ratio drops below 5%. Uh those have dropped uh understandably. So let’s take a look at where we are. So here is the deficit to GDP. It’s at about 5.12%. Uh, and you can see it was moving in the right direction before the war. Uh, and we really thought it was going to drop below 5% and head for that 3% which is Treasury Secretary Bessant’s uh, goal for the end of 28. In fact, we thought uh that it was going to drop below that 3% um well before before uh the end of 28. Uh well, the war has changed that uh now the defense bud budget is going up uh and it was already at about a trillion dollars. And just to put this in in perspective, uh the deficit is uh is at about uh well the total government spending is at about $7 trillion. Uh and so one of that is defense, two of that is health care. And uh one of the downward pressures on the budget is health care. We’ve heard about Medicare actually cutting prices dramatically uh in in terms of some of the uh most heavily used drugs out there. We’re also seeing Doge continue uh to cut back on federal employment. Uh and yet we do have this war. So the odds have gone down, certainly have uh in the short term. But if we uh if we get past this period uh into fiscal 27, we think we’ll have another shot at uh getting below 5% and heading actually very quickly to 3%. And the reason for that is uh we see GDP growing so much more quickly than many economists expect. Uh but very short term uh the odds the odds have dropped.

Um here’s another reason the odds have dropped. Um but this is a good news reason. Uh I’ve mentioned on on past in the nose uh the accelerated depreciation that was in the tax package last year and you can see the impact already that it’s having. So corporate tax receipts are uh going to be I think because of the accelerated depreciation um roughly 150 billion uh dollars lower. Now obviously that’s good news for the economy. It’s one reason that we expect GDP growth to accelerate fairly dramatically uh in in the not tooistant future. Um, and here, uh, and we’ve presented these deficits together. Deficit, uh, uh, the I just showed you the federal deficit as a percent of GDP. Here’s the other deficit that bothers well, especially President Trump. I don’t think it bothers too many other people, but uh, his objective is to move us into surplus. And you can see we have spent um, many, many years in a deficit position. And from our point of view, uh we’ll probably continue to spend uh more years in deficit. Why is that? It is because we think with the stimulative um fiscal policy uh especially that tax package uh that the US economy is going to boom relative to other economies. So we’re going to be importing more than we export. Uh now the other side of this which makes uh which which takes away the sting that I think President Trump thinks exists is a capital surplus. It means uh more investment dollars coming into the United States uh uh relative to our dollars going elsewhere in the world. Uh so a capital surplus.

Um, here is uh another take and I’m going to credit Don Luswin uh from uh uh Trend Macro uh for this chart. uh and what he does trying to help people understand uh the the debt and the deficit uh situation is he says you know when you compare debt to uh GDP what you’re comparing is a a balance sheet item to an income statement item the equivalent of uh really you should uh be comparing debt to equity. So, uh equity is the the black line. Uh debt is the purple and GDP is the red. And if we go to the next chart, you will see that while debt to GDP is above uh one here, the one ratio, you can see debt to equity is at 0.5 and actually it’s very low by historical standards. Uh the other thing I will say is uh if you look at debt to assets, another balance sheet item, um the asset side of the US balance sheet is really at cost. What did the land cost? What did the gold cost when it went onto the federal balance sheet? Uh well, some of these costs were 50 to 75 years ago. And so if we if we really thought about this, we could sell some of our land and I forget how much land the government owns. It’s a subst I think it’s over a quarter of all the land in the United States. Uh so we could defay the debt that way. Now I’m not recommending it and we do want uh uh discipline. So I’m very happy that there is a a concern about the deficit and the debt uh because if you think about government spending which is the problem um every incremental uh dollar in government spending uh is effectively an incremental tax dollar where you’ve either got to pay for it today uh in taxes tomorrow in taxes or the most regressive tax of all is inflated away which we don’t think that’s going to happen. Uh but that is what happened during the 70s.

So back to Kelshi another uh hotly debated issue is the dollar. Uh DXY is the trade weighted dollar. Um it’s only six countries. It’s not the 26 countries in the Fed’s measure. Um it doesn’t include China, the the yuan for example. Uh but uh how high will the dollar get? Uh last year the narrative was the US exceptionalism is dead. The dollar is in decline and uh it’s uh inexurable. It’s it’s going to continue. And you can see here um many uh people um believe that the dollar will uh end the year as measured by the DXY at 1036. Now that is very interesting to us because you can see on the next page where we are in the context of history. Uh we are just below 99. So what Kelshi is suggesting is uh the the people who are um willing to trade or make a prediction uh they actually think the dollar is going to go up uh and that goes against conventional uh wisdom. Now we agree that uh it is going to go up uh mostly because of what I just mentioned about foreign direct investment and our capital friendly businessfriendly tax policies. Also deregulation is um we think going to increase the return on investment in the United States relative to that in the rest of the world. That is dollar positive. And we take this chart all the way back into the early 80s. Why? Uh it is uh because we like to illustrate what happened during regonomics. And we think Trumpanomics uh resembles greatly actually uh regonomics. And look what happened to the dollar back then. Now it was coming from the depths of despair in the late 70s but it really went into overdrive to the point where all the treasury and monetary ministers around the world got together and said this is becoming a deflationary risk to the rest of the world uh because a lot of dollar a lot of debt is denominated was and still is uh denominated in dollars. So the dollar, the debt service was getting more and more expensive back then. Uh we think we’re not going to see a surge like we did in the early 80s, but we think the pressure is to the upside. And if you look at this chart in in the context of history, you will see that we are closer if you take out that that boom in the early 80s, we’re closer to the higher end of uh the dollar’s range uh than we are to the lower end. And again, I think that goes against con conventional thinking right now.

Uh here we’re moving into monetary policy. uh and and away from fiscal policy. Um and you can see money growth is up to roughly 5%. So it has continued to accelerate it having spent some time in negative territory after the uncontrolled money growth uh postcoid. uh you can see uh that is mapped in green against the CPI and uh this is important. It’s setting us up uh for for another Kelshi chart. Um and you can see that uh there there is a loose connection between these two metrics. Part of the reason there’s a loose connection is um velocity. Sometimes when the velocity of money moves down uh that takes uh this the u stimulus out of money growth uh because the rate at which money is turning is slowing down and that typically happens when people are afraid concerned uh or or feeling uh somewhat negative about their circumstances.

So uh you can see here uh that velocity actually has been in a downtrend since the late 90s. Uh and that is when baby boomers started to retire. Uh very very those were the very early baby boomers. uh but also it was around the time that China entered the WTO and there there was a lot of concern in the United States our manufacturing sector effectively uh was exported to China. Uh and so there were concerns and I I think those two variables caused the secular decline. Well, baby boomers are still retiring and again when they retire, you know, they’re not as free spending. Uh, and um, we are now seeing, however, the reversal of the the the shipment of our manufacturing sector over to China. Uh, and I think our tax package is one reason for that. So maybe we’re seeing a secular turn in velocity. Um if if not it will probably flatline here and and you know because baby boomers are retiring but the manufacturing is coming back and other kinds of investment coming back. Maybe we flatline here and that 5% money growth uh is uh what is impacting directly the economy and if you think about 5% money growth that would effectively mean nominal GDP growth would be around 5%. uh and that would give us room uh we think real growth thanks to productivity is going to accelerate into the three four five% range that would leave very little room for inflation.

So, here’s another look at monetary policy from a very short-term point of view. Meaning, it’s the yield curve as measured by the 2-year Treasury yield minus the three-month Treasury yield. And in negative territory, that would suggest the Fed was leaning uh uh I would say hawkish or uh restrictive. And you can see we’ve just crossed into a positive slope. Uh just crossed. So uh maybe the Fed is uh operating at uh a neutral rate. It’s not too hawkish. It’s not too dovish. Uh we’re in a neutral zone uh right now.

And this chart I’ve featured a number of times. I I find it fascinating. Uh this is the yield curve again, but it’s the 10-year Treasury yield uh minus the 2-year Treasury yield. And this is the one most commonly referenced. You can see the downtrend that’s been in place really since o the 0809 uh debacle, the global financial crisis. And the reason I’m interested is even after COVID when monetary authorities around the world were, you know, put the accelerator to the floor and fiscal policy uh was proflegate. I mean, just money thrown at the problem around the world. we couldn’t get this measure of the yield curve back into that 200 to 300 uh basis point range. Uh and I just have been wondering what does that mean? Uh effectively it means that that the long-term Treasury yield was not following short rates the way it normally does. Uh and why would that be? And here again, have we hit another peak and are we tipping over again? I don’t know. But what that would tell us and of course consider the source, it would fit in with our sort of deflationary undercurrent thesis around technology. uh uh and and we saw this in the 50 years uh that ended in the late 20s uh the late 20s and the 1900s uh which was also ripe uh with uh innovation. So telephone, electricity, internal combustion engine uh all um riding on top of the railroads that were built out in the 1800s. Um well the equivalent to the railroads this time where is the internet in the digital world and now we have uh we have robotics energy storage AI very importantly AI uh blockchain technology and uh multiomics technology all of those are highly deflationary trends uh and could the yield curve be picking up on that we think it might

now here’s um productivity which uh is a part of that story. Uh the technology uh uh the innovation platforms that I just mentioned uh involve 15 different technologies uh they’re converging and we think that productivity growth is going to soar in uh in the next few years. So here we ask the question will non-farm productivity uh increase above 3% in any quarter this is on a year-over-year basis in any quarter in 26 and you can see there’s a 42% uh probability um well we think the probability actually is is much higher than that and it’s actually for a statistical reason if you look at productivity today you can see We’re at roughly 2.5%. And you can also see again if you look across this chart, this is in the higher half of the history of this chart. So uh pretty strong. Uh and as we have said on in the know many times, we’ve been in a rolling recession and this is what has happened. That’s so interesting. Housing has been down and out. Manufacturing’s been down and out. Small business down and out. Consumers have been in a funk uh as measured by sentiment and productivity is at 2.5%. So we believe that these technologies are already having an impact on productivity and we think in the first quarter when the numbers are reported and they’ll be revised uh two times I think but when uh the the first quarter number is reported if it is up at all on a quartertoarter basis uh so from the fourth quarter to the first quarter Um because last year’s first quarter was down u roughly 0.9%. On a quartertoquarter basis if it’s up at all. Now that’s annualized. If it’s up at all uh in the first quarter and we think it will be on a quarterto quarter basis that will take the year-over-year above 3%. Now, I know why it’s probably at a low 42%. It’s because people are looking at some very big productivity numbers in the second and third quarter of last year, 4.2%, 5.2%. And if we’re below those uh numbers, uh then, you know, this will come back down. Nonetheless, that first quarter might actually be above 3%.

So, and here’s unit labor costs 2.3 2.4% on a year-over-year basis. Uh, and so for those of you worried about inflation, uh, you can see this looks very different from postcoid. Uh, unit labor costs soared. And one of the reasons is wage growth is very well behaved. Very well behaved. It was not after COVID as companies were scrambling to find employees to so that they could survive the companies could survive and the employees actually um that’s not the case right now. In fact, a lot of uh employment indicators uh suggest uh we’re uh we’re we’re in a weak environment and part of it is AI entry level jobs are not there for college graduates the way uh they have been in the past. Uh so unit labor costs this is um underlying uh inflation 2.4%. Uh what’s interesting about that is if you look at the tips market, that’s what the tips market says inflation is going to be. In other words, no real improvement for from here. If we’re right and productivity starts scaling uh three and into next year four or 5% uh this unit labor cost uh growth rate will come down and underlying inflation will come down.

Uh here are some other reasons inflation’s coming down. Again, very different from postcoid when we had that supply shock and many people are saying we’re in another supply shock. Uh and we are when it comes to oil for sure, but we are not in a broad-based uh uh supply shock uh like we were after COVID. Uh nothing like it. In fact, quite the opposite in housing. Housing uh inflation is nil for existing home prices uh and still negative for uh for new home prices. And um and yet here you do see the supply shock uh when it comes to oil. How long will this last? Well, uh the longer uh the Middle East turmoil uh uh continues um the longer this supply shock will last. And the question is who’s going to pay for it? Is it going to get through to the consumer price level or is it going to be eaten by uh the the um by by the consumer companies who have to pay up uh but can’t get their pricing through to the end consumer. And we have a strong point of view about that.

Here’s another chart. This is commodity broad-based uh commodity index and you can see a bit of a supply shock but I would submit that it is more than that. It is demand going up relative to supply and this is a call for action a call for more supply. Uh again who’s going to pay for this is the question. Is it going to get through to the consumer price level?

Now, here is the cali betting on that. Uh, this is the PPI, a year-over-year percent change minus the CPI, year-over-year percent change. Uh, is it going to be is the PPI inflation rate going to be above the CPI inflation rate for three consecutive months in 2026? So you can see here that the market is pretty sure that producer price inflation is going to surpass uh consumer price inflation on a year-over-year basis uh for three consecutive months this year. Now that’s very interesting. U now what is this saying? Well, you can see it started out closer to uh 25 or 20% probability, moved to 30 uh as the initial stages of the war in Iran took off and then everyone thought it was going to be over quickly, settled back, and you can see what has happened since. Uh this is more extended than many observers uh predicted. Uh and so that’s where there’s certainty. Uh so far as you can see on the next chart, what’s interesting about this is we already have two months where the PPI inflation rate has surpassed the CPI inflation rate. Two consecutive months. Um last in February, the PPI was 3.4% at a a year-over-year rate and uh the CPI 2.4. Um, and so this when the PPI is released on April 14th, this contract will probably close out and, you know, will probably roll into uh another one uh maybe six consecutive months or or something like that. We shall see.

Um but let me show you uh yes uh I’ve shown you the uh the total PPI and CPI but here on this chart is the core CPI minus the core PPI and uh you can see that uh even really be or maybe it is in conjunction with the war uh a lot of the producer prices uh other than food and energy have been increasing uh at an accelerated rate while the CPI which you see there in purple has been decelerating. That’s interesting. That’s really interesting. What does this say? It’s saying perhaps that uh consumer goods companies are not able to pass uh the cost increases along and that their margins probably will be squeezed. Uh and here you can see that that is true according to trueflation. So, as measured by trueflation, the year-over-year uh uh price consumer inflation rate is about 1.7%. Uh now, it got as low, I think, as 1.4 or 1.3 has come up a little bit here, uh but has not gone anywhere near that uh 3.4% PPI inflation rate. Uh even though gasoline prices are a big a big psychological um uh and and impactful category, other prices must either be coming down uh uh or uh or or I find it difficult to explain and even more so when we look at the core trueflation inflation rate, it’s at 1.1%. And you can see it struggled in the 2 to 3% range uh for uh two and a half years or so. It has resolved to the downside. And if you look at what’s going on right now, um we haven’t seen this kind of uh CPI inflation core inflation rate since co uh when we were in dire straits. So that is very interesting.

Uh and uh here you can see one of the things that’s going on with the PPI. Uh the PPI is reflecting what’s going on in the manufacturing sector to be sure. This is the purchasing managers index and and there’s a clear pickup. Uh now I think uh that this is related to our tax package uh as I explained before and some of the stimulus is getting into our economy stimulating the supply side of the economy which will be good uh longer run for the overall inflation rate. Manufacturers are responding to uh those higher prices and they are producing more. Uh here you can see this is an outright boom. Um it’s uh an indicator that I I believe uh uh that Piper Sandler um uh gave us or produced. Uh and you can see it is flat this is US flatbed truck market demand index. So this is an indicator that something’s booming out there. uh and no one’s using the word boom. Uh but I think there is a call to action. The pricing certainly is is one reason, but I also think there’s a lot more foreign direct investment coming into the United States. Some of it might be tariff related. Some of it is because deregulation and tax policy are so friendly. Uh so that’s interesting.

uh you can see on the services sector uh both orders and unfortunately prices prices again I think being impacted by what’s going on in the Middle East and it may be opportunistic pricing around that um normally uh when we see uh new orders pick up uh the the prices are are coming down uh and I do think that uh uh that the the purple chart will resolve uh to the downside once the Middle East turmoil clears up to some extent. Here is why the pricing is not getting through. Sentiment is terrible. Uh as measured by the University of Michigan and these are uh the three income uh levels low, mid and high. Uh the lower income level in the last month uh dropped back to its recent low. So affordability unfortunately still a massive problem and could really impact the midterm elections.

Uh un unemployment here’s confidence in as measured by jobs easy to get minus jobs hard to get. Uh confidence is deteriorating here. Now, a bright spot uh is that the entrylevel jobs, remember that employment unemployment rate went before revisions up to 11%. It’s now reversing uh to 8 and a half%. And maybe what’s going on there is um just like ARC is doing, you know, we’re a pretty lean machine. And at one point and I said, you know, I don’t think we’ll be hiring people because AI is making us all so much more productive. But uh on the business side especially um we are we need to hire more people because what is the refrain I’m hearing from our employee base? It is you know I know all these tools are out there but I don’t have any time to experiment. uh I I have too much on my plate. And so we’re bringing in younger people with one foot uh uh through the AI door uh and very eager to uh introduce us to new productivity enhancing ideas. Maybe that’s what’s going on a little bit more broadly here. I don’t know.

Uh here you can see another uh stress point saving rate down. it dropped to 4% in today’s report. uh as uh income was very weak uh but spending again mostly prices uh was uh lifted and so a low saving rate uh is typically takes place when consumers have no choice and I think that’s where we are right now or uh when there’s um an incredible amount of optimism out there and uh more and more people are willing uh to live on the edge a bit more. We think it’s uh more the former than the latter. Here you can see an indicator delinquency rates on autos all-time highs for subprime uh and and even close to all-time highs for uh the overall here you can see existing home sales. This is not a booming economy at the consumer end at least. that could change if manufacturing uh is leading the way. Uh and uh and we think it is. Of course, the recent backup in interest rates does not help this. Uh we also see builders trying to clear uh clear their lots of houses. These are new uh one family houses for sale. Those are starting to come down. They’re they’re cutting prices to move them.

Uh and then here are a few market indicators. Uh we’ve spent a long time on in the no. So we’ll just quickly go through them. Uh we’re seeing the S&P to gold and we’ve been watching this carefully. Remember it was uh it was a leading indicator for some very bad times in the 70s and there are some strategists out there who think we’re going back into those bad times. We do not. Uh but this is uncomfortable in that it has tipped down. This is the offset to some extent in until very recently. It’s crude oil uh S&P to crude oil. Uh and that uptrend is still in place even with the the really near more than 50% increase in uh oil prices. Here’s uh Bitcoin to gold. Bitcoin is starting to outperform gold again. Gold peaked January 28th, the day that uh Worsh was uh announced as um uh the next Fed chairman if Congress approves him. Uh and and he is slightly hawkish. So uh Bitcoin has been moving up relative to gold. That’s that’s interesting.

And then uh just the last two charts, two or three charts here. This one is still a puzzle. Why is that green line metals to gold still going down? Is it China? Is something really uh wrong in China? I don’t know if it’s just China. Um but it is puzzling especially uh especially uh now that the gold price has has gone down from nearly I think it was almost was it $5600 down to $4,400. Uh we haven’t seen a clear turn in this uh in this variable which is quite interesting. It used to correlate very well with uh the uh with the 10-year Treasury yield which you see in purple there. Um they they parted ways in 22 when the Fed started tightening and I would say when uh central banks started selling gold I mean buying gold and selling dollars and again the yen carry trade unwinding starting in the summer of 24. Um, so all of those should be in there now. And my guess is that uh the the the 10-year Treasury yield is probably going to fall because we’ve had a lot of major forces pushing it up. Uh not the least is of which has been the recent flare up in commodity prices. uh if we’re right and supply the supply side of the economy is coming uh to the rescue, uh we’re we’re probably going to be surprised at um uh interest rates coming down as opposed to going up.

And a final chart here, uh final two charts here, credit default swaps on banks, you know, private credit, is this infecting, uh is it going to be systemic issue? Uh this chart would suggest no, it’s not backing up into the banking system. And this is the high yield uh chart. So junk bonds relative to treasuries, they’re not uh seeing any any anything on the horizon bothersome. In in fact, they’re near all-time lows. So uh the these charts, these last two charts would say nothing to worry about. We know there’s a lot to worry about. uh the market has gone through a bout of volatility here. Uh but if we’re right that there’s a boom that inflation is going to resolve uh to the downside after this conflict uh passes uh and that productivity, profitability is going to increase. Um we think that’s very positive for the equity markets. Uh and I will say one last thing, profit measures came out for the fourth quarter. uh and they look very good. Uh now again active management is going to be important here. Is uh margin uh compression going to be a problem for consumer goods and related companies? Uh in the short term we think it is. uh longer term we think it will be uh another reason for companies to harness AI and other productivity tools uh to to stem decline in margins and and maybe even increase margins in the future. So with that, thank you very much. I know this has been a long one. We wanted to introduce Cali. We’re excited about that partnership and we’re really excited uh uh about the notion that uh this this these prediction markets could bring active equity management back into style and which group would that help the most? We think and we have a lot of um questions in the multiomic sphere to put into prediction markets to help educate to help educate people about the unbelievable opportunities in the space uh and educate them about how inefficiently valued uh that part of the market is. Uh so with that until next month I will say goodbye and wish you a good month.